More and more it looks like Trump could run the table and win every Republican primary and caucus.
In the first caucus state the Iowa polls show Trump leading over Cruz by the closest of margins but yesterday the Cruz campaign was dealt two serious blows in Iowa. First Iowa Governor, Republican Terry Branstad, told voters “It would be a big mistake” to support Cruz. Redstate.com has some interesting comments on Governor Branstad. The Governor has said he will not endorse a candidate prior to their February 1st caucus. But he has made it clear that he is not happy about Cruz’s opposition to ethanol subsidies in Iowa. (Cruz is right, Branstad’s wrong.) This happened a day after Trump received strong praise from the evangelical Reverend Jerry Falwell.
An even heavier blow hit Cruz yesterday when his close friend and supporter, Sarah Palin, strongly endorsed Donald Trump. Palin flew from Alaska to Iowa State University to rally the troops for Trump saying,
Are you ready for the leader to make America great again?” Mrs. Palin said with Mr. Trump by her side at a rally at Iowa State University. “Are you ready to stump for Trump? I’m here to support the next president of the United States — Donald Trump…..
“He builds big things, things that touch the sky,” she said as Trump looked on, glowingly. “He has spent his life looking up.”
Palin helped Cruz to win his Senate seat in Texas. Cruz has said he wouldn’t be in the Senate today if it weren’t for the support he received from Sarah Palin. It had to hurt when she endorsed Trump. So many conservatives love and respect Palin, she could make a difference in Iowa, throwing the caucus solidly to Trump.
In New Hampshire the next primary state, on February 9th, Trump is up by an average of 17.7 points. It’s hard to see a way that Trump loses New Hampshire. Is it possible for a candidate to lose both Iowa and New Hampshire and still win the nomination? Not really. It’s only happened once since 1976, in either party. Every other eventual nominee has won either Iowa or New Hampshire, if not both. The single exception was Bill Clinton in 1992 when he came in second in New Hampshire but went on to become the nominee.
If Trump wins Iowa (we know he’ll win New Hampshire), and it’s all over but the shouting. For Trump the key is a win in Iowa.
Following the New Hampshire primary is the South Carolina primary on February 20th. Like New Hampshire, it’s an open primary, and Trump dominates. Currently he is up by 14%. Three days later, February 23, is the Nevada caucus where Trump leads by 13%.
The big enchilada, Super Tuesday, is March 1st, where 14 states will have a Republican caucus or primary. While most (all?) of these states do not have recent polls, I have seen no polls in these states during the last two months that don’t show Trump in the lead. (Although Huckabee lead in Arkansas back in September and Carson lead in Colorado back in November.) Since Trump is now up by 15% in nationwide polls, I’m not impressed by any state polls prior to this month. The latest state polls are here, and Trump leads in all of them.
At this point in time, less than two weeks before the first caucus, I think Donald Trump will run the table and win every Republican caucus and primary. It brings me no joy to say this, but I believe it to be the reality we are facing in the Republican party. I sincerely hope I am wrong.
45 comments
[…] has moved back into a solid lead in Iowa. Last week I said Trump can run the table in Republican Primaries if he wins in Iowa. In the last 6 days four different polls have shown Trump in the lead in Iowa between 5 and 11 […]
Trump is the poster-boy for corruption and crony corporatism. Any of his supporters that opposed Obama prove that they are not against tin-pot tyrants, they just want a tin-pot tyrant with style.
Voters and public opinion (shaped by the media) will mature as the primaries unfold. For example–
In 2012, 2 weeks before Iowa, Romney and Gingrich were tied at 28% in the polls, with Santorum polling at around 4%. Santorum won Iowa; Romney won the nomination.
In 2008 just 2 weeks before Iowa, Huckabee and Giuliani were leading the pack at 24%; McCain was sitting at 12%. Huckabee won Iowa but McCain won the nomination. That same year, HRC was way ahead of Obama going into Iowa, but Obama won Iowa and the nomination.
In 2004, Howard Dean was the favorite going into Iowa; he led Kerry by double digits. However, Kerry won Iowa and the nomination that year.
Having said that, in 2000 Gore and Bush were favorites going into Iowa. They won Iowa and the nomination from their parties. So maybe history will repeat itself in this election cycle. However, my sense is that there are not as many voters on the Trump train as some think.
