According to the latest Rasmussen Poll, Senator Mark Warner leads his opponent Ed Gillespie by 17%, with Warner having the support of 53% of likely voters while Gillespie captures 36%, with 3% of voters preferring another candidate and 9% undecided. This gap can be attributed to name recognition. Mark Warner has been in the Senate since 2008 so his name is well known. Only 2% of Virginia voters have never heard of Mark Warner while 23% have never heard of Ed Gillespie. Ninety percent of democrats support Warner while 70% of republicans support Gillespie. As Gillespie continues to campaign across the state these numbers will change. When Virginians hear Gillespie’s message of smaller government, lower taxes, abolishing Obamacare and support for the coal industry and off shore drilling, these numbers will change dramatically in Gillespie’s favor.
Warner Increases Lead Over Gillespie
written by Jeanine Martin
June 17, 2014
54 comments
Jeanine Martin
Also known as Lovettsville Lady, I am a Republican activist in the wilds of western Loudoun County.
54 comments
I just read over at Bearing Drift that Gillespie has hired Ray Allen. True? If so, just wow.
If that’s true, this campaign is already over.
I pulled this from JR Hoeft’s post So who’s Running This Party, Anyway? :
“Gillespie is the obvious choice and should be the one the party faithful rally around through the summer and into the general election. But, already, with the hiring of Ray Allen onto the campaign team, those who felt disenfranchised – or, at least, discounted – by the “slating” maneuver inflicted during party district chairman contests, are already questioning whether Gillespie will truly represent them and their interests.”
There has been made a correction to that statement in the referenced article.
Soooo… Ray Allen will not be working for the campaign. Ed Gillespie will just be using Allen’s direct mailing company. Isn’t that Ray Allen’s bread and butter, anyway (http://thebullelephant.com/slate-master-ray-allen-paid-1-13-million-rpv/) . I wonder how much of Gillespie’s war chest is going to end up as revenue for Allen? I guess this is better than him serving as consultant (maybe?) but how much damage is this man going to be allowed to inflict before he is persona non grata?
Yeah, but that is a big difference.
Yes it is.
How about Gillespie uses Allen’s mailing list and then has Shak Hill, Bob Marshall, etc., consult with/approve messages before sending out.
Personally, if I was shoring up my web presence and appearance, I would be calling in Bob Marshall’s son for design advice. He did a great job on his Dad’s site.
Still not clear if the campaign is just employing the logistical mailing side of Allens’ shop or contracting for the more content driven messaging stuff also. May be just splitting hairs in any case.
I’m not sure the premise there is correct. I’m in wait-and-see mode looking for the facts of the situation to be confirmed. If there is current Ray Allen involvement in the Gillespie campaign, we will certainly be aiming to inform our readers about it, that would be newsworthy-significant for sure.
Fair enough… I will look forward to future coverage.
pretty significant edit
This is unbelievably true that Ray Allen has been brought onto the Gillespie campaign in some as yet unspecified capacity. Wasn’t clear it was a formal position from what I heard but a clear cosying up. Interesting strategy to say the least.
“Interesting” is one way to describe this strategy… insane might be another.
Jeanine, that might be Gillespie’s message, and you are correct that Virginians will like that message; but who is going to believe him? Gillespie will never get the support of the TEA Party, or the constitutionalists, or the libertarians. Sarvis will get a solid 7 or 8 percent of the vote. He already has mine, especially after he helped clear up his immigration policies for me. I think Warner will win a very close election, because Gillespie will divide the Republicans and Warner will unite the Democrats.
The BIG Question is – “Will Gillespie reach out to the Shak Hill conservatives in a meaningful fashion?” Because as someone who actively campaigned for Shak, I see nothing about Ed Gillespie which gets me excited. I hate to be cliché but the only difference between Establishment Republicans such as Ed and faux “moderate”, committed progressives such as Warner is the speed at which the country heads towards the precipice.
I do not believe Gillespie needs to reach out in some meaningless PR move while intending to follow the same statist amnesty-pushing agenda that typifies both parties in Washington DC now, he needs a Road to Damascus moment where he realizes how very anti-conservative most of his long-held policy beliefs are and how they are driving this country to ruin whether they are pushed by Democrats or Republicans.
AmyH,
You’re right it has to be more than PR move, it has to be an integrated part of his campaign and their does have to be some movement within the “reform” wing ( I’ll be diplomatic and won’t say amnesty) of the Republican Party to understand the “others” in the Republican Party, and Americans and Legal Residents in general, who have been adversely, often tragically, impacted by a corrupt and broken immigration system.
