One of the mementos from my former life as a naval officer is a paperweight, that I display proudly on my desk marked “Naval Support Activity Republic of China” with an outline of Taiwan in the background. A subtle reminder that within my lifetime Taiwan was once viewed as the Republic of China and that the United States had a special relationship with the bulwark of democracy in the far east.
In retrospect, the United States was extremely naïve in assuming that if we allowed Communist China into the community of nations, we could remake that repressive regime in our own image. It is no secret that the Peoples’ Republic of China (PRC) through both economic and military power has a strategic goal of achieving world hegemony. Yet in spite of this American corporations continue to kowtow to the Chinese communists while at the same time the PRC steals our intellectual property, technology, and military secrets while we sit idly by and watch the decline of our own nation.
https://www.state.gov/u-s-relations-with-taiwan/
Unfortunately, by the stroke of a pen the 1979 U.S.-P.R.C. Joint Communique switched diplomatic recognition from Taipei to Beijing. In the Joint Communique, the United States recognized the Government of the PRC as “the sole legal government of China, acknowledging the Chinese position that there is but one China and Taiwan is part of China.” The Joint Communique also stated that the United States will maintain cultural, commercial, and other unofficial relations with the people of Taiwan.
With that in mind, deterrence of Chinese aggression against Taiwan is must be a stated goal and a commitment of any responsible administration. To simply look the other way and pretend it is not happening is negligent. History has proven time and time again that any attempt to placate or appease an international bully only emboldens them. As one of my older in-laws would say “you cannot change a tiger’s stripes.” Understanding this, what can we do as a nation to defend the sovereignty of our former ally?
Admiral Davidson, in his outgoing congressional testimony as head of the United States Indo-Pacific Command last spring, estimated that “China would invade Taiwan in six years.” China hands now refer to this somber prediction as the “Davidson Window” and urge us to act now before it is too late.
https://www.hoover.org/research/realism-and-deterrence-cross-strait-relations
Whatever we as a nation are going to do to deter Chinese aggression must begin now; it must be strategic; and it must be applied at a steady strain regardless of the inevitable setbacks as world events change the geopolitical landscape such as what we are now witnessing in Ukraine. Chinese leaders have not attempted to forcibly occupy Taiwan up until this point simply because they are not confident that the costs both during and after an invasion that will be incurred outweigh the potential gain.
Our national leadership through continued naval presence and robust military assistance must ensure that the PRC unmistakably reaches this same conclusion time and time again. Once they sense a real or even perceived weakness or a lack of resolve on the part of the United States the games is over.