Trump will not run the table for two main reasons.
1. Organization – Trump has been focused on poll numbers, but not so much on training. It takes a lot of work to translate support in the polls to actual votes, especially in primaries and caucuses. He has dumped a lot of money into commercials and likes to brag about his rallies, but his ground game is not strong, compared to other candidates..
2. Primary rules – There are over 30 states in the U.S. that restrict crossover voting in one form or another, allowing either only Republicans, or Republicans and independents, or requiring some form of loyalty pledge in order to vote. Trump’s main base of support comes from disaffected voters, Democrats, and Independents. Many of these groups also do not vote regularly which leads to the charge that Trump’s polling support is “soft” (they tell the pollster they like Trump, but then don’t show up to vote in the primary).
Mick,
You are totally wrong about Trump’s organization and ground game. I am a Trump volunteer and his co-chairs Mark Lloyd and Dena Epenshaid are outstanding grassroots organizers. Trump campaign had over 100 folks show up on a rainy weeknight to learn how they can help the campaign. Over 15,000 petition signatures were turned in in Va. More than any other candidate. That takes a dedicated group of organized volunteers to collect such a large amount of signatures.
So Mike, keep believing that Trump doesn’t have a ground game in place while runs over the other candidates.
By the way, I recently attended a monthly meeting in PWC of a conservative group living in a gated community. Mark Lloyd from the Trump campaign came to speak to the group. Invites went out to just members of this group within their gated community. Over 50 folks showed up on a weeknight to hear Mark. These are all hard R voters.
Can you please explain what policy it is of Trump’s that you like, and why it does not matter to you that he has only held that position for five minutes?
That sounds like a lot of wishful thinking. Trump followers are a cult. They couldn’t care less that he if left of Clinton on some things. All that matters is Trump. They will show up. Obama has greatly harmed America, but it will be Trump that kills it.
Any combination of a win in Iowa/New Hampshire and/or South Carolina will very likely close the door on Cruz BUT there is always that one proviso that I have mentioned several times on this blog and that is Republican Convention Rule 40. If it comes into effect, and it could very well play out that way, then this thing could be thrown into a brokered convention in the hands of the establishment back room boys and girls. If that does by some circumstance occur ALL bets are off and Trump will be placed at a tremendous disadvantage to moving forward with the nomination. If that opportunity arises the question will be will the establishment be willing to split the party apart to deny Trump the prize? My guess would be they would as ridding themselves of the conservative wing of the party is an opportunity they would cherish as insane as the whole concept appears to be for the party’s survival.
Please do not assume that everyone in the so called “conservative wing of the party” supports Trump. Far from it. In fact I am so conservative that I think that our next president should possess a certain restraint and dignity.
I made no such assumption
I expect this election to fundamentally change the parties much like the Southern Strategy did 45 years ago. If Trump is the lead dog, and then gets denied I have no doubt he will run as an Independent. With his ability to draw Rs and Ds a new Party will be formed. If Trump wins the Republican nomination, I see significant Democrats moving over to the Republicans (I call these people I-81 Democrats because that is basically the corridor they come from). So far undiscussed, I see “establishment” Republicans moving to the Democrats IF Clinton is nominated (not so if Sanders wins).
I believe you may very well be correct and the analogy to the Southern Strategy transition where the Republicans effectively removed the Democrats and converted their long term base in the south is exactly correct. The majority of people haven’t lived through this type of event so it is difficult for them to grasp it as not all that unusual or unlikely. This in fact may be a VERY healthy event as the realignment will put the new reformed entities back into some semblance of political opposition thereby fomenting change and leaving the stagnant years of the “uniparty’ behind us. Very cogent comment.
“will put the new reformed entities back into some semblance of political opposition ” That is how I see this breaking down. The big Govt/big business/heavy regulation/tax code manipulation types will collect under the Democrat banner. Republicans will cast off the dead weight and we will actually have an opposition. But that requires a Trump-Clinton contest, which I think is the most likely.
