(This article was written in August 10, 2018 but has much pertinent information for today.)
Virginia’s 6th District is Republican. In 2016, it went for Bob Goodlatte for the US House of Representatives by a margin of 66% to 33% and for Trump for President by 53% to 42%.
BUT, in the volatile politics of the 2018 mid-terms, the Democrats need not despair of capturing the House seat. Republican nominee Ben Cline should win, but he lacks the advantage of incumbency and is better at policy than oratory, so if Trump were to suffer reversals the fall-out could put Cline in jeopardy. It would be a stretch for the Dems, but so were the results of the 2017 state elections, where they flipped 16 VA House seats.
In the Senate race, Corey Stewart is a woeful underdog. This is largely because of Alinskyite slanders, but the situation is what it is, and to have any hope Stewart must get big support in the red counties to offset the Northern VA swamp dwellers.
Given these realities, one would expect 6th District Republicans to be marching shoulder to shoulder while humming a few choruses of Stout Hearted Men (and Women) while they work to spread the message and maximize turnout.
One would be wrong. Instead, the 6th is riven with internal conflict that is diverting energy and resources away from the election and into battles over local county unit control.
For this, the responsibility lies mostly with the new District Chair, Jennifer Brown, and her cohorts, who are more concerned with cementing their own control and expelling Grass Roots activists, whatever the cost to the 2018 election and the long term health of the party.
The situation is complicated, but here is what happened (I think).
The Republican Party in the 6th is, like the party elsewhere, divided pretty evenly into an Establishment wing (GOPe) and the Grass Roots Conservatives (GRC). The GOPe members are more comfortable with big government, as long as they get to control it, and believe that they should control candidate selection, since they regard GRC folks as down market and GRC candidates as somehow disreputable. In several states, when the GRC has picked candidates for the House or Senate, the GOPe has helped defeat them and then lectured the GRC on how it should not pick people who are unelectable. Brown and her allies are decidedly GOPe.
Trump gets the support of both wings, with 88% of Republicans approving of him. However, I would bet that the 12% who disapprove come from the GOPe. The GRC is solidly pro-Trump.
At the 2016 VA state convention, Cynthia Dunbar, a transplant from Texas, captured the hearts and votes of the GRC and won surprise election to the Republican National Committee. In November 2017, after Bob Goodlatte announced his retirement from the US House, she declared her candidacy for the seat. At the same time, Ben Cline, former Goodlatte staffer and Chair of the VA House of Delegates Freedom Caucus, entered the race.
From the outset, Cline was the favorite. He had the support of most of the GOPe while his Freedom Caucus credential gave him solid credibility with the GRC. And, whatever one might think of the ethics of the national GOPe meme that “GRC candidates are toxic in a general election,” it was a potent argument for a Flight 93 House 2018 contest. (I supported Cline at the convention.) Cline should have won easily.
However, several factors complicated the situation:
+ More hats were thrown in the ring, including that of Chaz Haywood, Clerk of Courts in Harrisonburg. While none had much chance of winning, there was a possibility that they could siphon off votes from Cline and deprive him of a majority on the first ballot at the convention on May 19, 2018. (Some are well worth attention as possible future stars, but that is for a different post.)
+ The 6th District is the leading actor in the litigation that declared unconstitutional the VA “Incumbent Protection Act”. The IPA is a weird law, unique to VA, that allows an incumbent to select the manner in which his/her seat will be contested within the party – via convention or primary. In most states, incumbents favor conventions, which they can pack with supporters, rather than primaries, which can be contested by monied outsiders. But VA has open primaries, so a RINO can induce Democrats and Independents to vote in the Republican primary. This is attractive to some elements of the GOPe, who see it as a way to squeeze out the GRC and maintain control of the party, even if they lose in the general. The court’s decision is now on appeal, so whoever controls the 6th District Committee controls the level of effort that will be invested to defend that decision.
