Despite the mainstream media’s beating on Trump over the last few weeks, he is holding his own in two key swing states and down in only one according to the latest Quinnipiac poll. In Ohio the candidates are tied with each receiving 40% of the vote. In Pennsylvania Clinton is ahead by only one point, 42% to 41%. Florida is the only bad news, there Trump is down by 8%, with 47% for Clinton to Trump’s 39%. Checking party affiliation in Florida’s sample it is almost even between party identification:
PARTY IDENTIFICATION: Republican 31%, Democrat 33, Independent 30, Other/DK/NA 6
However, that was not true in Ohio where they over sampled Democrats by 7:
PARTY IDENTIFICATION: Republican 27%, Democrat 34, Independent 33, Other/DK/NA 7
Had the sample been equal between Republicans and Democrats Trump would be leading in Ohio.
In Pennsylvania Democrats were over sampled by 4%:
PARTY IDENTIFICATION: Republican 33%, Democrat 37, Independent 26, Other/DK/NA 4
In the three polls Trump’s ‘strongly unfavorable’ ratings were higher than Hillary’s, but not by much, except in Florida where Hillary lead 52% to Trump’s 45%. In the other two states the ‘strongly unfavorable’ ratings were within a point or two of each other. Voters don’t much like either one of the candidates.
With Gary Johnson and Jill Stein in the race, Hillary wins Florida by 6%, 42% to 36%. She wins Ohio by only 2%, 38% to 36% and she wins Pennsylvania by 3%, 39% to 36%. Johnson polled at 7% in Florida, 8% in Ohio, and 9% in Pennsylvania.
The poll asked many other questions of voters and those can be seen here.
In the latest CNN poll Clinton leads 47% to 42% nationally but 22% say they could change their minds between now and November. With Johnson and Stein in the race, Clinton holds 42%, Trump 38%, Johnson 9% and Stein 7%.
In party support 51% of Republican leaning voters support Trump while 55% of Democrat leaning voters support Hillary.
Comparing the polls from a month ago, Clinton is clearly declining in some key areas:
Clinton is behind Trump on the two key issues, the economy and terrorism.
Full results of the CNN poll here.