Yes, I agree that I see this as far more unlikely without Clinton as the Democratic nominee and frankly also if Cruz does manage to gain the Republican nomination. If you buy any of this and I believe you and I do believe something might be afoot then the Cruz vs Trump voter base choice has countless tactical elements to chose from regarding selection but the strategic play for the organizational growth of conservatism nationally may only lie with Trump, as a tool albeit NOT a conservative ideologue. I’m sure this will sound crazy to Cruz supporters and others and get their heads spinning but I view politics like chess sometimes you have to sacrifice a piece or position to gain an advantage or even place your opponents king in check. Trump “might” be that strategic change agent for long suffering conservatives not for what he believes but for the structural damage he will inflict on the current status quo and what may result form those actions.
I agree 100%. The scenario only works with a Trump-Clinton contest. Conservatism will, ironically, be better off with Trump. “Trump “might” be that strategic change agent for long suffering conservatives not for what he believes but for the structural damage he will inflict on the current status quo and what may result form those actions.” Exactly.
So you do not trust Trump to keep his pledge to run as a Republican. Me neither. The Donald is all about The Donald.
If he is legitimately ahead and gets denied, then I won’t fault him one bit. But if he comes in 2nd and takes his ball and goes home, then that’s another story. Regardless, the RNC has to respect and deal with his power both in terms of the following he has gathered and that he has more money than all other federal politicians combined. He could start and fund a 3rd Party and bequeath it enough money to run for 50 years.
I-81 SPOT ON take it all the way to Tazwell.
After my fathers retirement from the Navy we were raised our last days in Carroll County. This area has seen all to much the detrimental effects of poor Trade all the way back to the break up of Ma Bell in Fairlawn , Va. and our State Troopers are now seeing human trafficking, the sumggling in of meth and heroin , then the MS-13 we see it all the way to Harrisonburg.
We gotta get a grip!
A child of I-81 myself, albeit up north, it is the same story. Places where you could formerly make a decent living that have been in a slow and perpetual decline. These are the folks most hurt by illegal aliens. They have had their wages depressed by cheap labor and have seen the factories (and then the rest of their town) closed and moved out of the country. The only growth they see is in crime. They work job sites and see illegals on-site. Many are traditionally Democrat, but have seen a Party that has done nothing for them while taking advantage of their vote and their union dues. They are as frustrated with Establishment Democrats as conservatives are with Establishment Republicans. They are ripe for the picking and willing to try something new. That something new is Donald J. Trump.
Yes , after visiting Hillsville and Pulaski over Thanksgiving and Christmas this is so.
They are the carhartt conservative , working men and women { and Palin appeals to them }. This is America everywhere.
I don’t think he will keep the pledge. He has the ploitical clout now not to. He will take all the Plant workers like Sensata and say, Where did you loose you job ?
I want to Make America Great Again
You are correct where others failed for America he will gain , it will be good.
I think he wants to go down big , like a man of Great American History .
Let’s see…………….
No, he will not run the table, i.e. come in first in every caucus and primary.
In which state will he not come in first?
There are many states where he might not come in first through March 1. Iowa it is just as likely Cruz will win. South Carolina goes with flag waving winners, which could be Cruz or Trump by then. Trump has decent chances of losing Colorado, Nevada, Texas, and Virginia. I can;t predict which will be losses for Trump, but I would say he loses at least 2 of the 6 I mentioned.
Paul please I’m frankly counting on you to avoid Trump derangement syndrome and be the normal anchor around here. Of the primaries you mentioned the RCP has Trump plus 20 in New Hampshire, plus 14 in South Carolina, plus 13 in Nevada, plus 5 in Texas, plus 11 in Colorado and finally Cruz plus 2 (within margin of error) in Iowa which most are calling break even and finally Virginia polling just a plain mess as usual. I’m not rejecting out of hand Trump might not drop two of these BUT as they all are proportional delegate states and the likelihood of a marginal delegate loss if they do occur, this isn’t a very upbeat picture for the non Trump crowd. Stay with us we are going to need you in the days ahead we have plenty of flights of fancy around here already.
There’s no TDS here. I think NH is Trump’s to lose. SC is hard to argue against, but lots of things change after Iowa and NH. Polling in NV, Texas, CO and VA is all garbage due to time lag and the fact that those opinions will be Overcome By Events by March 1. NV and CO are caucus states and anything could happen.