+ The 2018 convention would select not only the congressional nominee, but the Chair of the 6th District. The incumbent, Scott Sayre, first elected in 2016, was associated with the GRC, and absolutely despised by the GOPe, which was determined to reverse the 2016 result. They selected Jennifer Brown as the candidate, a Harrisonburg attorney with no discernible political record who was backed by party doyens Roger Jarrell (Brown’s fiancée) and Wendell Walker. To understand the level of rancor involved in this race, look through the posts on Bearing Drift.
+ The county unit committees are dominated by GRCs and favored Dunbar, so the District Committee as a whole was in the same posture.
The pent-up acrimony over the previous Chair race was so great that it would certainly have overflowed sooner or later, but the immediate trigger was that the District Committee did something foolish. In setting the rules for the convention, it called for nomination by a plurality vote, not for rounds of balloting until someone got a majority. This was perceived, correctly, as an effort to favor Dunbar, on the theory that her GRC support would stay solid but that other candidates might siphon off Cline votes.
It is far from clear that this perception was accurate; as noted, Cline’s Freedom Caucus credentials are excellent and he might well have cut into Dunbar’s support. However, partisan advantage aside, the plurality rule is ill-advised. The party should not nominate someone who cannot command majority or better support, even if some of it is tepid. So Cline’s decision to challenge the rule in front of the Republican Party of Virginia, which has the authority to over-rule the 6th District Committee, was correct, regardless of calculations of immediate advantage.
But then Cline did something equally foolish. Instead of orchestrating a low-key change overturning the plurality rule, he issued a blistering attack on Scott Sayre and the 6th District Committee. (There were some other issues about the convention rules, mostly minor or bogus, but useful in that they provided opportunities to attack Sayre.)
Thereafter, any restraints that might have existed were off, and Brown ran a scorched earth campaign against Sayre and the 6th District Committee, accusing them all of election law violations, mismanagement, financial corruption, convention-rigging, and any other charges that could be dreamt of.
Her allies even filed formal complaints with the Federal Election Commission, including a complaint that “[S]eeks to have Sayre Enterprises put under review by the Inspector General’s of the GSA and the Defense Department, to have its Federal contracts revoked, and be barred from bidding on new ones.” The charge? That Sayre allowed the 6th District Committee to meet in one of his conference rooms for free.
This one is a real head scratcher, because, first, Sayre denies it, saying that in fact he billed the Committee, and, second, even if it were true, it injured no Republican. The only people aggrieved would be the Democrats. So why make it, except out of reckless spite?
There were repeated charges that Sayre had favored then Dunbar campaign in releasing lists of delegates, charges that were shrilly repeated without reference to explanations by Sayre and Unit Chairs.
Cline would later point out that he did not formally endorse Brown, which was true, but he also ran a hard campaign against Dunbar, and persisted in the attacks against Sayre and the Committee. He and Brown were most definitely running as a ticket, and the voting at the convention showed it.
For the nomination to the House seat, Cline got 52.6%, Dunbar got 39.2%, and others got 8.2%. Before the voting, Hayward dropped out, so it remains unknown whether Cline or Dunbar would have gotten the plurality had he stayed in. Conventional wisdom is that his votes went to Cline, whom he endorsed, and TBE’s Mick Staton estimated that this represented 6% to 8% of the total vote. The votes for the Chairmanship tracked the congressional results. Brown got 58% and Sayre 42%
So pause for a moment to consider the situation as of the close of the convention. Cline won, but in my view, his unpleasant tactics against Dunbar and his association with Brown’s scorched earth policy in the race for the Chair turned what should have been a going away 70-30 win into a narrow 52-40. (Cline’s staff will, obviously, disagree with this assessment.) He also suppressed the enthusiasm of the GRC, but whether this is temporary or not – we will see in October.
Brown also won, but at a cost. She has accused the 6th District Committee – which she must now attempt to lead – of corruption and malfeasance. She has engaged in lawfare – a strategy of bleeding one’s adversary financially by forcing them to pay hefty legal bills — by bringing in the FEC, and, however bogus the complaints, one must always take the Feds seriously. As Mike Flynn will testify, if they decide they want to get you, they will. So the Committee sequestered $30,000 to provide legal defense.
