According to a recent poll by NBC News/Wall Street Journal, Ted Cruz inches ahead of Trump by 28% to 26%. Marco Rubio is at 17%, John Kasich at 11%, Ben Carson at 10% and Jeb Bush at 4%.
The poll was conducted after the New Hampshire primary and after the South Carolina debate where Trump’s behavior and messages were a new low even for him.
If the race narrows to two Republican candidates, Cruz beats Trump by 56% to 40%. If the candidates were to be Rubio and Trump, Rubio wins 57% to 41%. Only 56% of Republicans now say they could envision themselves supporting Trump while 70% could support Rubio and 65% could support Cruz.
This poll also showed that 81% of Republicans opposed the Senate confirmation of any candidate for the Supreme Court nominated by President Obama.
More on the poll here.
Why would anyone trust a poll from NBC? They are desperate. They want an establishment candidate. Rubio is the only choice they have. If Rubio is the candidate, i hope Trump goes third party. I will not vote for an establishment candidate period.
Not quite so fast, I know it is so frustrating when people don’t report the truth, and there is so much fraud mixed in w/the dirty politics.
That is actually funny… truth and Conservative Tree House do not belong in the same sentence.
Why? Because they love Trump? The guy over there produces documents and links to back his stories, actually does a little research, he does more than just blather opinion. But when you are blinded w/hate for Trump I can see why you would have that opinion.
I’m surprised that headline didn’t say either:
“Cruz Trumps Trump”
“Republicans Prefer Cruz Control”
I do not believe this for one minute
This is Bill McInturff and his merry gathering of focus group pranksters at Public Opinion Strategies over in Alexandria, Virginia I believe. This team are the practitioners of what they call “combat message development,” not simply monitoring public opinion (like the science part you know), but developing messages to defend and promote client interests in this case the Wall Street Journal I assume. Get the drift here? If you want to put your grain of salt in this go right ahead but I’d be careful to invest two grains. I’ll be waiting to hear 3 or 4 further confirmations on this finding but my bet would be post SC primary this nationwide lead will somehow mysteriously fade away. I have actually been rather surprised on the overall lack of chum spread on the waters this cycle in SC as they have a real history in that area regarding presidential primaries. It’s all been rather strangely quiet and sedate.
“It’s all been rather strangely quiet and subdued compared to past recent years”
When you have the bombastic Trump declaring everyone to be liars and nasty people, it is kind of hard to get worse than that. Nevertheless I think there has definitely been some shenanigans.
As for this poll, it is not a SC poll, but a National poll, and it is the first poll that has been taken completely after the death of Scalia and Trump’s disastrous debate performance. Also, the NBC/WSJ poll has been done about once a month, and the last poll taken in early January showed Trump 33, Cruz 20. So the shift, given Cruz’ win in Iowa and relative strong showing in NH, is actually quite reasonable.
I have never believed the polls that show Trump running away with everything, and word is that internal polling for the other candidates shows a much tighter race. I think the debate performance showed the other candidates that taking the fight to Trump causes him to self destruct, and I think you will see Trump getting hit more and more often.
We will see regarding this poll (by the way I’m quite aware it is a national sampling) post SC and if others confirm these results but as I recall this isn’t the first stake in the ground regarding Trump’s future demise that has required unceremonious removal. I have no great love for Trump but rabid partisanship often hinders critical thinking while not particularly appealing either and this is very far from the worst campaign I have seen in my lifetime. We are close to working this through and post super Tuesday hopefully will place the focus on the likely nominee and removing the progressives from the executive branch. As for your heartburn if Trump is that nominee you will have to deal with that yourself but I wouldn’t place it outside the realm of likely possibility and might recommend you consider thinking on how to deal with it productively.
Not saying this is the stake in his candidacy. It is a chink in the armor of the “inevitability” campaign he is running. The first chink was when he lost Iowa. The second was when he began to melt down, beginning with his “Cruz cheated” rants, culminating with his SC debate melt down. This national poll is another chink in the armor.
Many candidates have been running different kinds of campaigns, none of which usually meet with success. Rand Paul ran the “Iowa campaign,” betting everything on doing well in Iowa. Christie and Kasich ran the, “New Hampshire campaign,” where they hope for a big showing in NH, hoping it will bounce them into prominence. It can keep a campaign going for a little while, but it fades too fast and never lasts.
Rubio is running the “momentum campaign,” hoping to spin 3rd and 5th place finishes into showing he is “starting to catch on.” This will play out on Saturday. If he cannot finish higher than 3rd in a state where every major Republican figure is endorsing him, he is done. He won’t drop out, but he will effectively be done.
Trump is running the “inevitable” campaign. Make a big splash, get yourself to the front of the polls, then act like you are the nominee and hope for bandwagon jumpers who want to be on the winning team to come along for the ride. This campaign can work pretty well if you can get to the front and stay there. The problems come if you start getting chinks in the armor. Get too many and the wheels come off. Just ask Hillary Clinton.
