Well, that isn’t entirely true. But in the larger story Gov. Terry McAuliffe failed to get “my Senate” back and Virginia will chug along for another four years with a Republican Senate barring losing a member. Every seat was a hold, not one single seat flipped. I don’t think I have ever seen an election quite like this. Certainly some things fell Republicans way, specifically Gary McCollum’s failure in Virginia Beach against Frank Wagner. Glen Sturtevant and Jeremy McPike won very close races against very good challengers to hold their retired seats. Incumbents Wagner, John Edwards, and Dick Black also held. It looks like Democrats may snag a couple of swing seats in Northern Virginia but effectively nothing has changed in Richmond.
I’m not sure what to make of this election. The major push on guns didn’t help Democrats, but it’s clear the blitz on $17 tolls didn’t help Republicans in Northern Virginia either. The outside money from Michael Bloomberg and aggressive activism of Andy Parker appears to have done nothing, if anything it may have hurt Dan Gecker in Powatan County … but maybe it helped McPike. I just don’t know.
In NOVA, it was a sad story for Republicans. Districts fell basically by sample ballot. There are almost no more crossover officials anymore, with Tom Rust’s seat finally going Democratic. In fact, I could argue that while the Democrats in Virginia did not win the Senate, they might have in the end had the better night. Their bench, particularly in Northern Virginia, has been restocked. Now Sen-elect McPike and, most importantly, Loudoun County Chairman-elect Phyllis Randall give the party two new stars. Democrats additionally took two other board seats in Loudoun. I’ve always argued that Loudoun County is the key to winning statewide in Virginia and now Democrats have elected the first black female chair of any BOS in the history of the state. Perhaps Loudoun was just regressing to the mean, a 9-0 Board of Supervisors was unrealistic to maintain. I think Republicans would rather deal with an honest Democrat like Randall than a snake like Scott York.
In Fairfax County, Democrats obliterated the GOP. The only survivors appear to be Clerk of the Court John Frey and John Cook, Braddock supervisor. Conservative darling John Guevara lost his race for Sully supervisor. And before establishment Republicans celebrate that too much, they have to swallow Jennifer Chronis’s defeat as well as incumbent School Board member Patricia Reed’s defeat (thanks, Elizabeth Shultz). Pat Herrity’s dream of adding to his team went down in flames, and the Republican Party has never been more unimportant in Fairfax than right now. The only shining light was electing Jeannette Hough to an at-large seat on the school board, knocking off Ted Velkoff in the process. Fairfax was a bloodbath.
Prince William County also offered more of the same. Corey Stewart and the entire GOP slate of incumbents were re-elected, Paul Ebert survived a strong challenge and every incumbent was re-elected. Obviously McPike’s victory is a feather in the Democrat’s cap, but that was an Obama district and we weren’t going to find a better candidate for this district than Hal Parrish. The real fun appears to be on the School Board where it will get much more partisan. But again, nothing much has changed.
Each party appears to have gotten stronger in their established corners of the state. Virginia has become very divided, there are almost no more moderates on either side and almost no more local Republicans representing Democratic districts and vice versa. Republicans can feel good about retaining the State Senate, but in critical Northern Virginia we took on some water. The headlines will have Republicans fist-pumping because we retained the Senate, but looking deeper in Northern Virginia and there is cause for concern. Democrats in Loudoun, Fairfax and Prince William had good nights and this is the largest part of the state, we cannot continue to fall behind. Once again Republicans let their hearts get ahead of their heads, we started talking about 23 or maybe 24 seats, people up here were thinking about a potential 5-4 Farifax BOS. Democrats poured money into gun control and abortion ads while the Republicans hammered home that fear of $17 tolls, but it all appears to be wasted money. The only thing that appears to have changed is Republicans got more Republican and Democrats got more Democratic. Old dogs like Colgan and Watkins and Stosch are gone for good.
