But 2024 is a year the Virginia GOP can regroup for 2025 state elections
I guess I should start by wishing you all a “Happy New Year.”
I hope 2024 is better than 2023. As a Jew, seeing anti-Semitism come out of the woodwork in the worst way due to the Israel-Gaza war, and as a Republican, who lost election (his first) and saw the Democrats gain control of the General Assembly, how can I say 2023 was a good year for Virginia?
While I am dubious of Republican chances to recover, I think Jews, Judaism and Israel will survive – despite the loud and aggressive minority of Americans calling for cease-fire and freeing Palestine from “the river to the sea.”
I’m reminded of what one of my rabbis taught us about the destruction of the 2nd temple in 66 CE. There it was, burning to the ground due to the Roman assault, and two rabbis watched from the distance. One said: “What a horrible day this is!” The other said: “No, it’s a good day,” because he knew we would endure – and we did.
So, for Republicans like me, still smarting from the Democrat takeover of the Virginia General Assembly on Nov. 8, we need to regroup in 2024 – but I am doubtful of us winning any statewide elections this year, at least in Virginia.
That’s because if Republican frontrunner Donald Trump gets the nomination for president, his caustic unpopularity with swing voters and soft Democrats will likely bring down the down-ballot Senate and House candidates, despite the fact we have a good chance or retaking the U.S. Senate, according to projections.
Given the potential for a strong Green Party nominee in Jill Stein, who could steal a lot of votes from Joe Biden (presumed Democrat nominee) due to his support for Israel, Trump could eke out an electoral college win. But I don’t believe he will have a GOP Senate and House to get things done. Trump ruined GOP chances for a Republican Senate in 2022, if you recall, and we barely held on to the House.
In Virginia, I am less confident of Republican chances, barring some occurrence in 2024 that drives Democrat voters to vote GOP or not vote in great numbers.
Let’s be real, folks — none of the GOP US Senate candidates have any real chance of unseating Democrat incumbent Tim Kaine. Only one announced candidate, Hung Cao, has run on a ballot before, and lost. Secondly, Trump has never been popular in this state, and even if Nikki Haley or Ron DeSantis should somehow get the presidential nomination instead, vote-rich Northern Virginia is so “Blue” and Hampton Roads is trending that way, I just don’t see how we carry it.
Instead, Job 1 for the local GOP units and activists should focus on keeping control of the U.S. House 2nd and try to win the open seats in the 7th and 10th. Job 2 is to start thinking about 2025’s gubernatorial-lt. governor-attorney general and House of Delegate elections – if we have any hope of trying to save the Commonwealth from permanently becoming a failing Blue state.
Keep in mind, Democrats control the state senate until 2027’s elections. I suppose we could take control of the HOD, since we only need 2 net seats, but the problem is this – I am pretty confident Democrats will pass the abortion-on-demand constitutional amendment in this session and in 2025, and put it on the ballot for the voters in November 2025.
This referendum will attract a surge of liberal voters to the polls, including folks who generally do not vote in state and local races. Sad to say, but high turnout does not help Republican candidates in this state.
Secondly, U.S. Rep Abigail Spanberger is off and running for governor, and she is a formidable candidate as we saw when she bested Republicans Nick Freitas and Yesli Vega in the last two congressional elections. Winsome Sears and Jason Miyares, the two likely GOP standard bearers for governor (as Glenn Youngkin is term-limited), have made no announcements.
Miyares is great at fundraising and has a stellar record. Sears has a poor fundraising history with just $630,000 in her PAC account and no record of results (which is hard to attain as Lt. governor, unless the governor gives them something specific to do). I think Spanberger, if she is the nominee, beats her badly, and she has $1.4 million in cash on hand from her federal campaign account
Too bad the advisers to Gov. Youngkin did not introduce the car tax repeal BEFORE this election, which I believe would have yielded full GOP control of the General Assembly. Many of us candidates ran on that pledge, but the governor and the House and Senate caucuses held most of the money and instead focused on crime and schools.
The result of Democrat control of the House and Senate in Richmond means no rollback to the many draconian “progressive” laws adopted under former Gov. Blackface Northam in 2020-2021 notably — 45-day voting, automatic mail-in ballot requests (all of which help Democrat candidates), laws shackling our police, requiring 35% of all cars sold in 2026 and beyond to be electric and hybrid, plus allowing county, city and town public employees to unionize. All of these only solidify Democrat dominance in Virginia’s urban and suburban areas and will force residents and businesses to flee – much like what is happening in New York, Illinois and California.
So, 2025 is do or die for Virginia. If the Democrats regain full control in Richmond in January 2026, you can kiss the Old Dominion goodbye.
So, Happy 2024 and hope we Republicans get to work in proactive ways to rebuild, and please support Israel and help combat anti-Semitism.
3 comments
“if Republican frontrunner Donald Trump gets the nomination for president, his caustic unpopularity with swing voters and soft Democrats will likely bring down the down-ballot Senate and House candidates, despite the fact we have a good chance or retaking the U.S. Senate, according to projections.” – This comment is wrong.
The reason Republicans won in 2016 is because President Trump attracted many non-Republican voters who were tired of politicians as usual. Trump was seen as a non-politican, who voiced their concerns, especially on illegal immigration that nobody else was talking about.
In 2020, highest Republican vote in history was once again, because President Trump was on the ballot.
The weak vote in 2022 was indeed because of President Trump. But, not for the reasons you cite. It is because he was not on the ballot. Many of the voters he attracts are not politicos who read blogs like these. They are anti-politics-as-usual people who simply don’t vote when President Trump is not on the ballot.
To sit out 2024 if President Trump is the nominee is dumb. We should all be doing everything we can to get rid of DEMs at the Federal level, and the damage they cause. We’ll do that with the help of people who only President Trump can motivate to vote.
I come from a different era, when women called their baby in the womb a baby, a human one, not a fetus to kill if undesired. Women need to accept responsibility for their actions. Democrat Virginia in love with abortion (sic baby killing) will face higher taxes and unnecessary economy-killing CO2 restrictions. I was unable to persuade a local Loudoun newspaper to print my letter to the editor explaining carbon dioxide is not a problem. E.g., during 2 significant downturns in fossil fuel use–COVID lockdowns and the 2008/9 financial collapse–carbon dioxide in the atmosphere increased. It should have decreased. If there is no correlation, then there certainly cannot be cause and effect. In addition, scientists and engineers who actually work with gases say gases cannot hold heat. Thus, it is impossible for CO2, e.g., to heat up the planet. These 2 examples are not theoretical; they are actual observational science. So we will cling to a refutable theory and destroy our economy in the process while non-western countries continue to enjoy the benefits of fossil fuel use. Are we nuts?
(Hi, Ken)
#1 Stopping/derail Spanberger
#2 Stopping/derail Spanberger