Enthusiasm gap and shift in voter priorities boost Youngkin
According to a Monmouth poll of 1,005 voters, Terry McAuliffe and Glenn Youngkin are tied at 46%.
From Monmouth Polling Institute:
>>>The biggest swing in support from Monmouth’s last poll comes from independent voters, registering a 48% to 39% lead for Youngkin now compared with a 37% to 46% deficit in September. Youngkin has also cut into McAuliffe’s advantage with women voters. The Democrat currently has a narrow edge among women (47% to 43%), down from a sizable 14-point lead last month (52% to 38%).
Youngkin has increased his support in the reddest part of the commonwealth, western Virginia, where he currently leads McAuliffe by 66% to 27% (up from 58% to 34% in September). At the same time, McAuliffe has slipped slightly in heavily-blue Northern Virginia. He leads there by 58% to 34%. This is down only slightly from his 58% to 29% lead last month, however, incumbent Democratic Gov. Ralph Northam won this key region by 35 points (67% to 32%) in 2017. McAuliffe holds small leads in both the eastern Tidewater (48% to 42%) and central I-95/Richmond (48% to 41%) areas.
“Suburban women, especially in Northern Virginia, have been crucial to the sizable victories Democrats have enjoyed in the commonwealth since 2017. However, their support is not registering at the same level this time around. This is due partly to a shift in key issues important to these voters and partly to dampened enthusiasm among the party faithful,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute.<<<
>>>Voter enthusiasm shows an even wider disparity. This metric stood at a 13-point Republican advantage in prior polls – 34% GOP to 21% Democrat in August and 44% to 31% in September. That disparity has grown to a 23-point chasm in the current poll – 49% GOP to 26% Democrat.<<<
Education and schools are a growing issue for voters. Youngkin has made it his top priority. Last night he announced he would launch an investigation into Loudoun Public Schools coverup of rape and sexual assaults by the same student in the bathroom at two different high schools. LCPS is not keeping our kids safe. In his first day in office as Governor, Youngkin will begin the investigation of the crimes and coverup.
Issues of importance to Virginia voters:
Trends and enthusiasm are clearly with Republicans.
Full details of the poll here.