Virginia 2021: The Revenge of ROVA

Northern Virginia vs. Rest of Virginia.  NOVA vs. ROVA.

That has long been the dominant theme in Virginia politics, particularly for us here in the Grand Old Party.  The rest of Virginia (anything south of Prince William County), eyes us suburbanites of DC with ire and contempt.  In return, we generally do all we can to avoid 95 and/or 81 south.  Since Mark Warner’s election as governor in 2001, Republicans in Virginia have all joined in the yearly ritual of hopeful early election returns until the growing crush of blue votes come down from Fairfax and Arlington counties (and then Loudoun and Prince William as the 21st Century has moved forward) like crescendo around 10 pm at night.  Year after year, election after election.  Sure, there were some good nights.  George W. Bush in 2004, McBollinelli in 2009 are about all we can point two since the turn of the century.  Particularly since McDonnell’s 2009 win, the drought has been acutely painful as we all slowly came to the realization that Virginia is, indeed, a blue state.  Donald Trump’s ascent to the helm of the GOP and the presidency might have accelerated this change, but it was happening anyway.

On top of this, the continued idiotic fights over convention (largely backed by ROVA) versus primary (Us NOVA folks don’t like driving to Richmond or Roanoke).  The arguments have been made ad nauseum, convincing at times but ultimately meaningless as we lost every statewide race since 2009 nominating candidates both ways.  But this debate was a genuine spike in the party that hurt us every year.  Although, this year was hilariously turned on its head as downstate supporters of Amanda Chase wanted a primary because she could never get 50+1% support, and NOVAites frightened of her Trump-in-heels persona suddenly found conventions more palatable.  

To this depressing backdrop, we entered 2021.  I wasn’t hopeful.  However, I did think we had reached our nadir with the back-to-back embarrassing defeats of establishment Ed Gillespie for governor and MAGA Corey Stewart for US senate.  A year or so ago in a group chat with some old R friends of mine, I said our only shot was finding a rich outsider who could self-fund and was from Northern Virginia.  When I first heard of Glenn Youngkin and saw where he came from, I thought that maybe we had our man.  But I’ve been an observer and involved in Republican politics for years, and my worry was someone like Youngkin could become a rich sugar daddy to the consultant class and end up going nowhere.  Amanda Chase scared me because we just saw what happened to Stewart in ‘18 and Trump in ‘20.  Pete Snyder has never particularly impressed as a candidate despite being a nice guy.  I gave Kirk Cox some thought, he was an experienced and serious man, but I felt he had almost zero chance to keep up with the Democrats’ big money.  I went with my gut and voted for Youngkin.  

When the ticket emerged, I was pleased.  It’s impossible to come away from Winsome Sears and not be impressed by her career and personal story.  As for Jason Miyares, I remember thinking why is he running and throwing away a potentially long career in the House of Delegates?  We were lucky to have him.

As we entered the general election, I liked to talk to my wife.  She’s a pretty loyal mainstream Democrat.  Even before Afghanistan and Joe Biden’s terrible start to the presidency that has hurt the Democratic brand, she was concerned about Terry McAuliffe.  She had been a Jennifer Carrol Foy backer and was excited for her.  Terry’s overwhelming primary win left her groaning … “another old white man?  Why does he need to be governor again anyways?”  I took note.  Hmm.  Maybe we might have a shot.  How motivated can anyone be to vote for Terry McAuliffe?  

The general election was excruciating to follow.  In my R group chat, every time good news came out or a new poll showed the race tightening we steeled ourselves with hilarious gifs and the phrase “we know how this ends.”  Even until the end, following everyone’s dumb Election Day anecdotes online, we kept saying “we know how this ends.”  It wasn’t until the numbers were real, we could do the math, we saw the turnout and Youngkin’s performance that we finally allowed ourselves – for the first time since 2009 – to allow the enjoyment of victory wash over us.

And what a victory!  Glenn Youngkin got more votes than any person in state history for the office of governor.  Turnout skyrocketed, which was supposed to be our doom, and carried our entire ticket, and has potentially flipped the House of Delegates (Filler-Corn has not conceded).

As I scanned the results on VPAP, I was amazed.  Youngkin over-performed nearly every Republican ever in Northern Virginia but also over-performed Donald Trump in the rural red counties (by percentage).  McAuliffe got almost 200,000 more votes than fellow Democrat Ralph Northam in 2017 and lost.  Motivated Republicans turned out, and Youngkin’s campaign and events in Loudoun County helped flip the education issue on its head and brought Glenn much more support in suburban counties outside DC than most Republicans get.  He also blew the doors off of Newport News, particularly in Virginia Beach.

So while Youngkin was up everywhere, I was struck by ROVA.  For so long, ROVA had to wait for NOVA to decide how much the  Democrat was going to win by.  But as you scan the red counties in Southwest and Southside, the turnout was insane.  Chesterfield was back.  Hampton Roads, unreal.  It was as if the rest of the state decided they’d had enough.  Instead of complaining about Northern Virginia, they fought back.  They voted in record numbers.  And worst of all, the Democrats nationally and locally are now a party dominated by rich white liberals in the cities, suburbs and college towns and completely out of touch with the wants and needs of rural voters.  Furthermore, there is an attitude that Democrats need or even want their votes.  

The story of this election is one that the GOP locally and nationally can learn from, using kitchen table issues of education and taxes to appeal to suburban voters while maintaining the rural Trump base fired up over Covid lockdowns and mandates looking to send a message to Biden and the Democrats in Richmond and Washington.  By maxing out and then some in rural Virginia, while squeezing Terry in the suburbs, Yougnkin gave McAulife nowhere to go.  For a decade plus, Republicans have been trying to find a way to win more votes in “moderate” Northern Virginia.  After Tuesday, the question now will be how can Democrats learn some religion and head south where there are no Whole Foods.  

The final lesson I have taken is Southwest, Southside, Hampton Roads and Richmond Republicans finally got to throw the middle finger up at NOVA.  As a captive conservative in Northern Virginia, I applaud my friends down south!  Well done!  By fighting back, by voting in record numbers, you helped Glenn Youngkin show Virginia how Republicans can win moving forward.  We know the coalition now, and we must build our agenda moving forward in sustaining and growing this coalition.