After 2022, I lost a lot of respect and interest in poll numbers, but Rasmussen has always had good data and has been fairly reliable over the years. One thing that we have been told from the talking head so called experts is that Nikki Haley is the only Republican who can beat Biden. However Rasmussen, who has been historically accurate (even when I disagree with them vehemently) says in their latest poll, that Trump is ahead by 8 (49-41), DeSantis is ahead by 1 (42-41) yet Nikki Haley is behind (38-36).
There are several things that can and should be taken from this data.
- Most people do not know who Nikki Haley is. Nikki Haley is not known by most voters, and polling this early is very dicey. This does not mean that Nikki Haley cannot win if she’s the nominee. But it does mean that Nikki Haley is not the shoo in that the GOP ruling class wants you to believe, and that she has a lot of work to do.
- Ron DeSantis is not looking good. He’s almost as well known as is Trump. And DeSantis is the best of Trump, without having some of Trump’s negatives. However DeSantis has run a lackluster campaign, and may be finished after the Iowa caucuses. If DeSantis doesn’t have the same or better numbers than does Trump nationwide, it’s clear that what he’s selling, the voters are not buying. I take no pleasure in saying this – as DeSantis has been a great governor and would be an excellent President.
- The GOP base has fundamentally changed in the past 10 years. The War Hawk leg of the Reagan coalition is fading from being part of the GOP coalition, and is being replaced. This is because of the bungling of the Iraqi War, and the fact that more and more people no longer trust the foreign policy intelligentsia to manage a world crisis (and believe these same self appointed geniuses are very likely to start a war that could be avoided)
- Trump is very electable. Some people may be put off by aspects of Trump’s personality, but they do remember that he got us out of wars – where Biden has bungled Afghanistan, and funded the war in Ukraine. They remember the great economy we had before COVID. As the meme once said – I’ll take mean tweets over $4.00 gas and inflation. This does not mean Trump is a shoo in. Biden has a lot of built in advantages – such as getting a free pass from the corporate media, that we still take for granted. And this cannot be overstated – polling this far out is faulty at best. The issues that will drive the 2024 election may be quite different in October than they are now.
Again I don’t care who you’re supporting here. If you’re supporting DeSantis, Nikki Haley, or Ramaswamy, that’s awesome, and I’m glad you’re a part of Team GOP. I’ve already endorsed Trump as most of you are aware, but at the end of the day, one of the above mentioned names will be the nominee, and we’ll need to be supporting each other. It’s important for me to take a moment and thank each one of you for keeping your powder dry against fellow Republicans. So far this has been a pretty clean campaign, and while there has been sniping back and forth between the candidates, this has not gone on between the volunteers. Those of you who are supporting Ramaswamy, DeSantis, or Haley are doing so for reasons that are to be admired.
I remain
your servant
S John Massoud
6th District Republican Party Chairman
4 comments
Oh, please.
The Republican Presidential field consists of a lying crook who is a failed businessman and a moral degenerate. The rest of the field is mental midgets of no particular accomplishment, intelligence or distinction.
The only poll that counts is the one to be taken November 5, 2024, which will re-elect President Biden and VP Harris.
Now, I understand this is not what you dimwits want to hear but the truth is the truth.
Get back to me on November 6, 2024.
Edgar, your candidates consist of a cackling idiot and a guy whose crack addled son ran the family influence business..
Can someone of your level of intelligence understand that there is nothing worse than a politician selling influence?
How do Democrat politicians, who had no previous careers except politics end up with millions upon millions of dollars..
The Clintons are worth north of 100 million. The community organizer is worth about 70 million they say.. enough to have
three mansions.
Yes they will probably be in the White House again.. because of morons like you.
I dont’ really care anymore… let them drown in a country that is going to hell anyway. Might as well have the corrupt and stupid politicains this idiot country deserves..
And moral degeneracy… Yeah Trump is no choir boy… but you defended Clinton.. a man who likes em young on Epstein Island… And you have Joe Biden, a man who showered with his daughter according to her diary.. probably inappropriately in her words..
That diary then became a focus of the Federal Biden Investigation outfit.. Harassing James O’Keefe about it.. when it was out in public for years.
I can’t get behind Bird Brain. Sorry John. I like Ramaswamy a lot. He has the courage to say things and won’t get attacked the same way a white guy would. Plus he speaks intelligently. Incredibly how adept he is at making idiot communication major morons at NBC et al look like idiots… or rather revel how stupid they are. Plus he is not a traitor like Haley or to a degree DeSantis. The Never Trumper corporate donors whispered in his ear.. He should have waited four more years… But he is a young man and being President will make you very wealthy… See the community organizer who now has mansions in Chicago, Hawaii and Martha’s Vineyard..