Virginia Congressional Representatives 2002-2018 Visual
written by Jeanine Martin
March 29, 2018
27 comments
Jeanine Martin
Also known as Lovettsville Lady, I am a Republican activist in the wilds of western Loudoun County.
27 comments
So glad we can give Barbara Comstock the boot this year! We supported her in 2014, but what a horrible voting record since taking office. We don’t need Republicans who vote like Democrats, thank you very much.
10th District Republicans have an opportunity right now. They should either get behind Shak Hill or stop complaining.
Hold the phone there, sometimes ‘complaining’ is all I got left.
You’ll have to convince me and a lot of other Republicans that a Babs in the hand is really not better than a Shak in the bush.
Furthermore, and more importantly, you’ll have to convince me how Shak can get more votes in November than the people voting ‘not-Babs.’
I would really like to see that “factual argument” laid out also. Not a “because I say so” argument but an actual breakdown of where the votes are coming from for Shak to be remotely competitive in a potential primary win and even more so where they would come from in a general election. The 10th District consists of Clarke, Frederick, and Loudoun and the Independent Cities of Manassas, Manassas Park, Winchester, along with portions of Fairfax, and Prince William counties.
Loudoun, Fairfax, Prince Williams carry the VAST bulk of the voting population and it is were Comstock garners her base vote and wins. Clarke and Frederick are vote count rounding errors in any race so unless Shak can sweep Loudoun in a primary contest he literally has NO shot and in a general it gets much worse for him as he would need to carry at least one of the big tier one counties to be remotely competitive. I’m all in for replacing Rep Comstock in the 10th seat but FIRST you need to put forth a candidate that has some shot at doing so instead of a series of light weight philosophical panders who flit from one losing race to the next. If my realistic choice is Comstock or Wexton I’ll gladly take Comstock and still complain regarding here occasional bad votes.
Here’s the case:
1) Barbara Comstock has alienated her base. Her bad votes are not “occasional” – they look to me a lot more like standard operating procedure, and mark my words – the more secure she gets in this seat, the worse it will get. I’ve come to feel that the occasional good vote from her is a surprise, crumbs falling from the table.
2) Hard Rs care about principle more than party and won’t vote for someone with an “F” score from Conservative Review https://pdfgenerator.conservativereview.com/pdf/412658.pdf#page=1, and a 49% score from Heritage Action (19 points below the average Republican score of 68% … and remember, even the 68% takes into account all the disappointing Establishment Republicans). There are some 45,000 conservatives in the VA 10th who will not vote for Comstock. Notice this fact: Donald Trump got 1.77M votes in Virginia (and lost) … Ed Gillespie ON THE VERY SAME BALLOT got 1.17M votes (and lost). Roughly 600,000 voters (likely conservatives) got in their cars, went to the polls, waited in line, cast their ballots … and left the VA governor spot blank rather than vote for the R Establishment guy. Beware: Barbara Comstock has alienated conservatives at least as much as Gillespie.
3) But Hard Ds will vote D … and this means that nominating Comstock this go-round runs a very good chance of electing the spectacularly liberal Jennifer Wexton.
4) On the other hand, nearly all Republicans will vote for a conservative … and a Shak Hill – Jennifer Wexton matchup in the 10th easily gives us Shak Hill, for whom the Republican creed is not just a good luck charm to brandish come election time, but who (I believe) will govern like he campaigns.
Note: This is not about whether Barbara Comstock is a nice person, or even a friend … as she is to many. I like Barbara and would be happy to be a neighbor to her. But I am sure we all have have lots of friends we would not want representing us in Congress.
Barbara Comstock has violated her campaign promises, has done so repeatedly, and has thus shown herself unsuitable to carry the banner of the Republicans in the VA 10th in this congressional election. I really wish it were otherwise, but unfortunately it is not.
Well I’m certainly not one to write any defense for Barbara Comstock but I don’t believe you know much about the shifting voting demographics of the 10th district or you have Shak Hill fairy dust in your eyes. Loudoun DRIVES the 10th (along with 10th District portions of Fairfax, Prince Williams and Manassas) vote and it is NOT a conservative vote. Clarke County where I reside was once the conservative bedrock of the 10th and it now runs general voting elections with almost 50% of the local vote democratic!
