Weak GOP candidates in 7th and 10th districts could keep seats in Democrat control

No Republican emerges with significant fundraising prowess, ballot recognition; 2^nd district seems secure for GOP

Unless a Republican officeholder with ballot recognition and fundraising acumen enters the Republican contest for U.S. House in the 7^th and 10^th congressional districts by the April 4 open primary deadline, Democrats look like they will keep those two seats, which are open.

Especially if Donald Trump is the GOP nominee for president – historically unpopular in Virginia –and if the Democrats continue to demagogue on the abortion issue –this also could impact Rep. Jen Kiggans (R) in the 2^nd, although it seems she is more assured a second term due to a weak Democrat opponent.

In the 10^th district,  Aliscia Andrews, the Marine who worked in Gov. Youngkin’s administration and on his PAC,  and was the GOP nominee in 2020, seems to me to be the only Republican who could possibly take the seat – particularly if some significant skeleton is found in the closet of whomever wins the Democrat primary to succeed retiring Rep. Jennifer Wexton.  However, the Democrat primary field is crowded with five current and former members of the General Assembly – all of whom know how to fundraise.  Some are not even residents of the 10^th, like former House Speaker Eileen Filler-Corn, but that doesn’t matter for U.S. House races.

The seats in both the 7^th and 10^th will be decided in the June 18^th state open primary, not by convention or caucus.

The 2022 contest in the 7^th between Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D), who is retiring to run for governor of Virginia in 2025, and Republican Prince William County Supervisor Yesli Vega was a close one.  Vega was a great candidate and she beat out State Sen. Bryce Reeves and a few GOP office holders to get the nomination.  It’s a shame she lost by about five points.

But this year, not a single GOP candidate in the 7^th has been elected to anything and their fundraising has been pitiful.

According to OpenSecrets.org, the only Democrat with more than $1 million raised is Eugene Vindman — who helped his twin brother, Alexander, file a report that brought about the first impeachment inquiry into President Donald Trump over his efforts to get Ukraine to investigate Hunter Biden.  

 From OpenSecrets.org 

Candidate	Raised	Spent	Cash on Hand	Last Report
Yevgeny ‘Eugene’ Vindman (D)	$2,022,600	$926,617	$1,095,983	12/31/2023
Derrick Anderson (R)	$460,494	$135,706	$328,403	12/31/2023
William Moher (R)	$353,571	$76,537	$277,034	12/31/2023
Cameron Hamilton (R)	$255,376	$160,214	$95,162	12/31/2023
Margaret Franklin (D)	$122,894	$7,585	$115,309	12/31/2023
John Prabhudoss (R)	$100,152	$15	$100,137	12/31/2023
Briana Sewell (D)	$99,989	$2,788	$97,201	12/31/2023
Elizabeth Guzman (D)	$43,589	$1,444	$42,145	12/31/2023
Clifford Heinzer (D)	$27,894	$2,013	$25,881	12/31/2023
Jonathon Paul Myers (R)	$21,864	$8,224	$13,640	12/31/2023
Terris Todd (R)	$11,911	$11,197	$714	12/31/2023

Last week, Prince William County Supervisor Andrea Bailey, who was just reelected to a second term in November, announced her candidacy for the Democrat nomination, so there is no fundraising record yet for her.  But she raised very little for her 2023 campaign, according to the Virginia Public Access Project, www.VPAP.org  Bailey has announced she has the support of former Gov. Ralph Northam.

Both Democrat Del. Briana Sewell and former Del. Elizabeth Guzman have demonstrated the ability to get donations and have won elections.  Guzman, for example, raised and spent more than $500,000 last year  to lose a state senate primary to Jeremy McPike, who was re-elected. Sewell raised $300,000 but she also lost the Dem nomination for Lt. Governor in 2021.  

Only Republicans Derrick Anderson and William Moher have raised over $300,000.   The Washington Post outlines the 15 candidates in both parties here.

According to Ballotpedia, the 7^th is a D+1 district based on the Cook Political Report scale, meaning it is 1 percentage point more Democratic than the national average.  But if Joe Biden were to face Trump in 2024, he could win 52.6% to 45.8%.

I just don’t see any of these Republicans winning and wish someone with money and knowledge, like former Sen. Jill Vogel, would run, but she seems to be comfortably out of politics.

In the 10^th district, the Republican with the most money on hand is Mike Clancy, who along with Brooke Taylor, ran in the 2022 firehouse primary which Hung Cao won.  However, four of the 10 announced Democrats seeking Wexton’s seat are ahead of Clancy in fundraising   

And now, 

Candidate	Raised	Spent	Cash on Hand	Last Report
Daniel Helmer (D)	$622,046	$83,258	$538,788	12/31/2023
Krystle Veda Kaul (D)	$602,744	$35,254	$567,490	12/31/2023
Eileen Filler-Corn (D)	$382,255	$89,235	$293,020	12/31/2023
Suhas Subramanyam (D)	$271,902	$29,553	$242,349	12/31/2023
Mike Clancy (R)	$229,703	$42,314	$187,389	12/31/2023
Jennifer Boysko (D)	$201,402	$44,471	$156,931	12/31/2023
Atif Qarni (D)	$183,297	$2,244	$181,053	12/31/2023
David Reid (D)	$123,716	$19,151	$104,565	12/31/2023
Travis Nembhard (D)	$61,943	$2,316	$59,627	12/31/2023
Brooke Taylor (R)	$61,114	$4,372	$56,741	01/01/2024
Brandon Garay (D)	$5,411	$4,828	$1,049	12/31/2023
Manga Anantatmula (R)	$2,126	$746	$1,380	12/31/2023
Mark Leighton (D)	$1,250	$10	$1,240	12/31/2023

The only Republican with elected experience and ballot recognition is former Loudoun County School Board member John Beatty, who was crushed in the 2022 primary.

You can read more about the announced 10th district candidates here,  but my money is on Andrews, although the dynamics of the district where 90 percent of the votes come from liberal Loudoun, Prince William and Fairfax counties seem to benefit the winner of the Democrat primary.

Too bad no GOP elected office holders are running, notably Fairfax County Supervisor Pat Herrity and Loudoun Supervisor (and former colleague of mine) Matt Letourneau.  Both live in the 10^th and have excellent fundraising abilities and ballot recognition. But they are not running because they know they can’t win.  The various wannabes running in the GOP primaries are doing so for ego, to get interviewed on Fox News or Newsmax, or leverage themselves for a political appointment.

But even in 2022, the 10th was not targeted by the national GOP committees in Washington [like the RNC] and this year I don’t expect them to get involved in the 7th, unless a really good candidate emerges before April 4th or a Democrat nominee falthers.

I wish Hung Cao had run again for House in the 10^th, but he is off and running for U.S. Senate against incumbent Democrat Tim Kaine – and given Hung’s fundraising capabilities and background, I expect him to be our nominee.  However, I don’t expect him to win election, especially with Trump leading the ticket, but I would never discourage Republican activists from helping their candidates despite the odds.

Thankfully, it seems Rep. Jen Kiggans is safe in the 2nd Congressional District election. The leading Democrat candidate is Missy Cotter Smasal, who ran a close race against Sen. Bill DeSteph in 2019, and will give Kiggans a decent run, but I don’t see Jen losing, and I sure hope she does not have a primary contest like she had in 2022.