At this point, after the convention, things got even more weird.
After tough internal fights, winners have a script. They make nice and try to patch things up. So Brown should be pulling back from her positions, saying she did not mean to be insulting and that now she understands the true situation she will work with the Committee to call off the FEC. An examination of the Committee’s books, which is routine when the officers change, found them in good order, and she should express gratification. She should restrain some of her allies, who remind me of a Malamute I once knew whose response to every passerby was simple – bite them in the butt.
Brown has done none of this. In fact:
+ She has not called off her attack curs. They insult GRC activists in ways that make a school playground look mature. (E.g., [the party needs to]“rid itself of the Dunbar/Sayre homos”; [Name] ”is a Bitch and a dried up old hag”. If you want screenshots, they are available upon request.)
+ She has not pulled back on any of her accusations, and in fact has doubled down, calling the Committee she now heads corrupt for voting to defend itself against the FEC. She is trying to make defense impossible.
+ She has not responded to information indicating that the FEC complaints are ill-founded or trivial clerical errors.
+ If she has made any statement in support of the decision against the Incumbent Protection Act, it eludes search engines. In this she is not in sync with Cline, who supports the lower court decision.
+ At the District Committee meetings since she took over as Chair, she has shown a lack of comprehension of the rules of order and amazement that folks she had been insulting for six months do not love her and jump to do her bidding. Her parliamentary and diplomatic schools need remediation. She seemed surprised when the Committee selected subordinate officers who are of the GRC ilk and who did not appreciate her months of insults and accusations.
+ She is going out into the individual units and advocating the removal of any Unit Chair who opposes her.
So what happens next? In a remark attributed to either the physicist Niels Bohr or the sage Yogi Berra (take your pick), “Prediction is difficult, especially about the future.”
It could be that the 6th District will limp along in a state of animosity and that Cline will win nonetheless, even if the margin is not as big as it should be and even if it under-delivers for Stewart. Then the party will remain in a state of cold civil war and deteriorate.
It could be that events shake up the campaign and the dysfunction costs Cline the seat. This is not probable, but the chance is greater than one would like. This would trigger true upheaval.
It could be that Brown goes, either voluntarily or by formal removal. Under the ByLaws, an officer can be removed by a vote of 2/3, but as a preliminary 1/3 of the members must have signed a statement setting forth the causes of the removal. What constitutes “cause” is not specified, so it would be whatever 2/3 of the Committee deems adequate.
Other possibilities are in play. To my eye, some of the statements Brown made during the campaign look libelous, unless she can show that they were true, and as more information comes in the truth defense looks increasingly shaky. “I was in a political campaign” is not a defense. (When Harry Reid said that Mitt Romney paid no taxes he was careful to do it on the Senate floor because the Constitution’s Speech and Debate Clause shielded him from libel liability.) She could wind up defending some unpleasant litigation.
The general rule is that a complaint to a government agency, however baseless, cannot be grounds for a libel action, but there is a catch – the protection does not extend to republishing the charge elsewhere, as in a press release. Also, a complaint to the FEC is made under oath, and to deliberately make false statements is itself a federal crime.
And it could be that Cline will step in and either cool down Brown and her gang or arrange for a departure. He should, on the Pottery Barn principle that he broke it and now owns it, and out of pure self-interest. He should not want his GRC supporters distracted instead of working to elect him, and one cannot believe that he would support purge efforts.
Whether Cline sees it this way – well, Niels (or Yogi) had it right. In any case, the saga of the 6th will, unfortunately, continue to be unfortunate.
26 comments
Anybody got a list of the representatives and units that voted to steal the $30,000? I’m trying to keep track without a scorecard.
I missed the author’s Republican credentials, as the rant seemed related to party politics, is he a Republican?
How can Jarrell be the “legal liason” for the 6th when he ain’t got a law license? Since he’s apparently got judgements and a garnishment against him in rockbridge circuit and general district he sure looks successful.
