7:38 PM – Amanda Chase defeats incumbent Sen. Steve Martin! Wow! Huge upset. Chase will be a fantastic addition to the Senate. Very much looking forward to her breath of fresh air in Richmond! Sen. Martin has been an honest player and dedicated Republican, and we thank him for his years of service.
By: Steve Albertson
7:22 PM – Dudenhefer wins nomination for House District 2. Congratulations Mark!
By: Steve Albertson
7:18 PM – Congratulations Speaker Howell on your re-nomination! Final percentages not yet determined, but Howell’s lead is not surmountable.
By: Steve Albertson
7:15 PM – Not yet final, but looking like Howell will likely win with more than 60%. Will call the race within the next few minutes.
By: Steve Albertson
6:57 PM – Ugliest Tweet of the Day…so far. No comment on its accuracy.
Just got this in the mail from @Frank_Underwood. Fucking tyrant. @bearingdrift @RTDSchapiro @BullElephant pic.twitter.com/N6BgLSSjJa
— NotSusanStimpson (@NotSuzyStimpson) June 9, 2015
By: Steve Albertson
6:15 PM – Turnout surge in the 28th. It’s looking like commuters are engaging when they are getting home, or the election day knock-and-drag efforts of the Howell campaign have paid off (or both), but turnout looks to end pretty high in the 28th district. Don’t have all the numbers available, but may be in the neighborhood of 8,000. That is likely welcome news in the Howell camp.
By: Steve Albertson
6:00 PM – The campaign is over…really, really over. All the campaigns today gave a workout to their email servers, their phone banks, and their volunteers. If the voter hasn’t been reached and engaged by now, all that’s left is those last pieces of literature they may or may not accept as they walk up to the polling place. Jobs well done to all candidates, their staffs, and their supporters! These events are important in building our party, and in defining what we stand for. Everyone who has participated deserves thanks for their involvement and hard work.
The Bull Elephant expects to be able to call the races in House Districts 2 and 28 (Dudenhefer/Ciampaglio and Howell/Stimpson) by about 7:30. Other results will have to wait on SBE’s posted vote totals.
By: Steve Albertson
5:26 PM – Light at the end of the tunnel. Looking forward to again being on the same team as all my friends in a couple of hours.
By: Steve Albertson
5:01 PM – Tell us how you really feel, Mr. Hoyt. The operator of the local Stafford chapter of the SPCA, Bill Hoyt, has a bone or two to pick with incumbent Commonwealth’s Attorney Eric Olsen. He’s vocally supporting Olsen’s opponent, Stafford-based attorney Jason Pelt. In a bit of independent action, Hoyt has had these signs printed and placed all over the county. Pay close attention to the disclaimer line at the bottom. More here on the dispute underlying this animus.
By: Steve Albertson
4:29 PM – What about the Senate races? Emmett Hanger’s folks think he has it in the bag. Probably true, as Moxley doesn’t appear to have done enough mail and voter contact to pull it out in a three-way race. Will be interesting to see how well they all do outside Augusta County. Amanda Chase is reportedly far outstripping incumbent Sen. Steve Martin in terms of working the polls and election day operations, making this upset seem increasingly likely. Regarding Haley/Dunnavant/Janis, Haley’s strategy of positioning the other two as moderate splitters may be working. His folks think he’s positioned well to get a plurality. This still seems in the toss-up category.
By: Steve Albertson
4:08 PM – What would a large turnout mean in the Stimpson/Howell race? Indications are that turnout has been steady, and larger than one would have guessed within the first couple of hours.
On the one hand, if turnout is above average, it may show that Howell’s expensive effort to make contact with a large number of voters and get them to the polls has worked. That’s conventional wisdom. On the other hand, a large turnout from the more transient portions of the population (i.e., military families and others who don’t have deep ties in the district and/or to Howell or his close backers), it could indicate successful engagement by Stimpson on her bedrock conservative message on taxes and spending.
This is a very difficult race to analyze without solid metrics, which we won’t have until shortly after 7:00 pm tonight. We’ll post results live here.
