Four Republican pollsters correctly predicted Youngkin’s 2+% win. They are Trafalgar, Insider Advantage, Co/efficient, and KA Consulting. Trafalgar polling has been consistently good with its poll predictions. Remember them next year.
Also from Bluevirginia.us a good summary of the election prognosticators:
- Sabato’s Crystal Ball put out its final prediction the day before the election, switching from “Leans Democratic” to “Leans Republican” for the governor’s race, adding: “Our sense is that the race has been moving toward Youngkin, in large part because of the political environment. McAuliffe’s Trump-centric campaign also just doesn’t seem as potent in a non-federal race with the former president no longer in the White House.” That pretty much nailed it.
- Cnalysis’ final ratings had the governor’s race as “Tilt Republican,” which nailed it. Cnalysis had the LG and AG races as “Tilt Democrat” and “Lean Democrat,” respectively. Neither of those were quite right. As for the House of Delegates, cnalysis’ final rating was “Toss-Up,” adding, “there’s a 47.6% chance of a GOP majority, a 46.7% chance of a DEM majority, a 0.04% chance of a GOP supermajority, and a 5.68% chance of a tie, which would result in a power-sharing agreement between both parties.” That’s about right!
- Harvard Political Review had its final forecast as follows: “Our forecast predicts that Glenn Youngkin will win the Virginia Governorship with a two-party vote share of 52.1%. The 95% confidence interval for this prediction is (43.1%, 61.1%), meaning that we are not confident that Youngkin will win the race; there is substantial uncertainty in our model. Our simulations predict that his chances of winning the race are 67.9%. Even though this may sound like a solid win, it is truly anything but. McAuliffe’s nearly 33% chance of winning, according to our simulation, is still a large probability, and thus we cannot rule out the possibility that McAuliffe pulls away with a win.” Not a bad forecast at all!
- The Cook Political Report had the Virginia governor’s race at “Toss Up,” which actually underestimated Youngkin if anything.
- Back in May, Dave Wasserman of the Cook Political Report was criticized by many for tweeting, “I think Republicans actually have a good chance to win the VA governor’s race this year. We’ll see.” Turns out he was right!
- Ryan Matsumoto had a final prediction of “McAuliffe by 2.5 points. This is a very competitive race and both McAuliffe and Youngkin have solid chances of winning. But I think McAuliffe may have a slight edge and will win by a similar margin to his 2013 race.” Instead, Youngkin ended up winning by almost 2.5 points.
- InsideElections’ final prediction changed from “Tilt Democratic” to “TOSS-UP.”
- Ryan Brune’s final predictions were: “Governor: D+0* Lieutenant Governor: D+2 Attorney General: D+3 HoD: Rs gain 3 seats. They gain the 12th, 75th, and 10th. *Tossup, but I pick TMac.” In the end, Republicans swept all three statewides, and Republicans apparently gained 7 seats in the House of Delegates.
- Jack Kersting’s final predictions were: Youngkin 50.9%-McAuliffe 49.1%, which is…almost exactly right. Nice job!
- PredictIt had Youngkin as a favorite, although not an overwhelming one by any means, heading into election day. On election day itself, McAuliffe surged for a few hours on some encouraging early vote numbers from “blue” areas, before falling back again and never recovering.