All over the country, print and broadcast media of every stripe are obsessing over the ongoing New York trial of former President Donald Trump – the first ex-president (and first candidate for the presidency) ever charged in a “criminal” trial. Mr. Trump is accused of having paid “hush money” to porn star Stormy Daniels to keep her quiet about illegal things Mr. Trump had allegedly done. Prosecutors charge that the hush money payment of $130,000 was illegal because its intention was to influence the outcome of the 2016 election, which Mr. Trump eventually won.
This writer is not informed enough to critique the merits of the case brought against Mr. Trump. Indeed, reports I have read and seen on TV are so variegated, and so confused, that they make me wonder if even the jury understands the case, which seems complex, mysterious, and non-Constitutional in some aspects. One legal expert after another has declared that the paper-thin case is certain to be overturned on appeal, should the jury actually bring a guilty verdict.
Other political analysts have expounded on how they think a guilty or not guilty verdict will affect Mr. Trump’s chances in the November election, with no consensus on what might happen. Pro-Trump people seem convinced that he’ll be helped by a not guilty verdict, but will skate past a guilty verdict because the People are for him. Conversely, his opponents say a guilty verdict will finish him, and might even put him in jail. Some declare that a not guilty verdict will enrage enough voters to defeat him.
My approach here is a little different because I see the actual election as the key element, while the trial – such as it is – is merely the hole card which Mr. Trump’s political opponents will play to engineer his defeat. Whatever verdict is rendered, Mr. Trump is almost certain to lose the election because his opponents will find enough mail-in votes in key states to give Joe Biden the win. I see four trial-verdicts and aftermaths as possibilities:
[1] Guilty, with appeal occurring after the election. In the political hothouse of New York, jurors might very well have been “warned” that a guilty verdict is expected. So it’s hard to imagine any other verdict. Polls have continued to show increasing support for Mr. Trump, as the controversial witnesses continued to smear him. But my theory is that his opponents will manage to find enough mail-in votes to defeat him in key states where the in-person vote is close. The story will be that voters turned against him because of the trial-verdict.
[2] Guilty, but verdict overturned by the Supreme Court before the election. This trial-result seems unlikely, but its occurrence will cause Mr. Trump’s opponents to act as in [1], while arguing that voters enraged by the SCOTUS “interference” in the election had turned against him.
[3] Hung jury, but no retrial before the election. This result seems possible, if the views of various legal experts are credible. One rogue-juror could do it. Trump-supporters will declare that their guy has beaten the rap. But his opponents will maintain that “enraged” voters had turned against him, and will find enough late-counted ballots to defeat him.
[4] Not guilty. Political leanings in New York being what they are, this result is not very likely. Should it occur, Mr. Trump’s national support numbers will soar, and some pundits will predict his election-victory. Nevertheless, Mr. Trump’s opponents will argue, as in [3], that voters soured by the verdict had turned against him. And enough key states will give Joe Biden their electoral votes to put him over the top.
I’ll probably get denounced for these radical views, and will be called all sorts of nasty names by people who continue to maintain that no election-cheating occurred in 2020. I’ll be very happy if my predictions are proved wrong, but I’ll be surprised, too. This time, the trial of Mr. Trump is Democrats’ hole card. It allows their candidate to win, no matter how the cards fall.
Republicans were taken off-guard by the mail-in ballot scams in 2020, but that shouldn’t happen a second time if people charged with guarding the vote are on the ball. As the old saying goes, “Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me.”
“Forewarned is forearmed.”
“It was the best of times; it was the worst of times.” (Charles Dickens)
6 comments
I’ll still take a Whoremunger over a Warmonger.
This case was leapfrogged over others. President Trump’s appeal needs to be leapfrogged to the US Supreme Court.
It’s a sad day for our Constitutional Republic. [We don’t have a democracy–aka mob rule.]
I read this “judge” was not even in the 24 (or so) judges’ pool.
This confirms that a communist coup occurred in 2020 and now they are trying to solidify their power. There claim will be that the American people voted against Trump because he was a felon while they stuff the ballot boxes once again.
Trump was just found guilty of all charges. The next step with these communist tyrants is to jail him so he can’t campaign. This confirms the fact that america is now governed by evil people who hate everything America stands for.
The question still stands unanswered: Is John Wayne’s Ghost as much of a draft dodger as he was? Quit babbling and go get a kraut to wipe away your tears, DT will never see the inside of a jail.
There is no question. You are an america hater.