Republicans in Virginia falling short on voter registration

For some time now, I have been concerned that Trump and RNC efforts have not been heavily focused on Northern Virginia, specifically , Loudoun and Prince William counties.

It would seem by the locations of his rallies and placement of staff that  the Trump campaign’s strategy in Virginia has been focused in bringing out the downstate vote, where there are, indeed, more conservative voters.

In the March 1 primary, Trump swept downstate, but  lost badly to Sen. Marco Rubio in Loudoun, Prince William, and also Fairfax and Arlington and Alexandria.  This may have set the tone for the fall strategy; a feeling “we just cannot compete in Northern Virginia.”

In fact, when Trump created a leadership team of former and current elected Republican officials Oct. 16 none represented Loudoun or Prince William counties.

However, Republicans running statewide generally do not win without carrying Loudoun and Prince William counties and getting between 43-45% of the vote in Fairfax County.

Collectively, the three counties comprise more than 1.2 million registered voters.    Alexandria, Arlington and Fairfax city are pretty much lost to Republicans in most races.

We can argue all day long whether Trump’s recent spike in the polls, nationwide, can overcome what is viewed by state-based polls as a drubbing by Hillary Clinton in Virginia.  The recent Washington Post-Schar School poll showing Hillary ahead 6 points in Virginia, also shows she is

…strongest in Northern Virginia and the heavily Democratic communities outside Washington, where she leads by 43 points in the inner suburbs, wider than President Obama’s 26-point advantage four years ago. Clinton holds a narrow seven-point edge in the band of exurbs that includes Loudoun and Fauquier counties, a region where Obama and Romney ran nearly evenly four years ago.”

But if a campaign’s strategy is to beef up the downstate Virginia vote, you would think there would be a concerted effort to register people to vote in places such as Coal Country and the Shenandoah Valley, which gave Trump his win in the primary.

In December 2015, I showed a Trump campaign staffer some data I compiled indicating that in these “Trump Country” counties had as many as 30 percent of adult voters who were not even registered to vote.

I did a crossmatch from census data (2010) indicating the number of person 18 and over with those actually registered, according to the State Board of Elections, to guesstimate the number of unregistered voters.

For example, as of December 2015, my analysis shows that Tazewell County had 32% of voters unregistered.  Lee County, 30% and Bedford County 20%.  I encouraged the Trump campaign to do some registration.

But according to voter registration data from the State Board of Elections, the Democratic congressional districts, the 3^rd, 8^th and the 11^th, have more registered voters than the “Trump country” districts.

This table compares the status of active registered voters as of January 2016 with end of September totals from the SBE.  Registration ended Oct. 17.

As you can see, registration increases in the 9th were only up 2.84 percent, and 0.82% in the 7th and 3.79% in the 6th.

The 1st and 10th districts had large registration increases, but I believe that is because Loudoun County is entirely in the 10th District and has many new voters. The 1st contains much of Prince William County. With its large Latino population, it would seem the registration increases are probably Democrat-leaning voters.
Getting voters registered and to the polls was the hallmark of Obama’s ability to take Virginia out of the Red column in 2012 and in 2008, which was the first time the Commonwealth was carried by a Democrat since Lyndon Johnson’s landslide in 1964. Obama’s teams focused primarily on registering Latino, African American and young voters.

This is how the Washington Post reported on the Virginia voter registration effort after Mitt Romney’s defeat in 2012:

Obama’s state director, Lise Clavel, said the campaign registered nearly 140,000 new voters in Virginia this cycle — mostly from demographic groups that favor Democrats, including 66,000 new black voters and 35,000 Latinos. Most of the new voters were both women and younger than 35.

The campaign then focused on turning voters out — particularly those with spottier voting histories. They weren’t just urged to vote; they were called, visited and asked to recite where and when they’d vote and how they’d get there.

Obama’s tactical generals said there was a qualitative difference in the kinds of contact the two campaigns made: Obama focused on personal appeals from friends or neighbors, whereas Romney’s contact count included mailings and robo-calls, Obama officials said.

This table shows how narrowly McCain and Romney lost in Virginia:

This year, operatives running the “Trump Team Virginia” effort said they would register 60,000 new voters. And maybe they have, but it would seem from this data that the bulk of new registrations are in Democrat districts.

In fairness, it’s much easier for Democrats and liberal groups to register “their voters” who by and large live in more-densely populated areas.

To register people in rural Virginia requires an incredible about of road work to drive to sparsely populated areas – unless one got permission to do this at public libraries and churches. It also is an effort that cannot be left to volunteers, but skilled people with leadership skills and a knack for details. Trump hired such people to get him on the Virginia primary ballot – getting some 16,000 signatures when he needed only 5,000.

But according to published reports, the RNC was supposed to put more paid staff in Virginia than what we have actually seen.

This article in the Roanoke Times documents that RNC’s efforts in Virginia began in July 2015 – just after Trump announced. In the spring, I was told that the RNC would invest some $300,000 to hire about 100 “neighborhood captains” to work full time through the election to organize their turf. Voter registration was part of the effort.

In June, at a meeting outside Richmond of delegates and alternates to the Republican National Convention, we were told it would be about 143 – outdoing Romney’s field team in 2012.

But it is quite evident that neither the Trump campaign nor the RNC/RPV ever came up with such staffing in Virginia. This was the stated reason former Trump state chairman Corey Stewart participated in a protest against the RNC in DC and was fired.

As of this writing, there are only about 70 paid staff in Virginia.
The fact some 211,000 new people have registered to vote does not mean all will vote and that all will vote for Hillary Clinton. However, given where these voters reside and the demographics, it is evident the Democrats have a larger pool of voters to tap into for Nov. 8.

I am sure some readers are thinking this – that MOST of these 211,000 newly registered voters be convicted felons pardoned by Gov. Terry McAuliffe or dead people, like the few that a Democrat activist registered in Charlottesville. Some will suggest a large number are illegal aliens, too.

Some Trumpsters will be saying the system is rigged. I can foresee Trump enthusiasts, who are unregistered, coming to the polls Nov. 8 to vote and being told they cannot. I would hope Trumpsters will not will cry foul that the “system is rigged” or there is voter fraud.

However, I firmly believe the data I have provided shows the Democrats have outgunned us again in voter registration in Virginia.

While Republicans have withstood heavy fire from the media and liberal groups to defend voting integrity by requiring photo IDs at the polls, preventing wholesale restoration of voting rights to ex-felons and illegal aliens in violation of the law, and being outspoken on efforts to get “the dead” to vote. But we do very little to register conservative voters and get them to the polls, at least in Virginia.

While arduous and expensive, if Republicans wish to win back the Governor’s mansion, Lt. Governor’s office and Office of the Attorney General next year, we must make a more-concerted effort to register conservative voters in this state and get them to vote. Having a winning ticket like the “McBollinelli” slate in 2009 (McDonnell, Bolling, Cuccinelli) is critical, too.

We also must focus the resources on winning Loudoun and Prince William and narrow the Democratic advantage in Fairfax County. The good news is the Trump appears to have rebounded in the polls, so we might be able to pull out a win despite shortcomings on voter registration.

But that doesn’t mean we’re done. Let’s start now for 2017, before it’s too late.