While 2023 is pretty much an off year for most states as far as elections are concerned and a very major year for the Commonwealth of Virginia for both our State’s legislators and numerous local elected offices, in this article I want to focus on the three gubernatorial elections in the nation and what my predictions are for them.
The three states that are hosting gubernatorial elections this year are Kentucky, Louisiana and Mississippi.
For the Commonwealth of Kentucky incumbent Democratic Governor Andy Beshear is seeking re-election for a second term while incumbent Attorney General Daniel Cameron who won the Republican nomination is seeking to flip that seat.
While Kentucky has a Republican majority in the U.S. Congress, Senate and an overwhelming majority in both chambers in their General Assembly, it seems throughout the years that the seat of the Governorship has been pretty much a toss-up for the past couple decades however with Governor Beshear winning the 2019 election by only 0.37% of the vote, I do believe that Attorney General Cameron’s chances of flipping the seat are strongly in his favor.
However it will not be as easy as most people think and it will take all the voters who helped make Kentucky’s General Assembly, the U.S. Congressional and Senate seats solid red to get out and vote, no exceptions! While I pray the voters make the right decision and flip the seat, I am calling this race a toss-up!
In Louisiana the incumbent Democratic Governor John Bel Edwards is term limited and cannot seek election for a third term. Louisiana has a “jungle primary” system which will have all the candidates who are seeking the office of the Governorship on the ballot regardless of party affiliation and that primary will be held on October 14th 2023 while a runoff election will be held between the top two candidates on November 18th 2023.
As of this writing incumbent Republican Attorney General Jeff Landry has the endorsement of the Republican Party of Louisiana and Democrat Shawn Wilson who previously served as Secretary of the Louisiana Department of Transportation and Development (2016-2023) has the endorsements of the Democratic Party of Louisiana and Governor Edwards, making both Landry and Wilson both front runners for the states two major parties.
Despite a period of toss-ups in the latter half of the 20th Century going into the 21st Century concerning the Governor’s seat, both chambers of Louisiana’s General Assembly, the U.S. Congress and Senate have the Republican Majority and add that with the fact that Governor John Bel Edwards has been classified by others as a “Conservative Democrat” or in my honest opinion a Moderate at best. I see this seat flipping from Democrat to Republican come November.
And last but not least the State of Mississippi where Incumbent Republican Governor Tate Reeves is seeking re-election for a second term against Democratic nominee Brandon Presley.
The Governorship has been pretty much red the past three decades and like Kentucky and Louisiana, the U.S. Congress, Senate and both chambers of the General Assembly in Mississippi also have the Republican Majority. Mississippi is also considered a socially conservative state. With the small amount of facts we have here I can safely and easily predict that Mississippi will remain red and Governor Reeves will win a second term in November.
As it stands currently, Republicans currently have the majority of gubernatorial seats by two states and lead Democrats 26-24. If by the grace of God and the will of the voters that Louisiana and Kentucky flip their seats then Republicans will remain victorious with a 28-22 but only time will tell.