Beware

Those who despise President Donald Trump are in high dudgeon these days. Indeed, their fitful indignation in the wake of the President’s remarkable political resurrection and his first weeks in office is ironic.  Why?  Because they elected him. “How,” you might wonder.  Through their missteps following his defeat in 2020.  

They hated Trump so much that they hounded him in the courts, especially when he indicated he might run for reelection in 2024.  More to the point, the objectives that Trump-haters pursued—overturning many of his policies in short order—resulted in chaos domestically and abroad.  Moreover, their lurch to the left in pressing for “woke” polices upset the delicate balance between what the electorate will assimilate and what they can bear.   People—the very people who reelected Mr. Trump—found themselves fed-up with former President Biden’s policy proclivities for things most people found unacceptable or off-putting, including how men can be women, that white supremacy is rampant, and that the invasion at our borders was something we just had to learn to live with.  We didn’t agree.  And Mr. Biden has now been exiled to the beaches of Delaware.

Several thoughts about this turn of events come to mind.  Some may be applicable to the new administration as it implements polices at breakneck speed.  I like many of them, particularly those reducing a burgeoning government, reestablishing order at the border, deporting illegal criminal aliens, and wiping away the silly policies that failed to unite us, indeed creating bitter division.  

There’s a lesson in all of that, both for the past and the present.  I’ve written about this in previous tomes.  It bears repeating here for those in the current administration.  Do not assume a mandate you do not possess.

In 2024 President Trump did receive a very clear mandate.  He won the election in the Electoral College convincingly and even secured a narrow victory in the popular vote over his chief opponent.  That is, however, just part of the story.  While the Republicans have a tender majority in the Senate, the House majority is dangerously slim.  To secure legislative victories, President Trump will need to be careful to advance policies that garner majority votes in Congress.  That is doable, but it requires that he find the intersection between the art of the deal and the art of the possible.  I think he is inclined to this balance, although most of his detractors are not.

That said, finding that equilibrium is very important to keeping the majority of Americans on his side of the issues.  And at this writing, he has them there.  Will they stay put?  That remains to be seen.

For sure, people want the issues concerning the border, fentanyl, sex trafficking, and illegal aliens committing violence in our communities to end.  Full stop.  Voters have shown remarkable patience in the initial round up of criminals.  And as long as that is his primary focus, they will back his moves.  If it strays over to deporting others who are not criminals, well, that’s when approval may fray.

Tariffs hold the same risks.  Trump’s negotiating style is obvious.  He rachets up his positions and moves quickly to implement them.  He did not merely threaten tariffs on Mexico and Canada; he put them in place.  And in short order, both neighbors agreed to work on border and trade issues.  Indeed, China must be thinking, “good grief, if that’s the way he treats his next-door neighbor, how will he deal with us?”  And that is the point.  Trump knows how to engage in brinkmanship.  However, tariff warfare done recklessly can result in higher prices at the supermarket.  And that is surely a mandate he does not have.  To the contrary, he won this election on the economy.  He must keep his eyes fixed on that.

Mr. Biden failed to keep his pledge to be a unifier.  To the contrary, Trump is working hard to keep his promises to make America great again.  What bothers those who hate him is that to date he is doing so.  As long as he stays within the bands of common sense, he will have many victories in Congress that will indeed address the problems that beset the nation.

But a warning is merited here. Beware of the Thermidorian effect.  During the French Revolution, the radicals were so intent on changing everything in France—from the government to the culture—that they even did away with the Georgian calendar and renamed the months of the year.  July—because it is the hottest month—became “Thermador.”  That was their version of using new pronouns.  But the revolution went too far.  On 9 Thermidor, year II (July 27, 1794), the revolutionary class lost their zeal for revolution.  Apparently, their leaders exceeded a mandate they never actually possessed.