This is a post with discussion much in need of saying… and so I give much thanks to Mr. Delong for the undertaking.
For one thing, I much agree with Mr. Delong that Cline and the 6th District party bigwigs have to do something about the Jennifer Brown problem or suffer great credibility loss among the party base. Also, if the party sanctions an embrace of thuggish tactics, like using the state apparatus as a weapon total warfare and/or lawfare against any and all opposition, it sows the seed of it own destruction, every bit as much as the Democrats have done.
To wit, if Ben Cline does and says nothing about this ‘situation,’ many will view Cline by default of silence as being aligned with the very party elites who are now seen by many people as having been responsible for a many decades long program aimed at thwarting will of the people.
So, what else is there to eat besides popcorn? This bag is getting pretty stale.
Are the Dems in this district running any one worth a crap?
Bobby Goodlatte thinks so. https://twitter.com/rsg
The is author is wrong in both in the substance of the piece, most notable selecting who represents the “GOP” the “GRC”.
Zero hard evidence is shown to prove the Brown fraction is the GOP & her anti-fiscally responsible detractors that seized the district’s money are GRC, as opposed to the other way around, or a mixture of GRC in both camps…
Hey! Has anyone noticed that we are living in the Era of Fake Everything? Nothing is what it seems?
As to evidence, observed actions by means speak louder than zero empty words.
That’s basically what’s going on. And somehow this is good for any campaign?
Cline will probably win but Corey Stewart’s #1 fan is hurting what little chance he has. I’m sure Ben is focused on his success not Corey’s and Jennifer is focused on stupid attacks added by threats.
Bet she raises tons of money with that attitude. Perhaps she was hoping to cash in on the money Sayre raised and claim she did something.
The good news is that Ben Cline will easily win the 6th District. The bad news is that the 6th District watering hole has been poisoned and the herd will have to move on. This will most likely not be resolved until Jennifer Brown and Roger Jarrell step down from the chairmanship.
The bad news is that Ben Cline in not a Liberty candidate of the original ‘Unalienable Right’ cast. I say this knowing well that most folks don’t know the difference between rights and privileges, and therefore don’t have a ghost of chance to dialing back to a genuine Liberty.
The good news is that Cline is apt to support President Trump because Cline is a go-along, get-along Conservative, whatever that is. But then again, how energetically will he Drain The Swamp? Your guess is as good as mine. Although that Cline seems not to strenuously object to Jennifer Brown does not bode well for Swamp Draining efficaciousness, this as an important footnote.
The bad news is the Globalist slash Elitists cabal in the 6th District is now on point ‘to take back the committees’ now that the Tea Parties seem a bit on the wane. And to this, the troika picture at the top of this article speaks volumes.
For my part, I would like to see Cline and Goodlatte disavow the Brownian tactics of ‘search and destroy,’ aka rumination by Lawfare. Deafening silence by Cline and Goodlatte on this stratagem seems to imply consent to the perpetuation of a totally corrupt, rigged system (judicial and otherwise) of government.
Rule by Legal Battering Ram is perilously close to rule by War Lords, the common denominator being War of All Factions against All Factions, just as a Hobbesian variant.
A big reason why she was elected as National Committeewoman is because she wasn’t GOPe Susie Obenshan.
You are leaving out big factors from your analysis that change your conclusions.
Cruz and NeverTrump.
Dunbar strongly appeals to (as Roc says) the Cruz-Cuccinelli cult because to them Dunbar = Cruz.
Dunbar appeals to NeverTrump because she is too despite her transparent claims otherwise (“But but but ! I supported him after the nomination!” Like you would have voted for Clinton? Sheezzz..). Certainly she would have voted for Cruz at the RNC convention if there had been a second round of voting. I can’t forgive those who conspired and supported doing that. Naked power grab and a betrayal of the majority of republican voters.
The 6th District leadership is chock full of Nevers who are either still-smarting Cruz-Cuccinelli cultists and plain old GOPe Nevers.
