Lessons from June 18 primary – money, Trump and identity politics rule

It’s not an exact science to get lessons from primaries, where turnout can be as low as 10% and when voters can choose which primary they want to vote in (as is the case in Virginia).

But I will go ahead and play political scientist here and give you some takeaways from what happened in Virginia on Tuesday.

REPUBLICANS – TRUMP’S ENDORSEMENT AND MONEY MATTERS:  Hung Cao, the best financed among five running for the GOP nomination to face incumbent Democrat Tim Kaine, also had Trump’s endorsement.  

None of Cao’s opponents came close to beating him, despite, the scandal about his formation of a PAC that benefited his campaign    not the Republicans he said he was going to help in 2023, and being dismissive of visiting far flung areas of the state and avoiding debates 

Cao won the primary with 166,668 votes (61.79%}.  Coming in second was Scott Parkinson, with only 10.95% of the vote – not even close.  Collectively, his four opponents got 100,000  votes, which means if Cao faced just ONE opponent in the primary, instead of four dividing the vote, he still would have won the nomination to face Kaine.

Cao is a prolific fundraiser who relies heavily on the Vietnamese communities in California and Virginia (his family fled Vietnam when he was four).  I had thought the Vietnamese community in Northern Virginia would have fueled his vote, but in looking at his vote, he won pretty much every county and  city in the state, including areas where the Vietnamese community is small.

Money, Trump’s endorsement and ballot experience (he lost a District 10 House race in 2022) were the key factors in Cao’s overwhelming win.    

In the 5^th district, it appears State Sen. John McGuire, who had Trump’s endorsement, eked out a win over incumbent Rep. Bob Good, by about 350 votes – but the race has not been officially called as of this writing.

This was a race about payback.  Good had endorsed Ron DeSantis in the presidential primary and although he immediately backed Trump when DeSantis got out, some of his statements about the former president stuck with Trump, who said in an interview “He turned his back on our incredible Movement, and was constantly attacking and fighting me until recently, when he gave me a warm and ‘loving’ Endorsement — But really, it was too late! The damage had been done.”

Former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy and Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene also backed McGuire.  McCarthy’s PACs put millions into the race to defeat Good, who was one of eight Republicans who voted to oust him as speaker, which Democrats joined in on.  McCarthy also tried to unseat South Carolina Rep. Nancy Mace, one of the eight, and that failed earlier this month.

I wonder why McCarthy is spending millions to defeat Republicans instead of Democrats this fall!

The 5^th District is among the most conservative in Virginia and keeps ousting Republicans who are not conservative enough, so it seems. Good beat Denver Riggleman in 2020, after Riggleman served only one term.  Riggleman won in 2018 after incumbent Tom Garrett – who had only held the seat for one term himself – withdrew due to a scandal.  Garrett is now back in the General Assembly and Riggleman left the GOP and became anti-Trump, serving as an investigator on the House 1/6 Committee.

So, McGuire’s prospects of surviving in Congress, if he survives the recount and goes on to defeat Democrat Gloria Tinsley Watts, seem dim.  Democrats continue to eke closer to taking the seat, based on recent results.

OPEN SEAT PRIMARIES 7^TH AND 10^TH DISTRICTS:  Derrick Anderson, also the best financed, won the GOP nomination over five rivals, taking about 46% of the vote in the 7^th district, which is being vacated by Democrat Rep. Abigail Spanberger, who is focusing full time on running for Governor of Virginia in 2025.

Anderson now faces Democrat Eugene Vindman, a figure in the 2019 House hearings that led to Trump’s impeachment over his trying to get Ukraine to investigate the Bidens.  

Vindman also was very well financed, had the Washington Post endorsement, and the important African American vote in the district was split among six rivals – including four current or former elected officials.

Interestingly, more people voted in the GOP than Democrat primary — 35,734 Republican, 34,175 Democrat.  Both Vindman and Anderson are white males, so there is no real ethnic/racial/sex advantage, which seems to drive the Democrat vote.

While neither have ballot recognition, it seems the GOP could flip this, and they are hard pressed to retain control of the U.S. House, according to polls.

So, expect a lot of money to pour into the race, although Democrats should have the advantage.

In the 10^th district, the shoot-em-up among 12 Democrats seeking to succeed retiring Rep. Jennifer Wexton resulted in a victory for State Sen. Suhas Subramanyam, who represents Eastern Loudoun, winning the nomination over some better-financed opponents, notably Del. Dan Helmer, who was No. 2 in the voting.

Subramanyam, who had worked in the Obama administration in the technology area and had Wexton’s endorsement, got 30.37% of the vote, 13,063, to Helmer’s 11,494 (26.72% of the vote).  

Subramanyam, who won election to the House of Delegates and then the state Senate, seemed to have profited by targeting Hindu, Sikh and other voters from South Asia, which are very dominant in Loudoun.  According to the Washington Post.  Subramanyam “tapped heavily into the region’s growing South Asian community to raise $1 million — with an extra $575,000 from the  pro-Indian American candidate Impact Fund PAC.”    

He won Loudoun, which is about 50% of the general election vote in the 10th, but lost Fairfax, Prince William, Fauquier and Rappahannock counties to Helmer.  Helmer had raised $1.5 million and had $5.4 million in political action committee help.

Neither he, Sen. Jennifer Boysko, former House Del. and Speaker Eileen Filler-Corn and a few others even lived in the 10^th.  The three of them reside in parts of Fairfax County not in the 10^th.

The interesting factoid was the 3d place finisher, Atif M. Qarni, who was Virginia Secretary of Education under Gov. Ralph Northam, a Marine who served in Iraq, and two-time-loser for House of Delegates and State Senate.  He lives in Manassas and may have drawn votes from Muslim voters, who are dominant in the 10^th, to get 11% of the vote – beating out better financed politicians like Boysko (9.08%), Filler-Corn (9.32) and Loudoun Del. David Reid (3.21%).

The lesson here is that identity politics rules in the Democratic Party primaries, except when one or two dominant identity groups are divided among candidates like in the 7^th primary.  So, if a candidate is in a crowded primary, they have to find a niche of voters to capitalize on.

At this point, I think Subramanyam has the best shot to win election in November and become the first Hindu to be elected to a national office in Virginia.  That’s partly because Democrats bested Republicans in their primary – 43,018 votes vs. 26,638 – and Subramanyam has already won two state Senate elections in Loudoun.

The GOP nominee is Mike Clancy, of Sterling, who raised the most money and overwhelmed his four rivals, including Aliscia Andrews, who was the GOP nominee against Wexton in 2020 and has served in the Youngkin administration.  Clancy got more than 64% of the vote.  Clancy sought the GOP nomination in 2022 and lost to Cao.

Complete primary election results can be found here:  https://www.elections.virginia.gov/