Two months ago I was confident that Rubio would be the nominee. Now I think the odds are 60% Trump, 25% Cruz, and 15% someone else. Unless we have a brokered convention, which would be a disaster for the nominee, but exciting or political nerds.
If really worried about my TDS go read my update on my Trump piece.
No I see your percentage breakout is interestingly close to what I put together as a first cut in fact I’m the one more aggressive percentage wise on Cruz at 30% then you are but very close. the Republican national convention rules committee met last week and in a fit of confusion while voting some adjustments apparently modified Rule 40 inadvertently. When the chair discovered their impact they quickly removed the offending motion to ensure no impact on the rule. I am very dubious that that particular rule will be modified in any manner pre-convention and it would seem to be the most significant lever to invoke a floor fight for a brokered process to me.
If only we were having a convention in Virginia, no way Trump would take the Old Dominion.
Regardless of Trump’s welcome call of “America First” and damn the aliens, I am still in shock that so many “Republicans” overlook the supremely distasteful qualities of this rude, self-aggrandizing buffoon.
Everything you say is true. But I am still in shock that so many conservatives overlook the supremely incompetent qualities of orthodox conservative politicians s in their rolling over in advance of the leftwing steamroller.
By leftwing steamroller, you mean Trump?
Trump will stomp through the primaries and the general election. The ONLY thing that can stop him will be convention shenanigans.
That was my discussion with referees at a 7/8 youth basketball game last night. We are aware of the pond scum , if this happens a hell will follow ie Hillary.
Let the bona-fide Revolution unfold.
Vote Trump!
The convention rules can be amended the day before the convention. That will be the most dangerous time. Trump is smart enough that he will have an army of lawyers and others with his entourage, but that is the point at which he will be most vulnerable.
Much of his supporter that I speak with fear these shenanigans as you say.
At that point they should change there name to the CCP China Corporate Party.
At that point they should bum-rush the stage and take the thing over.
I want to and will attend Trump’s inauguration , the convention would be fun at it’s point.
Unfortunately I will not be there , I have been previously branded { oh no what will I do } by the Campbell County Republican Party OTR { other than Republican } .
Ironic these same Republicans allow OTM { other than Mexican }to enter our Country at the southern border.
The other day, on another political blog, a Trump supporter responded to Trump’s clear liberal background by writing, “It doesn’t matter what he’s done in the past, we only care about what he’s saying now.”
Several friends told me exactly that in 2008 when I tried to persuade them Barack Obama’s past needed to be factored into whether to vote for him. Yet here we are again. It’s like a country love song, or maybe Fleetwood Mac’s “Tell me Lies, Tell me Sweet Little Lies.” The heart wants to believe so badly.
Yes, Trump wil win Iowa and New Hampshire. Its all good!
Will Kasic be VP or one of his most used and trusted advisors ? Kasic has been the only one to garner Trumps attention in policy.
What will the GOPe do if he does? Vote for Hilary I guess….
I fear the delegates .
They are not in touch with the working class conservative.
After we elect President Trump , Republicans will have 4 years to oust him
for making them use the HB Program that we have , not exploit them at our expense waiting on a even more publically funded employee importing program. Yes the Republican { pro } illegal immigrant activist are showing their true colors Red , White , and Green. Trump came to Liberty and brought out more of the public to the Vines Center than any other candidate. When AG Herring announced he would not defend DOMA , I was asked by a big local TEA Party Offical what I thought?
I said ” I ain’t never been screwed out of work by 2 homosexuals but I have been with Republicans with the jesus fish on the tailgate and McCain Country first , which country ” ? He said ” point taken “. State R’s had no problem in passing legislation to ID voters , yet they would not ID the State Documented unlicensed contractor / illegal alien.
It took an EX AFLCIO Lobbyist to do so { July , 01 2015 DOLI policy change }.
In Va. I expect everything west of Charlottsville and south of 460 to be Trump Country. Trump treads where Republicans take for granted , the conservative working class.
You know Trump sponsors thousands of foreign worker visas so he doesn’t have to pay Americans, right? Trump has made millions from outsourcing jobs overseas and importing cheap foreign labor. Can he not find Americans to clean his hotels?
Yes he sponsors them , Yes and Yes to your questions.
I am licensed Residential Building Contractor and an American Employer and I wholeheartedly supporting him.