Primary voters are particularly motivated by ideology and emotion – not electability or results
Nikki Haley, the former South Carolina Governor and UN Ambassador, was trounced in her own state’s primary by Donald Trump and again in Michigan Tuesday. Trump is pretty much assured the Republican nomination for president and he may have a very good chance to win if the Green Party, now on the ballot in 19 states, including pivotal Michigan, Wisconsin and Arizona, pulls enough leftist votes from President Joe Biden to deprive the feeble-minded Democrat of an electoral majority due to the Democrats’ support for Israel.
I feel bad for Haley. Although conservative media stereotyped her as a “George Bush/Establishment Republican,” I think she would have had great crossover appeal, especially to minority voters and women. I’m one of those conservative Republicans who will support a pragmatic, solutions-oriented candidate who can reach across the aisle and form coalitions, as needed. I plan to vote for her in the March 5 Virginia primary, and attend her rally in Tysons tonight.
But she didn’t play her cards well, especially in a primary featuring a former President who captures a majority of the GOP base.
Haley made the same mistake other Republican candidates make, in trying to portray themselves as pragmatists and urge voters to think about the consequences of electing the “other guy.” The negatives on Trump are sky high – notably, the criminal and civil trials he faces, his demeanor and highly negative regard among swing voters.
But GOP primary voters did not buy the “electability” argument Haley made, noting she was way ahead of Biden in head-to-head polls. Instead, primary voters looked away from Trump’s controversies and decided he was the better choice because the economy and the world picture were so great under his administration (at least before COVID came along in spring 2020)
Haley tried to make a big do about excessive spending, but didn’t provide much for the anti-abortion, pro-guns crowd, who vote in primaries. In other words, she didn’t “out conservative” Trump at all.
Candidates facing primaries, whether Democrat or Republican, have to play to the extremes. Democrat primary voters are ejecting establishment incumbents for Socialists as Republicans eject establishment incumbents for Trump populists.
In my recent campaign for State Senate in very blue Fairfax County, I was facing an uphill battle in a district where Glenn Youngkin lost by 30 points – facing a Leftist Democrat, Saddam Salim, who upended incumbent moderate Sen. Chap Petersen in the June primary.
However, I had a choice to make in how to present myself to the voters. I most definitely played up my conservative bona fides to GOP voters, but I needed to appeal to swing voters and some soft Democrats.
So, I emphasized myself as a “different kind of Republican — thoughtful and insightful on issues, and pragmatic. Along with my fellow GOP candidates, we avoided the abortion and gun issues that Democrats were using to define us and focused on repealing the car tax, lowering excessive highway tolls, education quality (i.e. parents’ rights) and high energy costs due to the Democrats’ adopted Clean Economy Act.
Well, it didn’t work. I wound up getting only about 31.8 percent of the vote, despite raising and spending some $80,000, but my goal was to divert funds from Democrat coffers to my opponent and help the GOP win the State Senate. I did my part, the Governor’s PAC and House and Senate caucus did not. And, even if I managed to get all 26,000 votes Glenn Youngkin got in the district in 2021, Salim still would have won handily.
The worst part of the Nov. 7 evening was not me losing, because that was expected, but some very fine school board candidates who were on the GOP sample ballot were wiped out, despite pledging to roll back horrible policies that were plaguing Fairfax Schools.
One candidate even used purple for her theme colors to connote bipartisanship. It didn’t matter. Democrat voters came to the polls with blood in their mouths over Trump, abortion and general hatred toward Republicans, and circled every Democrat on the ballot – as if they were indiscriminately filling out a lottery ticket. So much for liberals thinking they are smarter than us.
Fairfax County even elected a Clerk of Court who had only moved into the County a year before over Gerarda Cullipher, who had been the deputy clerk for several years. She lost about two to 1 county wide. The Democrat onslaught was also on full display in Prince William and somewhat in Loudoun.
The moral of the story is this – Republicans who try to act nice, thoughtful and appeal to the head versus the heart don’t win. And in the final analysis, this is what has doomed Nikki Haley.
Today’s tribal politics rewards candidates who play to emotion – mainly fear and doubt. The fear campaign the Democrats waged over abortion in Virginia, thus diverting attention from bad policies that were hitting Virginians in the wallet, is one example of how fearmongering works.
Yes, Trump could win election again, especially with concerns with Biden’s age and ability, and third parties drawing votes from Biden, especially given the 13% who voted “uncommitted” against Biden in the Michigan Democrat primary Tuesday night.
But Haley is garnering about 40% of Republican voters against Trump in these primaries and I wonder if these Republicans will vote for him in November, or Biden or third parties. This seems to be a bigger problem for Republicans.
Third parties could have real influence on this presidential election, but not the House and Senate elections where the Greens, Libertarians, etc., do not field many candidates. Thus, leftist Democrats who vote against Biden will still vote for Democrat House and Senate candidates. This means Trump may win , but not have a GOP Congress to back him up. So, the myth that he can restore the prosperity that existed for the first three years of his presidency is just that – but myth and emotion sell, not reason, Nikki.
There are a lot of studies on the importance of emotion in how people vote – visit these sites to learn more.
https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/1532673X221106432
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s44202-022-00057-z
2 comments
Yea!
“Crossover appeal”
Is that raising the age for SS while handing it out to the 7 out of 10 illegals that don’t work for Republicans?
Remember Romney campaigning in SWVA?
😂
Hey Ken, little buddy, have you considered crying about it?