Another lesson: this is still a Democratic-leaning state. The days of Virginia being a red state are over and we need to understand that winning for us right now is what we see tonight … barely hanging on. We need to collectively, as a party, figure out a new message and find new candidates that can speak to this state that understand it’s not 1998 anymore. We must continue to adjust accordingly. We must go into 2016 not with the attitude that we are a red state waiting to be woken up, but are at best a purple state with a shade of blue and our message must be calibrated to this reality. In some ways, we are still the party of the 90s and early 2000s (ie George Allen) and we are waiting for someone from the 2010s to step up and take this party over. Is it Ed Gillespie? He’s certainly a child of the 90s (so to speak) but he seems to understand the change that is needed. Is it Tom Garrett? Rob Wittman? Corey Stewart? Someone we haven’t thought of yet? A clue may lie in Kentucky, where outsider/conservative Matt Bevin swamped Democrat Jack Conway and grabbed three other statewide races on his coattails when it was a near consensus among insiders in both parties that he was about to choke away a winnable race. While Kentucky is certainly more Republican than Virginia, Bevin wasn’t afraid to paint with bold and almost reckless colors. Do we look for the careful insider or the swashbuckling outsider? I honestly have no idea, but we are about to find out with the upcoming presidential primary in March and the inevitable jockeying for 2017 that will begin … probably tomorrow.
And before I forget, BIG congrats to the next generation of Virginia Republicans – both Willie Deutsch and Ron Meyer won their elections today to the PWC school board and Loudoun BOS respectively. New names, new face … we need more of this.
[…] NOVA Post Election Quick Hits (Generally solid, interesting analysis by conservative Chris Beers.) […]
In Fairfax, the author forgot to mention that Tom Wilson won the school board seat in Sully District, giving the GOP a net gain of 1 in school board seats. And I am puzzled with the author blaming Elizabeth Schultz for Patty’s defeat. Patty had 6,500 votes, more than 5,500 voles less than her previous elections in 2009 (three-way race) and 2011 (unopposed) where she cleared over 11,000 votes. If she would have gotten 90% of the votes in either of her previous races, she would have been re-elected. Her opponent in this election got less than 9,500 votes.
When Patty colluded with the Democrat Chair and failed to be present to second an amendment by Elizabeth Schultz at a school board meeting in May, it may have alienated a large portion of her base and resulted in her poor electoral performance.
Why was the DIck Black margin of victory smaller this time around?
Because Terry McAuliffe hates Black for preventing Medicaid expansion and vowed to bring to bear all the forces of his evil heart to do it and personally 1) picked McCabe and 2) provided millions of dollars of support to her.
there were a lot of undervotes in eastern Loudoun precincts. That’s something that people need to look at as the area continues to grow.
people (on both sides, at least) did not engage in that race, in some very populous areas.
Ashburn had 563/8609 blank votes, that has to be unusual.
there were 1000 undervotes in the Dulles senate count, so I heard
Where are you and Cathy getting your numbers? I am looking at SBE data and I don’t see a major difference in total votes cast for House of Delegates versus Senate in either the Ashburn or Dulles districts.
Loudoun county page, the unofficial spreadsheet.
Ok. Looking at it now. According to that sheet there were only 43 under-votes in Ashburn and only 116 under-votes in Dulles for the 13th Senate District. Only 316 under-votes in that race County wide.
Ashburn Supervisor race: Blank – 563 Turner – 3,847 Buona – 4,180
That’s for the Supervisor race. That race is down on the ballot. It’s not unusual for down ballot races to have fewer votes cast. If there were 563 blank votes in the Senate race (which was the top of the ticket) then that would definitely be unusual which is why I was wondering about what you and Barbara were saying.
Mick, that was what I heard on election night–some figures have changed since then on both sites, state and county (absentee?), and I think there were a lot of split tickets too along with undervotes: in the Dulles precincts that are part of the 13th, Matt L got 5938 votes and Sen. Black got 3626
[…] NOVA Post Election Quick Hits […]
Before everyone gets too pessimistic on on the lack of progress in the northern part of the state you need to look a little further south namely Spotsylvania. The Republicsns won handsomely. This without a doubt was a Tea Party win. Finally the board of supervisors is clearly in the hands of the conservatives. This winners are not establishment Republicans. When the establishment Republicans supported independent Joe Kingman, who was claiming he was a Republican, lost in a big way. Of the seven board members the four running were the conservatives. The next BOS election will have to be defened by the liberal side. We will be ready. In yesterdays’ the Tea Party members and some other groups were manning the polls. We had the people and they had the big tents and the enormous signs. We are a big part of the Dave Brat district and I believe this movement is expanding. Chesterfield, Henrico and NOVA, need to grow their get grass roots.
