I’m no reader of the political tea leaves, and I will willingly defer to those better informed than I am, but it appears that the presidential primary vote in Virginia showed a greater level of enthusiasm for Republicans than for Democrats. That may simply reflect the fact that in the Republican primary Donald Trump had a credible (or semi-credible) challenger, while the Democratic primary offered no serious alternative to President Joe Biden. But I think there’s more to the story than that.
Top-line numbers: 690,000 votes were cast for Republican presidential candidates compared to only 346,000 for Democrat candidates.
Digging into the details, I replicate here two maps published by the Virginia Public Access Project. (Click here to view the interactive maps with a breakdown of turnout by locality.) The first thing to note is the scale used to measure the turnout in each locality — 1.9% to 20.9% for Republicans and 0.7% to 10.4% for Democrats. That alone tells you that Republican turnout was higher as a percentage of registered voters across the board.
Remarkably, Republican voting (10.6% of registered voters) in Virginia’s most populous jurisdiction, Fairfax County, exceeded that of Democrats (7.5%). The picture was the same in other Northern Virginia Democratic strongholds such as Loudoun County (10.7% to 5.3%) and Prince William (9.6% to 5.8%).
Blue turnout exceeded red only in a handful of localities, such as the peoples’ republics of Arlington and Charlottesville and overwhelmingly Democratic cities with large African-American populations like Richmond, Petersburg and Portsmouth. Even there, blue votes exceeded red by narrow margins.
By contrast, the elephant stomped the donkey in traditionally red jurisdictions — 20.9% GOP in Clarke County compared to 5.3%, 20.8% in Hanover County compared to 4.1%, and 16.6% in Augusta County compared to 2.2%.
Participation in the Republican primary was undoubtedly boosted by Democrats crossing over to cast votes for Nikki Haley. That effect is hard to measure. But if it were a factor, one would expect to see the biggest divergences from past voting patterns in heavily Democratic localities. My hunch is that the crossover effect was modest, but I would be happy to see anyone’s analysis that suggests otherwise.
At the end of the day, Virginia still leans blue in presidential races. I don’t expect 2024 to be an exception. Democratic turnout will surge in the general election when the stakes are much higher. Furthermore, a number of Haley voters are likely to vote Democrat or Independent rather than mark the ballot for Trump in November, while desertions by Williamson and Philips voters from the Democratic ticket would be inconsequential. But the turnout in Tuesday’s primary suggests that GOP voters are more fired up than Dem voters, and the Trump-Biden race could be closer than anyone expects.
Published at baconsrebellion.com
6 comments
In case you missed it . . . and I feel certain you did: THE RIDICULOUS ATTEMPT TO IMPEACH PRESIDENT BIDEN IS OVER. DEAD. STICK A FORK IN IT. As is the attempt to impeach DHS Secretary and to put Hunter Biden in jail.
The Republican effort to impeach President Biden has collapsed. That is good news for Joe Biden, Democrats, and the American people. Here’s what happened:
The witnesses touted by the House Oversight Committee turned out to be non-existent, liars, or favorable for Joe Biden.
The Committee’s “smoking gun” witness was Alexander Smirnov, who turned out to be a Russian tool who was lying to the FBI about Hunter Biden’s alleged corruption.
Hunter Biden demolished the House Oversight Committee in his deposition.
In desperation, the Committee turned to a securities fraudster currently serving a 14-year prison sentence for swindling the Oglala Sioux Native American tribal entity out of $60 million.
With a two-vote majority in the House, Republicans have been openly musing to members of the press about their inability to pass an impeachment resolution.
On Friday, a lawyer for the White House sent a letter to Speaker Mike Johnson telling him that the impeachment inquiry is over. See https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/mar/15/biden-impeachment-mike-johnson-white-house-letter
This was a primary. BFD.
The ones behind him have committed treason and sedition. #notBackingDown.
If Trumps wins in November. If, and that is a big if. And, if the Democrats swear in 50 Senators with Kamala still VP the first week of January 2025. And if the Democrats take the majority in the US House. Well, then Trump will never be sworn in. Biden will still be President for nearly 2 weeks after the new House and Senate are sworn in, Kamala VP. Then, the Dems, with a majority in both houses of Congress will proceed to invoke the 14th Amendment on the insurrectionist. End of story. We will then be done with Trump. So, the Republicans had better have the majority in either the Senate or the House come the second week of January. A tie in the Senate does them no good what so ever if the Dems take the House, as Kamala will still be the tie breaker.
Thoughts for today,
Did Sen. Schumer say what he did about Netanyahu having lost his way because Biden asked him to? Can’t call Schumer anti-semitic. Smart move on Biden’s part? Schumer knows what happens to him if Trump wins…
Russia, China, N.Korea,
1. Do they have a border crisis or immigration problem? Nope
2) Do they have a problem telling the difference between a man and woman, or knowing which bathroom to use? No
3) Do they not have adequate, affordable, healthcare for their people? Yep
4) Do they have an illegal drug problem? Nope
5) Have they been obsessed with abortion for decades with no solution? Nope
6) Do they have a serious crime problem? Nope
7) Does a court case take years and cost millions? Nope
8) Does it take decades to impose a death sentence? Nope
9) Are their people sick and obese? Nope
10) Are their young people in debt for decades because they wanted a higher education? Nope
11) Is the above the reason “they” want Tic Tok to be owned by one of “them”? One of “their” own who will make sure we stay divided and keep sinking.
12) And just who are “they”?
13) Not saying Russia, China, N. Korea, are perfect but any means. But all John and Jane Doe really know about those countries is what “they” allow our media to tell us. Basically the same deal inside those countries.
Treason and sedition it will be. 14th Amendment is not applicable. Showing us how you’ll overthrow the legitimate govt, we’ll react to that.
That was just those pesky Democrats crossing over and voting for DT 😉