By: Steve Albertson
4:04 PM – Reports indicate historically low turnout in HD2 Dudenhefer/Ciampaglio race. In the battle of the exotic surnames, it looks like turnout so far is at about 1000, district-wide. Conventional wisdom says this benefits the underdog who has positioned himself to the right of the frontrunner (i.e., Tim Ciampaglio), but I would be very surprised if Mark Dudenhefer hasn’t turned out way more than 500 of the people on his lists. He’s won in this district before, and has several victories in his old Supervisor district which overlaps in large part with the House district.
By: Steve Albertson
4:00 PM – Sorry for lull in posting. The day job comes first. Will resume regular posting now.
By: Steve Albertson
1:13 PM – Tweet of the day…so far.
This gentleman told me I should be home doing the dishes. I told him I already did today. I’m a multi-tasker. #hd28 pic.twitter.com/8RYdGQFxSj
— Susan Stimpson (@SusanBStimpson) June 9, 2015
By: Steve Albertson
12:50 PM – RTD round-up of today’s contests. The Times-Dispatch guide to local primaries.
By: Steve Albertson
11:45 AM – Yard sign saturation.
By: Steve Albertson
11:38 AM – Complementing coverage. The Bearing Drift team has coverage of places we don’t. Check ’em out.
By: Steve Albertson
11:35 AM – Interesting demographics in HD28. Based just on election day observations, women seem to strongly break for Stimpson, regardless of age. Seems the ladies don’t react well to 5 male supervisors “bullying” (to quote one voter with whom I spoke) the woman candidate. Older voters, especially couples and single men, seem to break toward Howell. No conclusions necessarily to be drawn from this, yet.
By: Steve Albertson
11:07 AM – If Facebook decided elections. Interesting “analysis” at Virtucon.
By: Steve Albertson
10:55 AM – Ridiculously low turnout in Prince William. Belmont precinct (House District 2) reports 10 voters as of a few minutes ago.
By: Steve Albertson
9:30 AM – More misconduct at the State Board of Elections. Cameron Sasnett, whom I’ve known since I served on the Stafford County Electoral Board, was fired from his job with the State Department of Elections yesterday, the day before the primary. Sasnett was among those within the organization who revealed that Speaker Bill Howell had requested the changing of absentee ballot application rules in the middle of the game. Sasnett has revealed to me that among the Elections staff, though they support the action to increase voter access, many questioned the timing of the decision. He believes that having the Speaker of the House be the one making the request provided a sanction of support for the Board to take the action when they otherwise would not have done so.
Apparently, even though Sasnett had been open with colleagues about the fact that several of his friends in Stafford, including those close with the Stimpson campaign, were inquiring about the rules change, Elections Commissioner Edgardo Cortes did not get wind of Sasnett’s connection to this story until last week, when he made the decision to terminate the whistleblower’s contract.
Sasnett revealed non-confidential details of a public meeting that were recorded in public documents (i.e., that Speaker Howell requested a rules change) subject to FOIA, and for this he has lost his job.
Yes, this IS McAuliffe’s SBE.
By: Steve Albertson
9:10 AM – Prediction: Amanda Chase will win in her bid to unseat Sen. Steve Martin. How do I know? Because I saw this. That’s how you do grassroots campaigning, folks!
By: Steve Albertson
8:10 AM – Relatively low turnout so far in Stafford. Good news for Susan Stimpson. The Speaker’s resources have been devoted to winning over the most reliable Republican electorate, but also to pulling in a larger electorate than would normally show up on election day to outweigh any strength Stimpson may have among ordinary primary voters. To the extent that is successful, turnout will be higher than normal.
By: Steve Albertson
8:00 AM – Early reports of problems in Prince William that could negatively affect the campaign of Tim Ciampaglio. Apparently the Rippon precinct had not opened before almost a full hour after it was supposed to have done so, as the elections crew could not get into the building. We have no specific reports of voters not being able to vote as a result of this, but in a commuter district, losing the first hour has a potential to be huge, especially when you’re Tim Ciampaglio and are counting on relative strength compared to Mark Dudenhefer in Prince William.
By: Steve Albertson
