Florida Prof. at HuffPo Draws Logical Fallacies in Virginia Election.Â Â In other news, the sun rose in the East this morning. Â A Florida professor, Michael Mcdonald
(i.e. someone unfamiliar with Virginia) analyzed the voting patterns in the Sturtevant-Gecker race and concluded that had Democrats voted at the same rate of Republicans Gecker would have won. Â He might be right, but his analysis is faulty as it is based on two improper presumptions. Â His conclusion is that “Democrats Lose Virginia Senate Control Because They Don’t Vote.”
The first fallacy is thatÂ any person who voted for President Obama is a “Democrat.” Â I’m sure there are self described independents and even Republicans who do not consider themselves Democrats who voted for Obama. Â These folks have no guarantee of voting along party lines in state or local races.
Second, people who vote for Democrats are not the same as “Democrats.” Â The Democrats who lost the Virginia Senate are the actual Democratic candidates and party officials. Â Everyone else who normally votes Democratic did not “lose” or “win” they simply voted at a lower perceivable rate.
Was there any comparison to 2014? Â What about 2013? Â Professor McDonald chooses a point in time, and creates a headline grabbing discussion with some
lies, damn lies, statistics to back it up. Â Should we even care?
As of the time of this post Prof. McDonald’s HuffPo piece has over 6,000 Facebook likes, and almost 1500 Facebook shares…