I think it is unreasonable to expect Northern Virginia to turn Republican. What we need to do in this next presidential election is to reduce the spread and in the other parts of the state we need to increase the spread for the Republicans.
Als we have some really good newcomers in our area that will be some of our next generation of leaders. Hopefully, the economy won’t tank before that can become a reality. There are a number of counties like Goochland and Spotsylvania that can be examples for other localities. Check us out.
Agreed. The GOP is doing quite well across the state. Having repelled a full frontal assault by the McAullife money machine is no small matter. His ability to pour cash into the Commonwealth was a point of anxiety for many republicans. As it was, McAullife poured that cash down the drain. Phil Munger, etc. will be much less likely to waste more of their money on McAulliffe since he has now been fully contained.
Last night’s biggest loser was Barbara Comstock. Phyllis Randall now has a platform from which she can challenge 1) Jennifer Wexton (D) in a primary to run against 2) Comstock in the general.
Is it a surprise that the results were highly partisan in a low-turnout election? It’s the partisans that were most likely to show up.
I think the VA GOP’s biggest concern should be Fairfax and not “NOVA”. Loudoun lost some seats, but GOP elected officials in Loudoun outnumbered Dems something like 23-3. It’s still quite republican and the seats that were lost are ones shared with Fairfax. But republicans in Virginia’s largest locality just can’t seem to get any traction at all. Being a non-party in Fairfax I think hurts us across the board. Fairfax voters just start seeing the world as only being blue.
We really need to help Fairfax get off the ground (or is that out of the basement).
I think the Parisot race it too close to call, that would be the only bright light in the the Loudoun/Fairfax shared races. From what I am reading Parisot actually leads slightly in Fairfax and Murphy leads slightly in Loudoun. We simply did NOT pull the numbers Craig needed in Loudoun, otherwise he’d have outright won.
Barbara’s endorsements, budget votes, and friends in high places will help her
I believe they said the same thing regarding Jeb Bush and his endorsements and pile of cash. Come polling day all those influential friends (that is the one’s living in the district which are few indeed) will have exactly one vote.
Yes, but they were sincere and I am sarcastic and mocking. From a very high level and wildly guessing, it seems to me that projecting from these results, if Barbara holds the nomination, she will not win the general. Barbara was not elected to be the Umstaad in Washington, she was elected to lead and represent rather than pander and suck (up) to the National RNC priesthood.
A very focused and astute appraisal, if the Republicans can’t find a way to better manage their election opportunities in Fairfax then any statewide hopes then may hold are iffy at best. I also agree regarding Loudoun (which is not the key in my opinion) but in many ways the recipient of Fairfax Republican dysfunctional overflow. Until Fairfax is addressed and some remedial actions taken to put the party in a competitive position agonizing over a one off like Scott York is being focused on a symptom. I also agree with you regarding Comstock she has cast her future election fates with Fairfax, and while she may often sound like a Democrat, believe me the local Democratic party doesn’t view her as one, rather as a likely House target pickup seat. I may be in the minority here but as I stated prior to the election I believe the Republicans were indeed lucky to come out of this election simply holding the status quo.
How are Republicans supposed to win in Fairfax? This is a serious question, as I don’t see the way forward. Most of the voters there are too socially liberal and dependent on government spending for their livelihoods to vote for someone with an “R” next to their name. We can message and spin and find attractive candidates, but the populace there just isn’t interested.
Well that would require more words then appropriate for a comment section but here are four points of order. 1) don’t give up and never begin from an attitude of defeatism, 2) if something isn’t working don’t cling to it be innovative and go outside the box 3) if you run the same type of candidates, in the same manner, spouting the same talking points over and over again, EXPECT the same results, 4) and likely the most critical, if your leadership is constantly presenting you with failure, don’t blame the troops replace the leadership. By the way this works in life for a lot more then simple dysfunction in the local Fairfax Republican party.
here is the problem: even if Republicans aren’t supposed to win Fairfax, Fairfax is almost “the whole ball of wax” in Virginia.
so Fairfax may be a statewide candidate’s biggest problem
Without a doubt this is correct, without a plan to approach Fairfax how can you claim to have a strategy for winning a statewide election. Throwing your hands up in the air and accepting the status quo is a electoral dead end.