A few wake up call facts. Loudoun went overwhelming for both Hillary Clinton and Northam (I mean 20 plus points massive). Ok but that is the general not a Republican primary, well the recent 2016 Presidential Republican primary saw Loudoun (and its fellow NOVA 10th district tiers go solidly Marco Rubio (over 40% of the Republican vote with Donald Trump a distant second at 28% neither of these guys being a hard right conservative). The hard core right conservative of the Hill variety in the guise of Ted Cruz finished very poorly at 14% of the vote placing him generally tied with the Republican squish John Kasich!
While you are claiming this vast conservative army based primarily on things they didn’t do I am just giving you the voting reality of what has actually happened in the vote count over the past five plus years in the 10th and frankly around the state. Shak Hill (even discounting the baggage he brings to the race) has little to no primary chance and in a general election you might as well just give the seat to the Democratic candidate. Even with Comstock it will be a fight but at least one with some upside. Virginia’s brand of preachy social conservatism isn’t selling that not my opinion its the reality of the voter base results. If you want to win it not going to happen with guys like Shak Hill. But if you want go ahead and ignore the political facts on the ground.
To what then do you attribute the 600,000-vote drop-off re: Gillespie vis-a-vis Trump? Certainly it can’t be that Gillespie was too embracing of (as you say) “Virginia’s brand of preachy ‘my way or the highway’ social conservatism?”
Remember, in last November’s bloodbath in the House of Delegates, Loudoun’s own Dave LaRock (one of the most outspoken social conservatives of the bunch) was one of the solid survivors. Why? Because 1) Conservative (including socially), and 2) He is known to keep his campaign promises.
I’m just saying I think we are in big trouble if we stick with Barbara Comstock because of her now well-established voting record.
A hold-your-nose Republican candidate does not beat a fired-up Democrat base unless the Democrat is an even worse hold-your-nose to her own base (see: HRC). It’s basic politics that you’ve got to be able to turn our your own base – and Barbara Comstock has alienated so many on her own team that I think she is seriously compromised on this front.
Again, I wish it were otherwise, but it is what it is and she is the one who made it that way. Look again at her voting record: https://pdfgenerator.conservativereview.com/pdf/412658.pdf#page=1 … Voting in favor of every big spending bill, voting to protect Government-funded sex change operations in the military, voting to block the impeachment of IRS Commissioner Koskinen, voting to continue massive taxpayer funding of abortion mill Planned Parenthood (including an increase), Voting again to fully fund Planned Parenthood, voting to expand Federal control of education, voting to protect funding for Obama’s illegal executive Amnesty, voting in Oct 2015 to increase debt by $1.5 Trillion and increase spending, voting in December 2015 for the $305B Highway Bailout Bill AND for the $1.1 Trillion budget-busting spending bill, voting again in May 2016 for another $1.1T spending bill filled with Democrat priorities, voting again in 2017 to increase spending by $81B, voting AGAIN last month to pass the horrible $1.3 Trillion omnibus that allowed Schumer and Pelosi to declare victory for their priorities, etc.
Gillespie was a statewide contest and how you can extrapolate it to the specific voting demographics of the 10th District is highly questionable. As for Del. LaRock you have a point although the 33th State and the 10th House districts do not totally overlap. Regarding keeping his campaign promises that is highly debatable but not particularly germane to these comments. Neither of these examples give me any reasonable expectation that Shak Hill stands any chance in either the primary or the general. we will just have to agree to disagree and see what unfolds in Nov.
We need purple added to account for RINOs.
Most recent Freedom Index Ratings:
Witman 65
Taylor 64
Garret 78
Goodlatte 61
Brat 83
Griffith 78
Comstock 55
Thanks for the ratings.
That’s better than I rank them. How does Freedom Index rank their districts?
The Freedom Index ranks voting records as to adherence to the Constitution. Thus, it is per person, regardless of District.
Oh, so is the assumption then that the Congressman representing the district does not matter?
Say what? Based on your answer, I don’t think I understood your question properly. Of course the Congressman matters, which is why Congress members are rated. Can you please rephrase “How does Freedom Index rank their districts?” so that we bother have the same understanding.
How did Freedom Index rank the electorate in the districts — because these are the people electing the representatives.
Freedom index looks how legislators vote on key bills and decides whether their vote is pro-constitution or anti-constitution. That is all.
Oh, so the pesky matter of ‘electing’ doesn’t get factored in. It’s rainbow unicorn politics — I ‘wish’ I had a magic conservative that I could pretend was elected.
Yeah, Freedom Index. How about a ‘Liberty Ranking’ and we could give out 1, 2, 3 flags.