Well if Gillespie’s anti-conservative views are driving this country to ruin, may I suggest that you and he car pool in that “drive to ruin” to save gas, as you both have the same destination.
Your budget buster support last week moved your name from the “C” column to the bottom of the “R” column.
Just why is it that Retired Republican Sen. John Warner endorses Sen. Marrk Warner instead of Gillespie?
Could it be that Ed Gillespie’s vision of America does not include the middle- class? What does John Warner know that you don’t?
Ed Gillespie’s definition of Conservatism could best be described as the same as the people who comment in BE, those who last week supported a Virginia budget with it’s almost $11 billion increase over the previous budget. And then, they re-named that budget a “win” for faux Conservatives?
Do not let Gillespie and Comstock “Bush-wack” America! Vote for the most fiscal Conservative candidate. Vote for the Candidate that Retired Sen. John Warner supports!
Vote for Mark Warner!
Jim,
Thanks for standing up for the middle class, but that last note you hit is a real clunker.
Warner is a poster boy for how politically connected individuals cash in on insider information and made themselves multi-millionaires. The Washington Post wrote a long piece years ago about how Mark Warner tapped into his connections on the Hill and then cashed out, of course, the Post being the tone death Democratic echo chamber which it is thought Warner’s success was a testimonial to the American entrepreneurial spirit.
Gillespie is a positively small fry, politically made man in comparison to high tech guru and do nothing Senator Mark Warner. At least with Gillespie I know I won’t find any slingers on my car windows after Mass shamelessly promoting Pro-Abortion candidates and platforms – one of the sicker moments of my Virginia residency, brought to me by the fabulously wealthy and all around swell guy, your “conservative” hero, Mark Warner.
And please don’t trying hawking the snake oil that John Warner from his Middleburg heights is some kind of benevolent patron and defender of the American middle class. Nice guy, maybe, but champion of the middle class, yeah sure and Liz Taylor’s Guide to Being Happily Married has inspired generations of American women.
He might not feel to comfortable at first, but in addition to attacking Warner’s do nothing record he really has to go after the institution of Senate itself, especially how the Senate and former staffers have been central to Obama’s scandals.
Agree that these early polls can be a poor future indicator but to attribute this all to “name recognition” issues is a stretch. After all Gillespie is not a totally unknown entity at either the state or national level unlike a Dave Brat for instance. Gillespie had better start aggressively differentiating both his policies and conservative credentials from Warner to Virginia voters, hopefully in a manner more effective then Mitt Romney, with whom he shares many of the same past history issues. I expect this will be a base election and if he does not secure his conservative flank his final name recognition will be “mud”.
He’s in a pickle, then, since the things he needs to do to differentiate himself from Warner are the same things the folks who put that $3 mil in his campaign account don’t want him to do.
Agreed but if nearly $5.5 million of investment from the American Chemistry Council, the American College of Radiology, the National Rifle Association, and the National Association of Realtors couldn’t prop up Eric Cantor
If Gillespie wants to learn how to be an actual conservative instead of just playing one on television, he’s got my email address. It’s probably his only chance to win but I’m guessing he won’t take it. He’s going to try the usual “just conservative enough to get base voters to the polls” tactic and fail.
To the average low information voter, Gillespie is a complete unknown. The idea that 77% of voters HAVE heard of Gillespie is stunningly wrong. Heck I don’t think most Republicans were familiar with Ed. And many Virginians don’t know the difference between John Warner and Mark Warner. If grassroots Republicans and independents stay home, they will continue to deserve the government they get.
Jerry, the grassroots Republicans won’t stay home, they just won’t vote in the Senate Race. The grassroots Republicans are the ones who spend a great deal of their time and money trying to improve the Republican Party in Virginia. They constantly fail because they cannot compete with the Wall Street and K-Street moneybags that fund men like Ed Gillespie.
Somebody please tell me why we should give Ed a lifetime retirement package if he is going to vote the big issues just like Mark? Lets just save the money for 6 years, and then let Shak take another shot.
I’m not a fan of Gillespie.
That said, there’s one very good reason to hope he wins, and that is the impeachment of Obama which will be the first item on the agenda for the next Congress.
Alexis, they’ll never impeach the President. Not ever. The GOP Establishment is so afraid of the narrative of trying to impeach the first half African American President, that they will stonewall and avoid and delay and do nothing until 2016.
I have something in the works on this topic which will be responsive to your comment. Keeping it to myself for the moment!