I don’t have a prescription, but rather put forth that the we lose Fairfax so badly that it is having a significant ripple effect. As LW stated, we need “remedial action” in Fairfax. I mean that in a sincere manner and not in some “you guys suck” manner. The GOP in VA, IMHO, needs to come alongside the FCRC and help figure out a path forward. I’m not saying we can turn Fairfax red, but we need to at least be a credible threat. Just looking at the returns I swear half the Ds in Fairfax were unopposed. That frees up Fairfax’s Democrat resources to move elsewhere like the surrounding jurisdictions. We have to strike Ds in their heart and put them on the defensive in their own backyard to prevent the eye of Sauron from looking elsewhere.
I don’t see Phyllis Randall as throwing this away any time soon to just try and keep climbing. her own party treated her like dirt the first time she ran, for the sake of letting their fake environmental pac endorse Lori Waters in order to claim to be “bi partisan”. The head of the pac actually allowed himself to be quoted in L2Day (another loss yesterday) calling her an “untested product”–great press, from the party of women, diversity, and so on, about a black woman in a former confederate county. The minute she filed, the state women came out against her with the commentary on illegal aliens, and Bellanca filed “I” right away. I honestly doubt she will use this as just a stepping stone. Speaking of which, Liz Miller lost, so there’s that
I have had no direct conversation with Phyllis Randall. From talking to others that have, there impression was that she was somewhat full of herself. Once elected, we have seen time and again how people get delusions of grandeur. This win to Chair will likely embolden her. Maybe she doesn’t take a shot in a year…but 3 years away I think is possible. If her first year goes well, then strike while the fire is hot and go for it.
I’ve known her since at least 07–she was attacked by the same Democrats (and “real” Republicans) who on occasion still tell me to shut up because the FBI is stiiiiillllllllll a-comin’ fer me
I met Phyllis over the course of this election cycle and found her to be quite gracious and engaging. She does assert her positions and advocates for her policies, however I don’t find that to be “full of herself” but confident. Let’s not forget that York spent quite a bit of time trying to paint both of his party opponents as unqualified and not ready to do “what only York can do”. If you ask me it was York that was full of himself. Perhaps his ego has deflated a little, but I am going to wait and see if he simply exits the Board room or goes out with his middle finger up.
Wow, I actually agree with Catherine. Phyllis has plans and those plans lay centered right on the Chairmanship. She is focused on the position she was just elected to. If she comes off a little chippy it is only due to those attacks referenced by Barbara. It’s an appropriate response, but not her mainstay. More impressive is that she won even with those posturing against her; for whatever reason they had.
Greason beating Miller again was nice.
Sure was. Add a McCabe loss in their too and, oh, how sweet it is.
I will also add that Comstock and her crew got hypnotized by Jennifer Chronis is a race polling showed was tough. They should have those resources to Parisot and Guevara.
The problem is Comstock didn’t support Guevara. Her guy lost in the primary so she largely ignored Guevara.
Can’t blame her, she was focused on her guy in the Winchester Commonwealth Attorney race.
The GOP did very well in the other county-wide races. King would’ve won if York didn’t jump back in.
That is exactly what the numbers show.
And if my grandma had…
The party made York, the party is the only cure for ‘Yorkism’
What are we going to do about the ‘Republicans’ touting York?
Tolerate it? Subsidize it? Reward it?
Does the party matter in these matters?
Physician, heal thyself!
The only reason the Democrat took the Chairman’s race in Loudoun is because the incumbent who previously ran as a Republican changed his mind about retiring and ran again as an independent, thus splitting the Republican vote. Phyllis Randall will be a one-term chairman.
Yes, York was the spoiler who gave the seat to a Democrat. Thanks Scott.
Thank more the Republicans who supported York
It was really a worst-case scenario for Republicans on this one. I blame everybody.