Well, one of us has principles and it isn’t you.
You’d be very happy in the 8th CD. Don Beyer is being “challenged” by Thomas Oh. Thomas admires Beyer and the only thing Republican about him is that he has an R after his name.
With more Republicans like you, we’ll end up with two progressive parties to choose from at the polls. Go read the Virginia Republican Creed, it may remind you what we are supposed to be about.
Ouch, that stings.
Kudos to the 8th for challenging the Democrat, seemingly a rare occurrence for NOVA Republicans.
YOU are making our beloved GOP progressive by offering no, or lousy nominee choices.
Here are your options:
Plan A –
I) Educate yourself on national, state, local issues, people, players.
II) Get active year around and strengthen your local party.
III) Support and campaign for the most electable conservative nominee.
IV) Support and campaign for the party nominee.
V) Support and advise your elected Republican officials.
Plan B)
I) Gossip amongst your ever-shrinking circle of friends and fellow travelers. Pretend that the political world cares about your feels. Dwell on imaginary slights, perceived injustices and pointless grievances. Call yourself some degree of ‘libertarian’ and write dopey blog articles.
II) Withdraw from your local party and join a personality parade splinter group that has a freedom sounding label (tea, freedom, liberty, etc.) or even start your own with YOU wearing the special hat and epaulettes.
III) Support the most extreme and/or unelectable nominee. All the better if they have little experience, wisdom, charisma, etc. — all unnecessary because they’re running on ‘principle.’
IV) Give minimum support if at all to the nominee if they are not your guy. Take to blogs and social media badmouthing the nominee and do everything possible to suppress support. Call it ‘principle’ for bonus points. Become a #never and give your all to aiding and abetting opposition to the nominee.
V) If a win; obstruct and promote division in the rank and file. Sabotage popular support for our electeds. If a loss; credit the inferior ‘principles’ of the nominee; claim that YOUR group had a direct effect on the election, use your new found power to make party weasels show up at your monthly group gropes.
The Republican Creed is what we say we are about but instead only provide lip service for and use to immolate those who commit public relations heresy and/or do not follow established RPV dogma.
When Republicans do not select the nominee, what is the point of a Republican Creed?
Republicans didn’t really select this nominee because a call never went out asking for candidates. People only knew that one would be selected if they happened by the 8th CD website and noticed the announcement. So, there is no challenge; it is Democrat with a D after his name or Democrat with an R after his name.
BTW, if you knew me, under my mask, you would know that I follow Plan A.
It doesn’t surprise me that the ‘fighting 8th’ didn’t go out of its way to recruit Republican candidates.
However, having significantly more R’s than D’s means we have a better chance of fixing things — never a slam dunk, but a chance.
Plan A all the way! It’s the only way to win in the long run.
Saying that a cat is a dog doesn’t make it a dog. Look at all the damaged caused by Collins, Comstock, ad nauseam.
Just like saying ‘Not Comstock’ is ‘electable.’
Collins and Comstock get nominated because they are the most electable conservative Republicans.
I’d love to have more Rocinante-like nominees, but only if they can get elected.
Our broken party prevents this systemically and practically.
I learned from the boss all about tilting at windmills — always hurts you more than the windmills.
Leveraging your hard won political life experience always goes with Plan A, while a life devoted to imposing now others should live their political lives while typically neglecting your own self awareness of how you are actually conducting your own is the Plan B trademark. It has always seemed strange to me why so many Plan B’ers often call themselves libertarians constantly harping on their rights as an enforceable moral claim.
Where the Plan B types really lose me is when they appear to believe only they have the right to define which are such moral claims and those that disagree are unprincipled dolts (rather un-libertarian like). Hardly a conservative position either but much more in line with the tenets of modern left wing progressivism which they claim to abhor.
Surprised Wittman isn’t higher.
See his scorecard: bit.ly/2JaqhY5
I see Shak Hill gaining momentum, a good thing if we want a conservative in office. Comstock keeps voting for more debt what a fine legacy! Wexton is a lefty loon rubber stamp that should not be in the assembly much less congress.
Where are you looking?
There has never been a better time to take the nomination away from Babs: 1) Low-turnout primary 2) Only Conservatives up-ticket 3) highly contested dem contest same time.
Factor in evenly-matched partisan political acumen. (Only because each seems to constantly pursue a higher level of suck.)
A perfect storm.
Now which one of our nominees has the better prospect in November?