The latest Quinnipiac Poll is bad news for Donald Trump (though hope for a miracle remains).
LIKELY VOTERS..........................................
WHITE......
COLLEGE DEG
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No
Clinton and Kaine 47% 7% 91% 38% 41% 52% 46% 35%
Trump and Pence 40 80 4 42 43 37 42 49
Johnson and Weld 7 6 3 11 10 4 7 9
Stein and Baraka 1 2 1 2 1 2 - 2
SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - 1 - 1 1 -
DK/NA 5 4 2 6 5 4 3 5
To win the popular vote, Donald Trump needs a few things to happen. First, ex-Governor Gary Johnson is pulling votes two to one from Donald Trump. 6% of Republicans, 3% of Democrats and 11% of Independents say they are voting for Governor Johnson. Trump needs to win these votes back. Trump is polling 4 points ahead of Hillary Clinton with Independents, so he should start there. As Secretary Clinton gets closer and closer to 50%, 3rd party votes are becoming that much more of a problem for Donald Trump.
Those who want to make the argument that a vote for Johnson is really a vote for Hillary Clinton have just about all the data they need to make that argument right here. Those arguing that Gary Johnson is pulling more votes from Hillary Clinton, simply have no data to go on.
Furthermore, 4% of Republicans are still undecided. Trump needs to give them a reason to decide, tonight if possible, and to decide in favor of the Trump/Pence ticket.
Such a massive lead this close to the election could indicate that Hillary Clinton is about to walk away with a landslide victory and mandate to govern for the next four years. These numbers also indicate a likelihood that close Congressional races will go to the Democrats and that the Republicans will lose the Senate.
This could be devistating for Republican candidates Mike Wade and Tom Garrett. If you live in the 4th or 5th districts, not only must you go and vote (regardless how you vote for president), but you must make sure everyone you know goes and votes for Wade and Garrett. This is a serious situation where good candidates could lose close races because of the top of the ticket. Don’t let that happen.
2. If the only candidates were Hillary Clinton and Tim Kaine the Democrats and Donald Trump and Mike Pence the Republicans, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Clinton and Kaine or Trump and Pence?
LIKELY VOTERS.......................................... WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Clinton and Kaine 50% 10% 93% 41% 44% 55% 49% 39% Trump and Pence 44 86 4 49 48 40 46 55 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - 1 - 1 1 - DK/NA 6 4 3 8 8 4 4 6
Now, if you remove the third parties, things don’t get better for Donald Trump. Trump gains 4% and Clinton gains 3%, primarily because you still have 4% of Republicans who can’t make up their minds whether or not they are capable of voting for Trump in November. Also, it is important to remember that 3 in 5 potential third party voters will stay home on election day. This is primarily because people answering in favor of Johnson and Stein are doing so because they are angry with the Republican and Democrat party. If Johnson is polling at 8% on November 8th, there is a good chance he’ll only get 3% of the vote.
At first glance, this poll would make you believe that Republicans are more enthusiastic to go to the polls than Democrats. 56% of Republicans say they are more motivated to vote this year, to 52% of Democrats. However, 21% of Republicans (1 in 5) say they are less likely to vote this year, to just 14% of Democrats.
This is disturbing. If any portion of these 1 and 5 Republicans, many of whom view Donald Trump as the lesser of two evils, decide not to vote, then this election is going to be called by 8pm on CNN and 8:15pm on FOX.
49% of Americans believe that Hillary Clinton is unfit to be President of the United States. Which would be great for Republicans, except that 58% of Americans believe that Donald Trump is unfit to be President. Never before have Americans despised their choices as much as they do in 2016. Turnout could be low. However, record numbers of people have registered to vote, indicating that turnout should be high. If this is the case, it clearly favors Donald Trump.
9. As you may know, multiple women have recently said that Donald Trump groped or made inappropriate sexual advances towards them without their consent. Trump has denied these allegations, calling them lies. Do you believe that Donald Trump committed these actions, or not?
LIKELY VOTERS.......................................... WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Yes 51% 22% 84% 45% 44% 56% 50% 45% No 31 56 5 34 37 26 31 37 DK/NA 19 22 11 21 19 18 19 18
22% of Republicans believe that Donald Trump is a sexual deviant. This, if true, is inescapably damaging. These Republicans will be far less likely to make their way to the poll to vote for Donald Trump.
10. In deciding your vote for president, are the allegations that Donald Trump groped or made inappropriate sexual advances towards women a deal breaker, a big deal but not a deal breaker, or not a big deal?
LIKELY VOTERS..........................................
WHITE......
COLLEGE DEG
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No
Deal breaker 28% 8% 52% 22% 22% 34% 30% 23%
Big deal/Nt deal br. 34 32 34 39 35 34 34 33
Not a big deal 33 59 10 33 39 28 33 42
DK/NA 4 1 4 6 4 4 3 3
I lied. It’s over. The only way for Donald Trump to win now, is for a series of stories to come out about Secretary Clinton that make Democrats less likely to vote for her. Ironically, she’d probably have to shoot someone in Times Square… even then… ? Those who deny the polls are doomed to repeat them. Can polls be wrong? Yes. Can polls be wrong 100% of the time? No. The polls aren’t wrong. Donald Trump is in trouble. Republicans need to commit 100% of their energy to getting out the vote. If they do, there is still hope. Also, there is still hope that one of you, dear readers, is going to mail me a check for 50 million dollars. Thank you in advance.
