The Future of the Senate Filibuster and Chuck Schumer’s Career May be At Stake.
The Federal Government has been shut down for almost 3 weeks now. And since the reasons for the shutdown are entirely based on political calculations, namely the political calculations of New York Senator Chuck Schumer, it’s reasonable that we look at the political ramifications.
A spotlight, or should I say target, has been on Schumer’s back, since he made a government funding deal earlier this year with Republicans, and the Trump administration, in order to keep the government open. The left denounced him for weeks following the agreement. The complaints of the progressives included – he is not a committed socialist, he is not tough enough, and they concluded that he is not anti-Trump enough to lead the Party in the Senate.
Making matters worse for Schumer is the fact that his support in his home state is dreadful, especially for a guy who has represented the state since last century. New York, his hometown, is about to elect a socialist to be Mayor. New York Democrats are in a radical mood, so Schumer no doubt feels the need to raise his game. That is to raise his level of anti-Trump rhetoric and actions if he hopes to be renominated in a couple years.
And it looks like his support is continuing to erode. This weekend Democratic Representative Seth Moulton, who is running for the Senate in Massachusetts, said that if elected next year, he would not vote for Schumer to be the Party’s leader. My guess is that there are many other Senate Democrats who feel the same.
Schumer, for political survival, has decided to embark on this shutdown gambit. At his request the Democratic minority is blocking the passage of a Bill to reopen the government. I suspect that all of the pressure from his left flank, both in and out of New York, has pushed him into starting this bad and unwinnable fight.
Why would Schumer do something so stupid? Well, he is counting on the continuation of an historical trend, namely that government shutdowns are blamed on Republicans. Schumer is basing his shutdown gamble on this idea that history will repeat itself and that Republicans will get the blame once again.
Why do Republicans always seem to get the blame when it comes to these periodic shutdowns? Well, my theory is that people have an impression that Republicans don’t like government and therefore whenever there is a shutdown the assumption is that Republicans are to blame. And they also reason that Democrats like government so they can’t be responsible for a government shutdown.
No matter the facts most people have the default belief that the Republicans deserve most of the blame. However, as the shutdown proceeds, the polls can change based on the facts and the spin. Democrats may, with some good reasons, believe that they always win shutdown fights.
But this time may be different.
Polls show that so far, the public blames both Parties equally. This must be disturbing to Democrats; their natural advantage seems to be gone. And unlike in years past the Democrats are in a very weak position. And as this shutdown goes on more people will realize that the Democratic minority is blocking the vote to reopen the government. In addition, Trump’s approval rating has actually gone up one point since the shutdown began. He is stronger politically than he was in his first term.
Schumer has decided to make health care, specifically subsidies for the Affordable Care Act (aka Obamacare) the hill to die on. Ironically, it was the Democrats, when they were in power, who set the Obamacare increases to expire at the end of this year. The new Republican majority doesn’t want to extend the subsidies. In fact, not one Republican member of Congress voted for the ACA, yet Democrats are demanding that they vote to increase subsidies for it.
I don’t believe that Schumer is on solid ground. Most Americans are not dependent on Obamacare subsidies. They aren’t going to support shutting down the government over this issue even though the subsidies may be popular. And even many people on Obamacare are not going to want the government shut down over this issue.
Some facts to keep in mind. Republicans have a simple majority to pass the Bill to keep the government open, but Schumer and Democrats are using a filibuster to block passage. That is Republicans need 60 votes, but they only have 53 Republicans. Ironically, Schumer and most of the Democrats were in favor of getting rid of the filibuster when Biden was President, now they are happily using it.
The hypocrisy on the filibuster should hurt the Party’s standing with the public. For example, Democratic Senator Reuben Gallego of Arizona ran on getting rid of the filibuster, now he is happy to use this “undemocratic” measure as he would describe it. Other than two Senate Democrats, Sinema, and Manchin, who are both now out of Congress and no longer Democrats, all the others backed getting rid of the filibuster when Biden was President. Now they are using it!
California Democratic Congressman Ro Khanna suggested on Sunday that Republicans in the Senate should vote to end the filibuster and then they would have the votes to reopen the federal government.
He may be on to something. It may be that Democrats have engaged in this shutdown fight in part to force the Republicans to nix the filibuster. Democrats think that one day they will hold the House and be back in the White House, and they don’t want a possible AOC, or Bernie Sanders presidency blocked by Republicans in the Senate. But they may prefer that it be the Republicans who end the filibuster.
I for one, and I am sure I am not alone, think that the filibuster is a great thing. It forces the minority to get some influence on legislation. The beauty of our government is that we have two Houses of Congress. The House is a majoritarian body, and the Senate is not. There has to be some compromise to pass all legislation, because all legislation has to go through the Senate.
The Republicans support the filibuster whether there is a Democrat President, or a Republican President. Schumer and the Democrats have no such principles. I support the Democrats using their power in the Senate to force a compromise, but the government needs to remain open during negotiations.
The trend is clear; Democrats are going to be hurt by this shutdown the longer it goes on. Schumer may get a face-saving deal, but he better push for that sooner rather than later. Time is almost up on the early bird special.
In the end I don’t think a deal that Schumer is likely to get, saves him politically. No matter what he gets the base will see it as too little, too late. They will see it as another Schumer sell out.
He has to appease the woke, radical, progressive, Trump deranged left, which is impossible. A good historical example. In France in the late 1700’s the leader of the left was a man named Maximilien Robespierre – simply Max to his friends. Like Schumer he tried to appease his left flank, but nothing he did could satisfy them. His followers finally got rid of him. and I think Schumer will also be deposed, but on the positive side, unlike what happened to Robespierre, I think Schumer’s end will be slightly more humane.
David Shephard is the author of two books: Elections Have Consequences, A Cautionary Tale.
Norton’s Choice: An Inside Politics Exposé: Shephard, David: 9781892538802: Amazon.com: Books
1 comment
Spot on.