In today’s national Quinnipiac Poll, we find the Teflon Don, Donald Trump, untarnished from weeks of tireless assaults from the Democrat and Republican Establishments, the Media, and the Blogosphere. The Donald has not merely survived these attacks, he’s actually risen in the polls. I tend to use Quinnipiac because, of all the national polls, I believe their questions and results to be the most accurate, and over the last month, Trump has risen from 24% to 27%. Remarkable.
While this poll is a validation of the reality of Trumps’ staunch swath of unshakable supporters, it also demonstrates that Ben Carson is in quite a bit of trouble. Last week I wrote about how Senator Ted Cruz was capitalizing on Ben Carson’s inexperience – again, this is not merely true in Iowa and Massachusetts, but across the fruited plains. Ted Cruz has jumped from 13% to 16% nationally, while Carson has gone from 23% to 16%.
After breaking down the Iowa poll last last week, I argued that, “while Trump will hover in the upper 20% range, as other candidates drop out, Senators Cruz and Rubio will continue to rise”. This prediction appears to apply, not only to Iowa, but to national polls as well. Like Senator Cruz, Senator Rubio is seeing his numbers rise nationwide, jumping from 14% in October to 17% in November, elevating Rubio to second place.
Yesterday, Tom White wrote a full-throated endorsement of Donald Trump, wherein he began, “It seems that in my circle of Conservative friends, you are either a Donald Trump supporter or a Ted Cruz supporter”. Either Tom got to see the Quinnipiac poll before the rest of us, or his read of his friends was frighteningly accurate. Ted Cruz and Donald Trump each share 27% support from those identifying as “TEA Party”. Each share 24% support amongst Evangelicals. Amongst the “Very Conservative”, Cruz leads Trump by a marginal 4% (29-25). Indeed, amongst our circle of Conservatives and Constitutionalists, it does appear that we’re all utterly split, with neither candidate seeing much of an advantage.
Rubio’s surge comes with some impressive numbers as well. Senator Rubio now leads both Donald Trump and Senator Cruz (19%) on the question of who is best on Foreign Policy with 22% answering that Rubio is best prepared to lead in that area. While Cruz leads in this category in Iowa, Rubio leads nationwide, which could help Rubio in New Hampshire and South Carolina. Republican voters place a great deal of weight on Foreign Policy when it comes time to vote.
Senator Rubio also leads Ted Cruz 5% to 6% on the question of who would you absolutely not support. Of the first tier candidates, only Cruz and Rubio are free of factional disgust. This is incredibly important for each of these candidates moving forward, since 95% of Republicans nationwide would consider voting for them. Donald Trump has the worst numbers, with over a quarter of Republicans saying that they absolutely do not support Trump (26%). Jeb Bush is equally burdened with 21% of Republicans saying that they would not support him.
Going forward, it’s important to keep an eye on the net favorability numbers. Senator Rubio leads the Republican field with a net favorability of 58%, Cruz with 56%, Carson with 54%, and Trump with 37%. Rubio and Cruz seem poised to rise in the polls throughout the month of December, setting us up for a three-way race between Trump, Rubio, and Cruz. This will work heavily in the favor of Rubio, since, as Tom White pointed out, Cruz and Trump are splitting the conservative base.
14 comments
So why REALLY does the GOPe and the career mercenaries and other permanent political class denizens of the Republican party so compeletly hate Trump, because he is running as a Republican, his comb forward, his attack rhetoric, his intentional pointed insults, NO I think not, here is why the hate him. Campaign funds expended to date vs latest CNN/ORC poll ratings of registered Republicans and Republican-leaning independents;
Team Bush: $28.9 million ($28.4M from Right to Rise Super PAC, $460K from campaign), poll ratings 3%;
Team Trump: $460K (all from campaign), poll ratings 36%.
Trump’s campaign has driven the big money donors and their for hire cadre of Consultants, Coaches, Handlers, Ad Producers, Focus Groups, Media Pundits, Lobbyists and Donors out of the control seat of the “election business”. Trump’s major success in my opinion will be to demostrate for the smart future candidate(s) looking to run for public office how to completely circumvent the entire money vesting and party control mechanisms of today’s Republican establishment. They and their allies in the main stream media will fight this tooth and nail. Expect this to get a whole lot uglier.
So ¡Yeb! Has only spent about 10% — that leaves him 90% to winner-take-all his way through the blues. He will not go quietly into the night.
The Donald has done more to breathe life and fire into the party than all the candidates crying ‘Liberty.’
He will give us a chance, whether or not we squander it is up to what currently passes for leadership in the rank and file of the GOP.
How do you suppose Trump’s statements about radical Islam sound about now? The establishment seems to have turned to Rubio… Here is why Rubio can go to perdition:
Gang of 8 Immigration Bill
The obvious answer: Trump-Cruz ’16
With an asterisk and a clearly defined succession bypass.
not sure how unprecedented this is. Obama faced far worse simply because he is black. Trump even attacked him for a phony birth certificate issue.
The press kisses Obama’s behind idiot… Did you ever hear of the Journ o list group to include Washington Post reporters? They coordinated favorable press coverage of that slimy Chicago style politician. Get out of here with that nonsense.
Be nice
you can revise history all you want but you cannot change it
Seems kinda trolly
which part, rocinatne? the challenging that Trump is being picked on more than anyone else has ever been? Or the history behind Obama being attacked?
Unprecedented, black stuff, phony BC issue — that post seemed trollish to me
The GOPe built this.
GOPe would have had a Bush Highlander event with the rest of the field groveling to be VP had it not been for The Donald.