Endgame

Now that the much-ballyhooed Trump vs. Harris debate has occurred – followed by analysis from all sides arguing that one or the other of the candidates had “won” – it seems timely to speculate on what the campaign’s “endgame” might look like. This could include a so-called “October surprise” – usually pitched by the trailing candidate’s camp to turn around what looks like a possible loss – with almost no time left in the game. The strategy has been employed in several elections.

In 1980, a possible October Surprise was expected, but didn’t happen. Instead, it was a non-event that revolved around allegations that Ronald Reagan had made a secret deal with Iranian leaders to delay the release of American hostages until after the election. The hostages were 52 members of the American diplomatic delegation in Iran who had been captured and detained by revolutionary elements that deposed the Shah and took control of the country in November 1979.

President Carter was damaged, politically, by his failure to obtain the hostages’ release during the year preceding the election. Their release would surely have undone some of that damage. But Iranian leaders stubbornly held the hostages until just minutes after Mr. Reagan’s inauguration in January 1981. This contributed to Mr. Carter’s landslide election-defeat. Carter-supporters continued to claim that Mr. Reagan had made a secret hostage-deal with Iran, but subsequent investigations revealed no evidence that Mr. Reagan had intervened in any way with the timing of their release,

A real October surprise was sprung by opponents of President George W. Bush in late September 2004. Reporter Dan Rather published a letter that was apparently signed by National Guard Lt. Col. Jerry Killian in 1972. It showed that Mr. Bush had disobeyed Col Killian’s direct order. This looked like big retrospective trouble for George W, until computer experts noticed that the letter’s print-font did not exist on 1970s typewriters. This meant that the letter was a fake. Nevertheless, Mr. Rather continued to maintain that the account in the letter was genuine, even if the paper copy was not. Ultimately, he was fired by CBS News for using unverified documents to interfere with the election. (It was a different time.)

This brings us to the present, with just seven weeks remaining until Election Day. With Big Media praising Kamala Harris to the skies for “winning” the debate of September 10^th, anyone just back from a trip to Mars might conclude that the election is a lock for the Democrats’ dazzling herald-ette of joy, optimism, and vague policies. But others who actually watched the debate – including graybeards of her own party – will have seen what the “show me” voters saw: that the lady with the glued-on smile and perpetual giggle offered only vague words describing how she will “fix” the economic, immigration and foreign policy messes that she and Good Old Joe made during their term. Nor has she explained why she didn’t try to block Joe’s destructive policies while she wielded the gavel as President of the Senate.

Public comments made by serious Democrats suggest that they see the deliriously joyful Ms. Harris heading for a crash in November, unless some magic rabbit pops out of the political hat in the next few weeks. That could be an October surprise that would either damage Mr. Trump, or elevate Ms. Harris, or create a situation disruptive enough to convince voters not to change horses in mid-stream. What that surprise might be is anyone’s guess. But based on the current political climate, I present a list of possibilities in the following paragraphs.

A new plague. The COVID virus, and the political/economic uproar that accompanied it in 2019-’20, were so successful in derailing Donald Trump’s quest for a second term that Plague II seems entirely likely. Of course, the Democrats were able to blame the plague and the economic crash that it produced on Mr. Trump in 2020. With him no longer in charge, this might seem harder to do. But Democrats’ media spin-meisters would surely find a way to blame him anyway. Or they might argue that Mr. Biden “solved” the COVID crisis, so he and Kamala can do it again. Either way, keep an eye peeled for the newest virus-invasion. I wouldn’t bet against it.

Economic emergency. This might resemble the banking crisis that helped Barack Obama win in 2008. Democrats then were trying to pull the presidency away from Establishment Republicans. This time, they would be trying to keep Mr. Trump from regaining the office, so they would argue against “changing horses in midstream.” They might also argue that a “convicted felon” shouldn’t be trusted with financial matters.

War. This would be another – more extreme – national emergency employed to support Democrats argument for leadership continuity. But Kamala Harris doesn’t really represent continuity. Or does she? (Details, details.) From the start of Mr. Biden’s presidency I have warned about his inclination to get us into a war to guarantee his second term. That won’t happen now, but like the Sword of Damocles, Joe Biden’s war-threat hangs over us as his most dangerous presidential legacy. Peace-loving Americans need to be extremely vigilant about this threat.

New revelations about Mr. Trump. Something like the Stormy Daniels surprise of 2016 could be launched. The bimbo-ploy didn’t seem to damage The Donald very much in 2016, so this time Dems might charge that he ran off with the Mother Superior; or maybe that he tried to date Hillary Clinton. (OK! Scratch the Hillary-idea. It would be ridiculous.)

New revelations about Ms. Harris. Info might emerge that the vice-president actively participated in the mission that took out Osama bin Laden. She might even have been the one who fired the fatal shot. The military possibilities are many. She’s a little too young to claim that she rode with Quantrill’s Raiders or knew Sgt. York, but she might look good as Wonder Woman.

The pokey-ploy. A serious attempt to throw Mr. Trump in jail might occur in one of the locales where he has been tried and convicted on questionable charges. The lock-him-up tactic would put the Secret Service on the spot, no matter which way they go on it. Should agents resist the attempt to jail Mr. Trump – as many Secret Service veterans claim they must do – an armed confrontation between Mr. Trump’s detail and local police, including actual gunfire, might occur. On the other hand, should the Secret Service stand down and let Mr. Trump be captured, a huge national uproar would turn the country upside-down.

Fake attempt. Desperate Democrat-partisans might engineer a fake assassination incident on the vice-president, which would be foiled – possibly by the vice-president’s own heroic action. It might even be disclosed that Ms. Harris packs a brace of pearl-handled .44s under her pants-suit, as some insiders have intimated.

Real attempt. Should a second try on Mr. Trump’s life occur – as many have expected – there would be nothing humorous about it. On July 13^th a young, rifle-toting, would-be assassin was seen and tracked – but not stopped – before he opened fire on Mr. Trump at a rally in Butler, PA. He missed a fatal shot by a whisker before agents – who were obviously watching him – took him out. In the aftermath, the Secret Service’s lack of transparency on the incident has raised several unanswered questions concerning the quality of the former president’s protective detail. Rumors are even circulating about a possible “conspiracy of negligence” that might have been operating at the time. Mr. Trump is a smart and experienced businessman, so we can only hope that he has been smart enough to employ his own trustworthy security detail, going forward. His injury (or worse) in a second assassination try would tear the country apart.

Other October Surprises are possible. Let’s hope that not one occurs in the coming October.

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As I post this article, another assassination attempt on Mr. Trump is being reported. God help us.