Cruz is playing the long game. He has raised a lot of money, and is investing in a data driven, ground game operation. He has the strength to continue on past Super Tuesday no matter what happens in SC. If he finishes a strong second, or even first, he can make a strong case to be crowned the “anti-trump” candidate. As more of the other candidates drop out, the anti-trump vote solidifies around one person, and Trump is no longer able to win primaries, and is not the nominee.
Well you have your opinion and assumed analysis, I believe it to be an incorrect one except regarding Rubio. For Cruz to over take Trump in delegate count prior to the convention appears to me to be a major stretch in hopeful thinking and his only sweet spot will be the southern primaries (though I have my doubts he will carry Texas or best case split with Trump) then he goes to the “desert” in the Midwest and Central state primaries where Trump will be strong and in control, Trump will likely carry Ohio and Florida and the majority of the Northern, Midwest (which will play a major role this year in my opinion) and Central states. As for the West, even if you call it a tossup it’s not going to garner the push to the nomination for Cruz.
I looked at the delegate path in many scenarios and I have not yet found one that guarantees Cruz a path to the nomination as things stand today. Could I be wrong, of course, but other then predicting a complete and total collapse in the Trump campaign (hasn’t happened yet and unlikely to in the future). I don’t put much stock in the cash horde and the process mechanism theories this cycle that you apparently do, they certainly haven’t worked for Jeb Bush and I don’t think they will be the critical path for Cruz either.
Cruz’s problem is messaging vs Trump. He can’t effectively counter Trump by moving to the center right without disillusioning the red meat hard core right wing followers that are his main stay. Meanwhile Trump has surprisingly taken a not insignificant share of Cruz’s evangelical vote (I’d love to have someone explain that one to me) and Trump has a pretty clear open field on the moderate and independent voter base that leans Republican plus the vast majority of the ethnic and black vote that the RNC keeps saying they desire and that Trump is actually collecting a portion of.
Cruz’s support doesn’t look anything like the Reagan phenomena to me, that I saw up close and personal in the 80’s, with it’s heavy emphasis on working and middle class Americans and cross over blue collar Democrats, it in fact looks much more like that of former Senator Barry Goldwater. In my opinion Cruz has three plays with his final delegate count, first position himself for the VP slot though I’m doubtful on this one, second, look to a cabinet position commitment with national exposure, doubtful on this one as well, finally, leverage his delegates to extract committed policy positions out of Trump to satisfy his base constituency and go back to the Senate to gain some much needed experience and prepare for a future run. The interesting thing about politics is it is never a long wait to determine who is correct and who is wrong.
Trump is leading Cruz by a whopping 6 delegates at this point. Trump has a ceiling at about 35%. Four out of ten SC Republicans say there is no way they will ever vote for Trump, so your theory that Rubio or Bush, or Carson voters will go to him doesn’t hold water. Trump is nobody’s second choice for the nomination.
Cruz used his ground game to turn a 4 point polling deficit in Iowa into a 4 point victory. Cruz came in 3rd in NH without even trying, beating out Bush, Rubio, and Christie who all worked their tails off there. Now we will see how his ground game does not only against Trump’s poll numbers, but against Rubio’s advantage with all the SC endorsements. If Cruz can manage a strong 2nd place finish, or even take a close win in SC, he will have solidified his place as the one candidate who can beat Trump and take the nomination.
Cruz does not need to move to the Center Right in messaging. Between Trump and Cruz, Trump is the one to the left. Cruz simply needs to continue to contrast his record and positions against Trump’s liberal positions (which come from his own mouth), then let Trump continue to self destruct. Trump was given a description of Socialist Bernie Sanders last night by MSNBC, and he said, “you are describing Donald Trump.” That speaks volumes if you ask me.
Your analysis of the Midwest is also suspect. Most of those states haven’t done a poll in months, and even when they did Trump was not placing first in most of them. Let’s see some poll numbers after SC or Super Tuesday.
The only thing keeping Trump on top is the wide field of candidates. As the field narrows, Trump’s advantage narrows. If Cruz finishes second of first in SC, the only thing left to decide will be whether the establishment candidates stay in the race just to prevent Cruz from getting the nomination. The establishment prefers Trump to Cruz. They know Trump is just blowing smoke on the campaign trail and will work with them.
I’m not looking back but forward and Iowa has been and will continue to be largely meaningless. True, polling has been thin out of outlying primaries but not nonexistent. I don’t buy that the thinning of the so called “establishment” candidates is going to be some boon for Cruz. Why? If he gathered all this existing support (which is foolish to assume, as why would a Bush, Kasich or Rubio supporter be so motivated to move over to the clear right wing candidate Cruz rather then Trump) but that aside if Cruz did gather all this support he would still be trailing in the polls. This argument doesn’t appear very logical to me and as I said above Cruz has a messaging box problem that places some constraints on him. If he is not delegate break even or very, very close post Super Tuesday Cruz is done. I just don’t see the likelihood of that happening.