Sayre, Dunbar and their crowd of power hungrys arrogantly thought they deserved their power seats and were not at all adverse to using whatever means necessary to keep control. You conveniently left out her own campaign’s dirty tricks.
Remember Cline got a huge majority of votes. Yuge.
Dunbar and Sayre got shellacked. Think deeply now… why oh why did
they get reprimanded so harshly…
The big majority of 6th district republicans rejected the Nevers and Cruz-Cuccinellis and decided instead to drain the swamp. Now they are in the beginning stages of expelling the swamp creatures. May God bless and speed their efforts!
But, alas, the cabals don’t depart peacefully when rejected. Oh no, they try to impose their will through more dirty tricks like draining the committee’s bank account for themselves. What an affront to the members of the 6th.
And Jennifer Brown didn’t cause Dunbar to loose. Dunbar did that all on her own. So very thankful the 5th didn’t pick her, despite the Dunbar campaign 5th-dwellers and Cruz cultists.
But don’t worry, silly rabbit, tricks are for kids and the swamp’s dirty tricks will be rescinded and they will be sent packing in do time.
The swamp tricks were all done by Brown, Jarrell, ZW, and yes,… even Ben is guilty silly rabbit. You went a long way to say nothing at all. The dirty tricks and games and attacks on Grassroots Republican Activist are true. Jarrell lied making a criminal complaint against one. He is the epitome of the swamp. His use of threats and intimidation will no longer work.
I am a Dunbar supporter. I am a Early Trump Supporter. I have proof. Your accusations are pathetic and weak. Classic of someone who is either naive, or part of the “cabal”.
It does matter “HOW” you Win. If it’s a two year term and nothing more, Congratulations. If you were seeking more than that,… Epic Fail
Very clever analysis, and I admit that you had me going … that is, until you began the deep talk about Swamp Creatures. And by the way, the ‘likes’ on this post are likely to raise a few eyebrows.
The worst thing about Jennifer Brown is that by strategy and tactics, she is little different than HRC. Both are Alinsky-esque and both are willing to ‘freeze and destroy’ their ‘targets’ no matter the cost. And no means is too odious not to be considered. And add in the words … morality be damned. Worst of all, Cline and Goodlatte don’t object. I say this noting that all three … Cline, Goodlatte and Brown are lawyers are well familiar with the Maxim of Law that ‘silence is to be seen to consent.’
Brown is no better than Hillary?? You are ridiculous.
What did Brown do that is as bad as having a person/group clearly linked to Dunbar’s campaign send emails telling people they were disqualified from being a delegate? That is an Alinsky tactic.
Notice how Dunbar always claims perpetual innocence in all things?
And what is so wrong about many people in the 6th objecting strongly when Sayre breaks FEC rules in helping Dunbar? Sayre showed very poor judgement and undoubtedly knew he was breaking the rules.
Dunbar has run for Congress before (in TX, she only got 3% in the primary).and she is a lawyer so she has NO excuse for not reporting Sayre’s donations. These are actual crimes. Not just “She was mean to me” BS.
Oh and then there’s Sayre’s call about delaying giving delegate information to candidates. Oh so odd that Dunbar got them well before anyone else. Gosh and golly.
And Sayre’s dictator-like deciding of the convention’s voting rules, which was quickly over-turned by the RPV. Hilarious that Sayre’s rule could have been kept after all because Cline smashed Dunbar with 52% on the first vote. Exceptionally sweet karma..
Sayre, Dunbar, and their cabal are swamp creatures. Similar to the Dems who never thought HRC would loose so they were bold in their actions.
For the sore-looser cry bullies on the 6th committee to bind 30K now is pure hate. More than just bad form.
So good to see 2 units so far have officially claimed “no confidence” vote. Under RPV rules, that is a step in removal. If the members of the 6th unseat these people, will you accept their decision?? Brown now has the responsibility for health of the 6th and is cleaning house. More power to her.
Now its your turn. During the election, what did Brown, Cline, Haywood, etc., do that was so bad??
