New Polling on Virginia politics

(Source: Virginia Political Newsletter from Virginia Scope by Brandon Jarvis.)

The Institute for Policy and Opinion Research (IPOR) at Roanoke College released a new poll this week about how Virginia and the Governor are doing. Findings include:

• 52% of Virginians approve of how Youngkin is handling his job as governor, and 37% approve of how Biden is handling his job as president.
• 43% report that things are on the wrong track in Virginia, and 74% report that things are on the wrong track in the nation.
• 14% of Virginians approve of how Congress handles its job, and 45% approve of how the Virginia General Assembly handles its job.
• Approximately 50% of Virginians report a favorable impression of Youngkin, while 39% report an unfavorable impression.
• At the national level, 39% of Virginians report a favorable impression of Biden.
• About a third (33%) of Virginians report a favorable view of Trump.
• There are substantial partisan gaps in Virginians’ attitudes, including 51- and 54-point gaps in Youngkin’s approval and favorability ratings, 67- and 74-point gaps in Biden’s approval and favorability ratings, and a 64-point gap in Trump’s favorability rating. These gaps also appear in Virginians’ attitudes about the nation’s direction (35-point gap).
• “Virginians’ attitudes about the direction of Virginia and the country remain mixed, yet stable,” said Bryan Parsons, senior political analyst at IPOR. “This is also true in their approval and favorability ratings for political figures like Youngkin, Biden and Trump. With that said, partisanship continues to shape how Virginians evaluate key political figures and events.”

2024 Republican nomination

• Trump maintains a commanding lead of 51% as the first choice among self-reported Virginia Republicans, followed by DeSantis at 14%, Haley at 10%, Youngkin at 10%, and the remaining candidates who are in single digits.
• Approximately 26% of Republicans reported DeSantis as their second choice, followed by Youngkin (19%), Haley (17%), Trump (15%), Ramaswamy (10%), Scott (3%) and Christie (3%).
• In a hypothetical matchup between the two parties’ leading candidates. Biden leads Trump by about four points at 48% to 44%.
• Biden and Trump are currently splitting independents at 46% each.
• Approximately 45% of Virginians said they would consider an independent candidate, while 53% said they would not. Looking at the results by party identification, 56% of independents said they would consider voting for an independent presidential candidate.
• “As far as the Republican presidential nomination process goes, Trump maintains a commanding lead over the rest of the Republican field,” Parsons said. “While the Republican presidential field is heating up with numerous debates, as well as some candidates — like Nikki Haley — seeing a modest rise in support in our poll, these dynamics do not seem to be affecting the most constant feature of the Republican nomination race so far; that is, Trump continues to be widely popular within the party and remains the favorite for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination.”

Issues:

• 63% of Virginians say they at least somewhat closely followed the General Assembly elections held earlier this month. Only about a third (32%) of Virginians think the results of the elections will make a difference in getting things done in Richmond.
• Issues related to crime (11%) and education (12%) were also cited by about one in 10 Virginians as the most important issues facing Virginia. The percentage of Virginians who think other issues are most important remained relatively constant at 5% for climate change, 4% for immigration, and 3% for voting/elections. No respondents cited COVID-19 as the most important issue facing Virginia.
• The percentage citing abortion as the most important issue is up six points from their February poll earlier this year (11% now, 5% in February)
  • Approximately 89% of Virginians think abortion should be legal in at least some cases.
  • Since their last poll in August, the percentage who think it should be illegal in all cases is down four points, and the percentage who think it should be legal in some cases is up five points.
• A plurality (42%) of Virginians cited the economy, jobs, or inflation as the most important issue in the commonwealth, though the percentage citing inflation has dropped about seven points from December 2022

“The takeaway from this poll is that partisanship continues to shape Virginians’ views on everything from the direction of Virginia and the country to positions on key issues in public policy,” Parsons said. “There are substantial partisan differences in national political anxiety, but the common thread is that national political anxiety has seen a modest increase over the past year or so. Our poll results add to the evidence of the depths of polarization in American politics.”