RCP averages of SC:
Trump – 33.5
Cruz – 17.5
Rubio – 16.4
Bush – 10.4
Kasich – 9.6
Cruz + Rubio + Bush + Kasich = 53.9, and that doesn’t even count Carson’s 6.8%. Cruz + Rubio alone top Trump.
This race is quickly moving away from an “establishment lane vs. conservative lane” race to a “who has the best chance to beat Trump and win the White House” race. It took awhile for folks on the left and right to get here, but it looks like we are finally here. Trump does nothing to attract supporters of other candidate to his cause. As other candidates have dropped out, their support goes to everyone else BUT Trump.
Kasich is Dead Man Walking. Carson is finished. Bush says he will drop out after SC if he doesn’t finish at least third. Rubio needs to finish at least second in SC to make any kind of realistic claim to be the anti-Trump candidate. If Rubio can’t finish ahead of Cruz in SC where he has everything going for him, how can he claim he will beat him in any other state?
When Kasich, Bush, Rubio, and Carson are out, their supporters are going to look at the remaining candidates (Trump and Cruz), and vote for Cruz. Some of them will hold their nose when they do it, but they will do it.
Saturday will tell. If Rubio jumps into second, things get more interesting, but I think Cruz gets either 1st or a close 2nd. Then the fun begins.
There is no polling or facts to back up your conclusion that any aggregate polling support will roll in-toto to Cruz, nothing, zero, zilch. A theory and a rather shaky one as I mentioned above. I’m not saying he sees no upside but the summation of all current distributed support to Cruz just doesn’t pass the common sense criteria. You can add cats to the dog pile and then claim more dogs, I would look for something a little more realistic. I’m not saying you can’t find one, because I couldn’t, but this argument isn’t it.
You said, “if Cruz did gather all this support he would still be trailing in the polls” That is clearly not the case.
The polling data I would use to support my assertion that Rubio, Kasich, and Bush voters would go to Cruz would be the Trump ceiling. Trump has been polling between 28% and 35% for months, back when there were 16 candidates in the race. As candidate after candidate has dropped out, he still hasn’t broken through that 35% ceiling. All of the supporters from the candidates that have dropped out are being absorbed by all the other campaigns except Trump.
I would also point to the figures that show there are more Republicans in SC that have said there is no way they can support Trump than actually say they will vote for him (40% “no way” vs. 33-35% support).
You can disagree with my assertions, and Trump can prove me wrong if he can show that he can bust through that 35% ceiling. Like I said before, we will see.
You shifted the premise of your argument from a national discussion to just the SC primary somewhere along the line! Cruz could outright win SC which he won’t and it will have little impact on the national trend lines from my position and what I though we discussing and what this article is about after all. SC wasn’t the point of the exchange I has having shame on me I guess for investing the time.
The results are the same. RCP national averages have Trump at 33.8, Cruz at 20 and Rubio at 16.3. I don’t need to go farther than Cruz + Rubio to top Trump. Trump is also the #1 candidate that Republicans refuse to support, but I don’t have time to look up the exact numbers.
Trump’s continued outrageous behavior has created huge negatives, not only in the general electorate, but also in the ranks of Republicans. Once Bush and Carson drop out, both Rubio and Cruz will rise. I don’t expect any of their support to go to the tantrum-prone Trump.
You mentioned the other day that Trump would nominate liberals to fill the vacancy left by Scalia… Trump said he would nominate Jeff Sessions. That would be the most ideal candidate possible.
Sessions is 69, so that would not be a smart nomination.
No. He has thrown out the names of three people he would appoint.
The first is his sister, Maryanne Trump Barry, who wrote a decision for the Third Circuit overturning a NJ law banning late-term abortion.
The second was former AL Attorney General Bill Pryor, who in 2003 backed a decision to remove AL Chief Justice Roy Moore for refusing to remove a monument of the 10 Commandments.
The third was Diane Sykes, who wrote an opinion striking down an Indiana law that would have defunded Planned Parenthood.
The sooner that conservative Trump supporters admit to themselves that Trump is a Democrat that has liberal beliefs, the sooner this is over with.
Yippee yippee! Trump is trashed.
“When you see a number this different, it means you might be right on top
of a shift in the campaign. What you don’t know yet is if the change is
going to take place or if it is a momentary ‘pause’ before the numbers
snap back into place,”
Guess you will have to wait until next week before you break out the champagne. No worries. It’s guaranteed he won’t be the nominee. Carl Sagan says so. “We got billions and billions of bucks circling the ad space Keepin the Promise.” Or maybe it was Rove or Koch who said it. No matter. Done deal.
The Reaganites are coming !!
we can only hope!
I hope that the knowledge that the the Republicans’ best hope to win the presidency is Rubio or Cruz will sink in for the Trump sycophants. But I am not optimistic. I had high hopes for Trump, but after the repeated demonstrations of his megalomania and utter lack of self control, I bailed.