As a former Strategic War Planner for the Joint Chiefs of Staff, student at the United States Army War College, and Professor of Strategy at the National War College, I spent my formative years on active duty reading and analyzing both the theory and practice of some of the world’s theorists and practitioners of the art of warfare. Among them were Sun Tzu the great Chinese general and strategist whose seminal work “The Art Of War” has endured from its inception 600 BC until today and Carl Von Clausewitz a Prussian general and military theorist who stressed the psychological and political aspects of waging war in his “On War” in which contains his maxim “war is the continuation of politics by other means.”
Although they practiced their craft thousands of years apart and the technology of waging war differed greatly one concept remains constant – before embarking on any armed conflict one must not only specify but also have a consensus as to what exactly is the end state of the conflict. Although the conflict in Ukraine has been raging since February 24, 2022, neither have President Biden of Trump articulated a strategy to the American people of how Ukraine will “win” the conflict, but perhaps more importantly neither have articulated to the participants (Russia, Ukraine, NATO) and the American public what must be achieved before a lasting peace can be attained.
Yes, I am a staunch supporter of President Trump, but his campaign promise to “end the war in 48 hours” once elected has long since passed and yet the conflict rages on expending the lives of thousands of Ukrainian soldiers and civilians. In addition, it appears due to the recent pause in the supply air defense missiles, the United States may be expending precious war stocks of missiles that would be utilized in a future conflict (almost inevitable) with the Peoples Republic of China in the straits of Taiwan. Unfortunately, for many reasons the industrial base that supported the “Arsenal of Democracy” that enabled the United States to rapidly mobilize in World War II no longer exists.
I suspect any future conflict will be fought per the concept of former SECDEF Rumsfeld “with what you bring to war, “ in any conflict, you must utilize the resources and capabilities you currently possess, rather than relying on what you wish you had. So again “what is the end state in Ukraine?” Until it is articulated, I unfortunately suspect Ukraine, the United States and NATO will continue to expend precious blood and capital over a conflict without an end state that has been articulated to the defenders of the free world.
6 comments
The end state in Ukraine is status quo ante — that is, Ukraine free of Russian troops, free of Russian interference in national, regional, and local politics, as well as a free Crimea returned to Ukraine.
As a self-proclaimed national security policy specialists you must be familiar with Putin’s claims that “the greatest tragedy of the 20th Century” was the loss of Russian’s Eastern European empire and his pledge to restore that empire. Or maybe you didn’t notice that.
The end game is the creation of a rump state in Western Ukraine with Russia occupying the entire East of the Dniper and probably Odessa … unless as I told you when this thing started the West gets into the conflict… Then it is WW 3.. .
The Russians are chewing up Ukrainians and the West cannot continue to keep up with Russian, Chinese and Korean factories… We have none.. only those built by foreign labor… like the shell plant in Mesquite TX… built by Turks… using Turkish production lines.
You guys better get real about the limits of American military power.
Trump meant it but failed to realize that Putin was committed 150% in seeing victory regardless of the cost. Putin believes that if Trump comes in on the side of Ukraine to the point of committing full rearmament and troops his, Trump’s, presidency is over. He likely believes that Trump will not commit. This Putin has nothing to lose by continuing his attacks. Or, the more likely explanation is that Putin is ill, reports have him deteriorating, either mentally or physically, or both and he is lashing out without regard to the consequences. It’s frightening.
I am sorry Michael, but you read too much bullshit. Putin has no reason to stop; he is winning the war at a low level of conflict. He has not mobilized the country… And his industrial base is producing armaments that the de industrialized west cannot dream of.. US shell plants cannot produce 40 k 155 mm a month. he can produce 300 k. Drones? got em. This is a wake up call for you military guys…
There is no industrial base in the US … if you fight a real opponent you’d better win it in three months or you run out of steel.. Raytheons President said he cannot maintain his production lines for US arms without Chinese components…
Do you have some wonder weapons that Trump what Russia and China has? You’d better. If you do… China already has the plans for them as they have their national contractors all over the government…
You start with insults and end with tripe. I will have no further engagement with you.
Nor I with you fool.