It was Scott’s damn fault for deciding to retire at the last minute without a good replacement.
It was Shawn Williams damn fault for running with so much baggage.
It was Charlie King’s damn fault for blackmailing everybody in sight so that we didn’t have a choice at convention.
And Finally, I have to concede once again that it was Scott’s damn fault for running as an independent. I didn’t think he and Charlie would split the vote so evenly.
I did not think they would split so evenly either. To your point on blackmail, I don’t lay that on Charlie–I lay that directly at the feet of the little clot of self-professed kingmakers and political “geniuses”, who will come out with “clean” hands ready to blow up other elections, because it’s the “wild west” and they can. Because no one stops them. It may have been a mistake for the little group to tie on to a match made in god-knows-where to try and take out the Sheriff and York at the same time–could illustrate that the enemy of my enemy is my friend isn’t always the Einstein solution. Chapman won big, but so did Jim Plowman. He won in more ways than one, because his chip-in was primarily by proxy since the convention. Eugene lost, which is really historic–was that a sacrifice play, a la Ron Weasley’s chess game in the first Harry Potter, where it was worth it to pay back York, and he had to lose to do it? I’ve no doubt Eugene has plans, but I do not know if he expected to lose–that was the real stunner to me. The same bs internecine warfare won’t be good for a presidential year, although I’m sure some of the “cowboys”–red sash and all?–will be just fine with Hillary or some other cluster**** in the White House, if they get to use it to continue to shoot at their supposed teammates in a struggle for pissing rights in the local puddle.
Up vote for imagery and rhetoric — the allusion to machinations of which I’m unaware is tantalizing and delicious. I’m not sure the personalities involved are so Machiavellian. Perhaps they just tried emulating democrats and were just not as genuine as the real deal.
perhaps not Machiavellian in intellect, but certainly in ego. Yes, a lot of the strategies are definitely “progressive”, but where they fail is that the actual progressives turn them outward, at least publicly, instead of inward and laterally, very publicly.
I’m starting to think that if this was not a planned exit/sacrifice on Eugene’s part, that York actually ended up taking HIM out.
They’ve been trying to bounce Eugene for years, it would not surprise me that this was not a planned, concerted effort/ sideline by the York machine…. But then weren’t the bulk of the York Republicans big fans of Mr. Orange???
I wouldn’t say that most of the “York Rs” were big Eugene fans–quite the opposite, in both directions, at least so it has seemed for years.
Couldn’t it have been there are now more democrats voting in Loudoun? Just think how many more are coming when metro gets here. Time to start batting down the hatches and check the survival gear.
Look at Bouna’s race. That is the one that surprised me. Much closer than I expected.
What the York supporters just did was put an historic Democrat in that seat the year before a Presidential election. Unbelievable.
Only unbelievable if we tolerate these in our party — that’s on us.
What a bunch of idiots. We can thank York for this and his rather ignorant supporters who weren’t smart enough to realize what a split vote for chair would mean. duh.
thanks also go to the ignorant (or rather arrogant hubristic) idiots who weren’t smart enough to realize that trying to take out Chapman and York together was a losing bargain once Chapman was the nominee; it may be that Eugene and York took each other out. Was that worth it to the braintrust? Well, Jim Plowman kept his seat.
I was surprised that York kept attacking King. It was obvious (to everyone else) that he needed Democrat votes to win but did nothing to win them over other than throw $50k at a slave memorial.
Yep, and the Yorkites were decrying the negative tone of the campaign.
Didn’t the chief bloviator predict a 42% win for York yesterday morning? The ingrained incumbent got 28%, with a 5-1 money advantage. High paid consultants and Web designers couldn’t put humpty dumpy York together again.
It’s so misleading that the Loudoun Times-Mirror described Randall as winning “in commanding fashion” when she only got 37 percent of the vote.
Valid since GOP did nothing in commanding fashion. With the exception of a few races we followed rather than led, did not work together, phoned it in, and further weakened our damaged brand.
Yup. York was our spoiler. Without him, Charlie King wins and Republicans keep the chair.
The Loudoun Times Smearer is so bias, they wouldn’t know real news if they tripped over it.