The GOP Gillespie juggernaut just got rocket fuel.
Virginia high-tech entrepreneur and former Republican candidate for Lt. Governor Pete Snyder said today he’s ruled out a run for governor in 2017. But that’s not all.
Snyder says he’ll endorse current GOP front-runner and former 2014 U.S. Senate candidate Ed Gillespie for the governor’s nomination, which will be decided in an open June 2017 primary.
Sources close to Gillespie say the one-time Republican Party of Virginia finance chairman, now a Northern Virginia venture capitalist and angel investor will play a prominent role in the Gillespie campaign. “It’s like getting two candidates for the price of one,” a Gillespie operative familiar with the campaign who requested anonymity to talk freely, said.
Gillespie Game Changer?
Snyder’s endorsement and apparent high profile role in the campaign could be a game changer for Gillespie. Snyder, who many expected to run for governor himself in 2017, could bring much needed grassroots enthusiasm to a candidate who is long on money and political endorsements and short on ardor.
The main boon for Gillespie is the fact he does not have to deal with Snyder in a primary. A Snyder gubernatorial bid would have thrown the race wide open, making it a five way dogfight.
The other announced GOP candidates include State Sen. Frank Wagner (Virginia Beach), Prince William Chairman of Supervisors and Virginia Trump campaign chairman Corey Stewart and U.S. House Rep. Rob Wittman (VA-1).
Recent Polls Show Gillespie Ahead
Two recent public opinion surveys show Gillespie, who has a distinct money advantage over his challengers to date, ahead in the race. But early polls like these are often a direct reflection of name recognition. There is a long way to go.
A poll conducted by Public Opinion Strategies of 800 likely Republican primary voters from September 18-21 found that Gillespie enjoys an 87 percent name recognition, established during his competitive race for U.S. Senate against incumbent Mark Warner (VA-D) in 2014.
The poll has Gillespie leading the field with 38 percent of the vote followed by Wittman at 12 percent, Stewart at 5 percent and Wagner at 4 percent.
Another poll, released last week from Mary Washington University, showed Gillespie leading his rivals with 19 percent. But in this poll Wagner was in second place at 11 percent, followed by Wittman at 8 percent and Stewart at 6 percent. The UMW survey found that 40 percent of Republicans were undecided and 12 percent wanted another candidate.
Analysis
While I have my share of personality differences with Gillespie and some of his key campaign staff, there are little actual policy differences between Snyder and Gillespie. The Snyder endorsement – and apparent hands on campaign involvement — now makes Gillespie a prohibitive favorite to win the GOP governor’s nomination.
However the chalk doesn’t always win. See Jeb Bush 2016.
Gillespie’s support might be a mile wide and an inch deep.
Wagner’s surprise 11 percent polling in the UMW poll should be a warning sign for Gillespie. Wagner has no real name I.D statewide and his district is smaller than Wittman’s. It may reveal restlessness among GOP voters. Personality wise, Wagner is the antithesis of Gillespie. If he digs into his NOVA vote base, the race will tighten.
I’ve learned three things covering Frank Wagner over the years. One: never count him out. Two: never underestimate him. Three: see one and two.
Stewart is gaining statewide exposure as Trump campaign chair in Virginia as he crisscrosses the commonwealth as Trump’s top surrogate. A Trump win in Virginia undoubtedly propels his ’17 bid.
Wittman is the enigma. He has the capacity to emerge as Gillespie’s chief rival, and if he raises enough money to be competitive – which he will – he could capture the nomination with 30 percent of the primary vote. His conservative bonafides are solid, and he is scary smart. Besides, who doesn’t genuinely like Rob Wittman? If you find someone, let me know.
The winner will square off with likely Democratic nominee Lt. Governor Ralph Northam, who is the morning line favorite to succeed current chief executive Terry McAuliffe.
Morning Line Odds – 2017 GOP Governor nomination
Gillespie 2:5
Wittman 3:1
Stewart 9:2
Wagner 5:1
Morning Line Odds – 2017 GOP Governor nomination
Ralph Northam (D) – 4 over GOP nominee
Note: Lt. Governor and Attorney General Odds coming tomorrow!
