Florida Prof. at HuffPo Draws Logical Fallacies in Virginia Election. In other news, the sun rose in the East this morning. A Florida professor, Michael Mcdonald (i.e. someone unfamiliar with Virginia) analyzed the voting patterns in the Sturtevant-Gecker race and concluded that had Democrats voted at the same rate of Republicans Gecker would have won. He might be right, but his analysis is faulty as it is based on two improper presumptions. His conclusion is that “Democrats Lose Virginia Senate Control Because They Don’t Vote.”
The first fallacy is that any person who voted for President Obama is a “Democrat.” I’m sure there are self described independents and even Republicans who do not consider themselves Democrats who voted for Obama. These folks have no guarantee of voting along party lines in state or local races.
Second, people who vote for Democrats are not the same as “Democrats.” The Democrats who lost the Virginia Senate are the actual Democratic candidates and party officials. Everyone else who normally votes Democratic did not “lose” or “win” they simply voted at a lower perceivable rate.
Was there any comparison to 2014? What about 2013? Professor McDonald chooses a point in time, and creates a headline grabbing discussion with some lies, damn lies, statistics to back it up. Should we even care?
As of the time of this post Prof. McDonald’s HuffPo piece has over 6,000 Facebook likes, and almost 1500 Facebook shares…