Oh my God, the President isn’t half African American is he?
Yes, but we will impeach ONLY the white half. That’ll put the Dems in a bind!
Pretty funny, Alexis. I never thought of that. Obama’s white ancestors go back to the Mayflower (John Howland).
Love it!
Mort — we just saw the answer to your question in the Virginia Senate — to gain control. At this point in our history, one more Republican vote — even a moderate’s vote — in the U.S. Senate might mean the difference between America’s survival as a Republic. How will we feel next year if the U.S. Senate is divided 50-50? Like we did when the Virginia Senate was divided 20-20.
If we control the U.S. Senate, we appoint chairmen, committee members, and we can bring legislation to the floor to be voted on. That could mean a lot.
An control of the Senate could mean a lot, lot, lot, if the IRS e-mails directly tie Obamugabe to that scandal, and if the Benghazi investigation shows he was playing basketball while our consulate burned.
David, how dare you suggest such a logical/basic legislative concept. After all, guys like Mort are very content to ‘lose on principal’.
I don’t know Mort, PWC, but my guess is he wants the best for America.
My guess is, like myself, he’s watched in dismay as the GOP grew the national debt, became captive to lobbyists and consultants and the Chamber of Commerce, and failed to vigorously defend Constitutional principles. And he wonders if it’s worth his time and money to help elect the kind of person who is not vigorously distancing himself from those failures. I think it’s worth it.
But if we elect a GOP Congress this year, and it doesn’t reject the failures of its past, and chart a new course, I’ll join Mort. I’ve lived in banana republics; at some point, they’re beyond redemption.
Other than some possible bright spots (Chris McDaniel in Mississippi, maybe TW Shannon in Oklahoma and Joe Carr who is rising in the polls running in Tennessee against Lamar Alexander), I am not seeing any indication that Senate Republicans have learned ANY lessons over the last few years that would mean anything but business as usual if they win the majority again.
Joni Ernst? Ben Sasse? Tom Cotton?
LOL…. short term memory loss for recent wins. OK, maybe I am being too pessimistic.
I completely agree Mort! We’ll all be donating our money to the Senate Conservative Fund five years from now to unseat another McConnell Clone. Let’s save our money and give Ken C. or Mark O. a shot at the Senate in six years.
Gillespie supported TARP – so his new-found advocacy of smaller government and lower taxes will be hard to buy. By his own words Gillespie was in favor of RomneyCare and the individual mandate. And Gillespie has said he’s for amnesty a.k.a. legalizing the millions of illegals already here in America. Gillespie is an establishment Republican through and through — a good buddy of Karl Rove.
Dave Brat’s seismic victory last week should have petrified Gillespie and the RPV.
Shak Hill was our best hope against Warner: he presented a clear difference. Gillespie is essentially Warner-lite on many of the issues.. Now many grassroots Conservatives and Independents will stay home in Nov. Gillespie will have all the campaigners that establishment money can buy but not a whole lot of committed grassroots’ support.
The race is Warner’s to lose.
You hit it exactly on the head. Thanks
polls mean nothing…… as we just saw
I found the polls in the Cantor race to be quite informative, it’s all in understanding what the poll actually means.
In this case, an incumbent with > 50% support and 98% name recognition is going to be a very difficult opponent for Gillespie to beat. Hate to be a downer, but I do not see GOP prospects in this race as good. Hope I’m wrong.
A lot depends on how much lower Obama goes in his approval ratings.
In that case there is some good news in the pipeline for Gillespie. At the current pace of events, Obama won’t be pulling 30% approval by November.
If that’s the case it will be a landslide for Republicans.
If Baghdad falls, so does Obama.
This is the first good point I’ve seen. The uninformed voter that votes on the changing tides will probably vote for Gillespie, simply because the economy will be in the tank, gas will be nearly $4 a gallon, and Obama’s approval rating will be south of 40%. Even with the TEA Party, the Constitutionalists, and the Libertarians refusing to vote or voting for Robert Sarvis, it might not matter if Obama’s popularity is in the tank.
This is the key to the race. It might simply come down to how well Gillespie pins the Obama tale of thorough incompetence and corruption on Warner. Despite the polls cited, Gillespie has to be a somewhat optimistic. I’d put Warner in a Obama cheerleading outfit and run a list/images of Obama’s “phony” scandals with the question where was Mark Warner?
Warner needs to be beaten like a drum for his Obamacare vote… unfortunately, I do not think Ed Gillespie has credibility on that issue.