2024 is without a doubt an extremely crucial year for our country with the Presidency, the Congress and the Senate all three on the line. The goal is to send Donald J. Trump back to the White House, keep control of the Congress (despite all the dysfunction and infighting with one another) and to gain back control of the Senate.
Today’s article is about my predicted outcomes for the U.S. Senate. 34 of the 100 Senate seats are up for grabs and 1 of them being a special election, so what seats will flip, what seats will remain and which party will have control of this sacred chamber of our nation’s legislative branch? Let’s find out shall we?
Arizona – (Toss Up) Senator Kyrsten Sinema, a Democrat turned Independent announced that she would not seek re-election. Senator Sinema was elected in 2018 with 50% of the vote flipping the seat from Red to Blue dealing defeat to then Senator Martha McSally. Representative Ruben Gallego is the presumptive Democratic nominee and the Republican nomination pending on the conclusion of the primary election to be held on July 30th 2024.
With that on top of the fraudulent activity that took place in 2020 and 2022, It is hard to tell if Arizona will have a fair election process this go round or not and with that I cannot say that the eventual Republican nominee will come out victorious or if Representative Gallego will keep the seat blue (NOTE: Despite going Independent, Senator Sinema continued to caucus with the Democrats) so since this specific race has so much uncertainty in the coming days and months, I am calling Arizona as a Toss Up.
California – (Remains Democratic) Senator Laphonza Butler was appointed in October 2023 by Governor Gavin Newsome to fill this seat left vacant by Senator Dianne Feinstein who passed away on September 29th 2023. Senator Butler has announced that she will not seek election for a full Senate term. The Democratic nominee is Representative Adam Schiff and the Republican nominee is baseball legend Steve Garvey who played in the MLB from 1969 to 1987.
Despite being a sports hero and having an impressive resume in baseball, history has proven that having celebrity status doesn’t necessarily guarantee one to win an election and Hershel Walker and Dr. Mehmet Oz are recent examples despite the fact that actor Arnold Schwartzeneggar, a Republican, served as the 38th Governor of California.
With that being said California, which is heavily Democrat controlled on both the state and federal level I believe will remain blue with Representative Schiff becoming the state’s next Senator.
Connecticut – (Remains Democratic) Senator Chris Murphy has announced that he is seeking re-election and will win a third term in November.
Delaware – (Remains Democratic) Senator Tom Carper has announced that he will not seek re-election. Representative Lisa Blunt Rochester will more than likely become the Democratic nominee and will win the election in November, keeping the seat in Democratic status.
Florida – (Remains Republican) Senator Rick Scott who won in 2018, narrowly defeating Senator Bill Nelson, flipping the seat from blue to red has announced that he will be seeking re-election. Scott will likely win the Republican nomination once more and the fact that Florida has been pretty much in Republican control in recent years, along with Governor Ron DeSantis and Senator Marco Rubio both winning re-election in their respective races by large margins in 2022. It’s safe to say the seat will remain red with Scott returning to the Senate chamber in January.
Hawaii – (Remains Democratic) Senator Maxie Hirono has announced that she will seek re-election and will win a third term in November.
Indiana – (Remains Republican) Senator Mike Braun has announced that he will not seek re-election instead running for Governor. Representative Jim Banks, the Republican nominee will win the election in November, keeping the seat in Republican status.
Maine – (Remains Independent) Senator Angus King has announced that he will seek re-election and will win a third term in November. (NOTE: Senator King is an Independent caucusing with the Democratic Party)
Maryland – (Toss Up) Senator Ben Cardin has announced that he will not seek re-election. While in most cases I would say that Maryland being a major Democrat controlled state that this seat would remain blue and Democratic nominee Angela Alsobrooks would win victorious, however being that former Governor Larry Hogan has won the Republican nomination and he gaining the respect of Independents and Democrats alike due to his Moderate, RINO and Never Trump approach during his tenure as Governor, makes things much more interesting in this race.
Which is why I am calling a toss up in this and mark my words this will be a race that will gain major attention.
Massachusetts – (Remains Democratic) Senator Elizabeth Warren has announced that she will seek re-election and will win a third term in November
Michigan – (Toss Up) Senator Debbie Stabenow has announced that she will not seek re-election. Being that Michigan has stayed in Democrat status in recent years you would think that this seat would likely remain Democratic, however this race could go either way especially with two major frontrunners vying for the Republican nomination to be determined in the August 6th 2024 Primary Election.
Former Representative Mike Rogers, the Conservative choice having the endorsement of former President Donald J. Trump and former Representative Justin Amash, a Moderate and Trump critic who identified as a Libertarian from 2020-2024.
It is my honest opinion that Amash is running for the Republican nomination due to the unlikeliness that he would win this seat as a third party candidate and in the event he wins the nomination and
the general election that he would switch back to the Libertarian Party after being sworn in.
Amash would indeed appeal to Libertarian, Independents and Moderate Democratic voters but even then with both chambers of Michigan’s State Legislator only in Democratic control narrowly we shouldn’t rule out Rogers either. This race will be very interesting and enough so to declare this in toss up status.
Minnesota – (Remains Democratic) Senator Amy Klobuchar has announced that she will seek re-election and will win a fourth term in November.
Mississippi – (Remains Republican) Senator Roger Wicker has announced that he will seek re-election and will win a third term in November.
Missouri – (Remains Republican) Senator Josh Hawley who defeated former Senator Claire McCaskill in 2018, flipping the seat
from blue to red has announced that he will seek re-election and will win a second term.