Forget Dunbar, Forget Sayre, Forget all the distraction and drama queen pageantry.
The object here was, is and remains to block all inconveniences to Establishment Rule; and more importantly, and to the immediacy of the moment, to take back control of the 6th District Republican committees for the gaming of The System for the benefit of the less than one percent. The rest is white noise meant to sway the useful idiots of the world, of which, and sadly to say, there is an over-abundance.
One tactic of the ‘left,’ whether R, D or any other colour of the rainbow, is for the kettle to call the pot black. People are catching on this. The old worn out claptrap arguments are simply no longer efficacious. Thus, and with due consideration, you might be in want of redirecting you argumentation along newly conjured lines.
So you’ve got nothing.
You can’t point to any crimes committed by Brown that are worse than what Dunbar and Sayre did. Your assertion that Brown “is little different than HRC” remains ludicrous.
But you are right. I certainly do want to forget Dunbar, Sayre, and their cohorts. Once they are expelled, I hope they become distant memories.
It is you who have nothing to trot out but the same old squirrel wheel of endless factionalism as though this was the main stage event. You fail to think strategically in the world of Realpolitik. Your endless flow of chaotic scribbling is testament to your failings in life. All you have to offer is a world of shifting contention in which no honest man could possibly flourish. And I reject that world.
Those with eyes wide open know what lurks behind the tempest ongoing in the 6th Congressional District, nothing less than a badly cloaked war of naked aggression for the total control of the people which the political class is meant to serve, but never do. All the rest is window dressing.
I gave specific examples. You’ve got nothing to substantiate your claims.
Ego won’t let you admit your error. You attempt to use puffery and highfalutin rhetoric to intimidate. Sad. You are an empty windsock.
I don’t take your absurd political buffoonery at all the least bit seriously. Yours is the old game of playing all sides against the middle which sucks ’em in every time … or at least once did … and I refuse to to there.
This is all really very simple. The Bigwigs of the party are trying to take back absolute control over hitherto breakaway committees in the 6th District using a proxy army of thuggish operatives. And by the way, the Bigwigs don’t give a fig about the $30,000, or the right or wrong of it … and ultimately, they don’t care about you and me. But they do care that those who refuse to march to their tune are ground to dust, silenced and buckled under their total Republican Establishment Elite control. And they very much do care that their corrupt feathering of their own nests under ‘legal’ cover goes on unabated, uncontested … and the public be damned.
Quite a few people have awakened to this fact and they are not apt to be reeled in by your nonsensical spinning of sand castles in the air nonsense.
We can’t forget the actions of those do wrong simply because we share an agenda.
As a reminder, NeverTrumpers did vote for Hillary. Dunbar did not. Therefore, by definition, she is NOT a NeverTrumper.
I saw a Dunbar speech (for the nominee,) used law-talking weasel words to dance around supporting the President “vote against Hillary,” “support our platform,” “founders, liberty, God, love, bla freedom bla.”
She’s the spokesmodel for the Cruzcinelli faction — how do you run opposition against a Republican President that ends up more an effective conservative than ALL of his challengers?
Rocinante, get off your Trump supporting cross, use the wood to build a bridge and get over it. Trump made his bed during the primaries and had to lie in it during the election. Many people, including me, only voted him reluctantly but we voted for him nonetheless. I, for one have been marvelously and pleasantly surprised at the excellent job he is doing. Dunbar is a sensible woman and, I am sure, she feels the same way I do about the president now. Cruz certainly has been one of his strongest allies in the Senate (unlike Marco Rubio who holds a grudge to this day).
Your continual harping on what you considered insufficient support of Trump two years ago is both tedious and unhelpful to moving this country along in the right direction. The only thing worse than a sore loser is a sore winner
Elephants forgive, but never forget.
You lost me at Dunbar being a sensible woman.
I’ve whittled my cross into a Gravity Hammer to be used on “Republicans” that do not support the ticket or our nominees.
According to brainy quote, Neils Bohr said it.