Montana – (Flips from Democratic to Republican) Senator Jon Tester has announced that he will seek re-election for a fourth term. Being a Republican state that Trump won both in 2016 and 2020 and the fact that all three of his previous elections were won only by narrow margins, I can see the eventual Republican nominee winning this election giving the GOP a much needed boost for possible control of the Senate.
Nebraska – (Both Remain Republican) Both seats are up this year. In the regular election Senator Deb Fischer has announced that she will seek re-election and will win a third term in November and in
the special election Senator Pete Ricketts who was appointed by Governor Jim Pillen to complete the term of former Senator Ben Sasse resigned to accept the position as President of the University of Florida has announced that he would seek election in this special election and will win a full term.
Nevada – (Toss Up) Senator Jacky Rosen has announced that she will seek re-election. As Nevada is mostly a Democratic state, the fact that in 2022 Governor Joe Lombardo flipped the Governor’s
seat from blue to red and that Senator Catherine Cortez Masto only won a second term by very narrow margins. This race will not easily guarantee a second term for Senator Rosen and this will be another interesting race to keep tabs on so with that I’m putting this race in toss up status.
New Jersey – (Remains Democratic) Senator Bob Menendez who has been caught up in federal bribery charges has declined to run for re-election as a Democrat but has stated he may run for a fourth term as an Independent and in the event that he were to do so despite being an incumbent, I don’t see him succeeding with all the legal baggage he is carrying. With that being said the eventual Democratic nominee will win a full term in November keeping the seat in Democratic status.
New Mexico – (Remains Democratic) Senator Martin Heinrich has announced that he will seek re-election and he will win a third term in November.
New York – (Remains Democratic) Senator Kirsten Gillibrand has announced that she will seek re-election and will win a third term in November.
North Dakota – (Remains Republican) Senator Kevin Cramer has announced that he will seek re-election and will win a second term in November.
Ohio – (Flips from Democratic to Republican) Senator Sherrod Brown has announced that he will seek re-election. while many would probably call this race a toss up however with the fact that Trump won the state of Ohio in both 2016 and 2020 and that the state is for the most part Republican, I’m willing to put all my chips in on Republican nominee Bernie Moreno in that he will deny
Senator Brown a fourth term by flipping the seat to Republican status with another boost for the GOP to gain control of the Senate.
Pennsylvania – (Remains Democratic) Senator Bob Casey Jr. has announced that he will seek re-election and he will win a fourth term in November.
Rhode Island – (Remains Democratic) Senator Sheldon Whitehouse has announced that he will seek re-election and will win a fourth term in November.
Tennessee – (Remains Republican) Senator Marsha Blackburn has announced that she will seek re-election and will win a second term in November.
Texas – (Remains Republican) Senator Ted Cruz has announced that he will seek re-election and will win a third term in November.
Utah – (Remains Republican) Senator Mitt Romney has announced that he will not seek re-election for a second term and the eventual Republican nominee will win a full term in November.
Vermont – (Remains Independent) Senator Bernie Sanders has announced that he will seek re-election and will win a fourth term in November. (NOTE: Senator Sanders is an Independent caucusing with the Democratic Party.)
Virginia – (Remains Democratic) Senator Tim Kaine has announced that he will seek re-election and will win a third term.
Washington – (Remains Democratic) Senator Maria Cantwell has announced that she will seek re-election and will win a fifth term.
West Virginia – (Flips from Democratic to Republican) Senator Joe Manchin has announced that he will not seek re-election. The fact that West Virginia is now considered to be a red state, that Senator Manchin was in earlier times considered a Conservative Democrat and the Republican nominee Governor Jim Justice switched from Democrat to Republican in his first term is more than enough evidence that this seat will flip from Democrat to Republican giving the GOP yet another boost in the battle for control of the Senate.
Wisconsin – (Toss Up) Senator Tammy Baldwin has announced that she will seek re-election for a third term. While Democratic Governor Tony Evers and Republican Senator Ron Johnson both won re-election in their respective races in 2022, this makes things a little more complicated which gives possible advantage to the eventual Republican nominee depending on their performance and appeal to the voters of Wisconsin which is why in good conscience I’m calling the status of this race a toss up.
Wyoming – (Remains Republican) Senator John Barrasso has announced that he will be seeking re-election and will win a third full term in November.
If my calculations are correct? My predictions in total come out as follows.
Republicans – 14
Democrats – 13
Independents – 2
Toss Ups – 5
The 2 Independent seats in question caucus with the Democrats which would likely boost them to 15 to the Republicans 14, however with the toss ups if they go in favor for the Republicans it would boost them to 19 and 20 for the Democrats if they go in their favor.
Currently the Democrats basically have control of the Senate with their 48 plus the 3 Independent Seats and the Republicans 49 and only need 2 seats to gain back control of the Senate and there is a possibility that could happen, however the toss up races will indeed be a determining factor in the outcome and November 5th 2024 without a doubt will be a nail biter.
NOTE: This is just my prediction of the outcomes and is not fact.
3 comments
The competitiveness for a meaningful majority of either party in either house of the U.S. Congress mirrors the nation’s voters’ differences on the way forward. The voters in aggregation have to decide to act in unity to cure our current dysfunctional governance. 2024 could be the election year when the congressional log jam is broken and the dynamics to establish a new governing equilibrium focused on service to the people and not the preservation of power of one party or the other is put in motion.
My dear Bradley.
Pennsylvania and Virginia are not guaranteed wins for the Democrats in the US Senate. Certain things will have to break right in both states, that is for certain. But it is possible that we could flip both states.
Good stuff though, and good call on Wisconsin being a toss up.
At this point, the U.S. will need a dictator in order to survive. Any election will just be tied up in the crooked, dysfunctional, greed based, legal system. Trump or Biden, the US has cancer.